"Diminishing" Red Sox and Yankees Packages for Santana

There has been such a lack of Santana news lately, that I was wondering if teams forgot he available. But Charley Walters had an update today which makes it sound more like teams have simply lost interest. The most important thing he said is that the Yankees are no longer considering parting with Phil Hughes. If Walters is accurate in this, then the Yankees have virtually eliminated any chance they had of acquiring Santana.

Walters specifically said that, "offers by the New York Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Boston Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Walters doesn't mention how the Red Sox offers for Santana have diminished, but I wouldn't be surprised if they've taken Ellsbury off the table. I'm not sure how much that affects their chances of acquiring Santana, however, as it appeared that the Twins preferred the Red Sox package which included Jon Lester.

If this is all true, then I think the Mets chances of acquiring Santana have increased. But without the Yankees involved anymore, the Red Sox chances of acquiring Santana could be as good as ever. I've said it before, and it seems to be even more and more likely now - Twins fans will probably be disappointed with the return on Santana.

Twins GM Bill Smith can only yank these teams around for so many months. If he's lost out on a chance to acquire a Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury or Fernando Martinez, it would be a very rough start to his tenure as Twins GM.

With Winter Winding Down, Twins Aren't Any Closer To A Deal

I'm sorry, but if you're not entertained by the Santana Saga, then you haven't been paying attention. I feel like the Twins should be nominated for a Soapy Award at this point; although they'd have some stiff competition in Hank Streinbrenner. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, or are perhaps a little confused, here's a recap of the happenings the past few days.

On Friday, the Yankees reportedly weren't talking to the Twins about Santana. Then just yesterday, the Yankees repordetly talked to the Twins, but just to let them know that they took their offer off the table. Then less than eight hours later, Hank Streinbrenner weighed in to let everyone know that while "there was no official offer on the table at this time", he hasn't taken his offer off the table.

In case that left you confused as well, Hank did in fact clarfiy the statement. According to Howlin' Hank, he couldn't have taken an offer off the table because "there wasn't an official offer anyway." Sometimes I wonder if Hank just says whatever he thinks will get him the most attention.

So what's developed since yesterday? Well, more of nothing mostly. According to the Star-Ledger Staff, neither the Mets or Yankees appear willing to make a deal with the Twins unless they lower their demands. The Red Sox have been at that same stage in negotiations for some time. So what's this mean?

All three teams appear to have made their final offers. The Red Sox are offering a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and also a package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, but not a package containing both Lester and Ellsbury. The Yankees would offer a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez, but not a package including both Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And the Mets are offering a package of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra but not a package including Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

Either team could quickly make a deal, by giving up the extra guy. But I don't see why any team would. The Red Sox likely believe that they have the best offer. Hank Streinbrenner has said that the thinks his team has the best offer. And the Mets probably don't feel a need to add a fifth prospect to their deal given the fact that they're the only National League team in the running, and they're Santana's desired landing point. Furthmore, they're probably the only team of the trhee with a realistic chance of being able to acquire Erik Bedard.

I seriously doubt that the Twins will go into the season without having dealt Santana. Whether he's bluffing or not, Santana has said that he won't accept a midseason trade. So if the Twins don't deal him before the season begins, the Twins run the risk of getting nothing but two sandwhich picks in the draft when Santana walks.

The Boston Herald, with the help of Baseball America, gave a run down on the three packages which the Twins could currently select from. The article classifies the Mets package as risky, given the fact that most of the players are years removed from being major league ready. The article also classifies the Yankees package as lightweight, given the fact that it includes one blue chip player and two throw-in caliber players.

And I think most fans outside of New York would agree with both statements. If the Twins want the safest return for Satnana, it would likely be the Red Sox package. The Red Sox package includes the most major league ready talent, and fills the most immediate needs for the Twins. The Yankees package offers the Twins a possible ace, but little else. And the Mets package offers the Twins the most overall talent, although little to none of it is major league ready.

For any Yankees fans worried about losing Phil Hughes, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Accepting a package of Hughes, Melky and Marquez probably wouldn't be in the best interests of the Twins. And there's absolutely no chance that the Yankees would give up both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a package for Santana. Although, if it's the Red Sox that acquire Santana, Yankees fans may be wishing otherwise for the next six or seven years.

Why We Wait

There are now officially 40 days left until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. We are deeply entrenched in winter. I don't know about you guys, but where I live it's been around 20-25 degrees out lately. At the moment, it feels as if the baseball season may never return.

So to keep up morale in these discouraging times, I've advised a plan. I'm going to try out a series of posts called "Why We Wait". And for each one, I'll list a reason why while the Red Sox season may seem far away, it will all be worth it come late March.

Today's reason - beating up the Yankees. No regular season win is quite so sweet as one that comes at the hands of our hated rivals. The first Red Sox/Yankees series of the 2007 series was especially sweet.

In the first game of the series, the Red Sox scored five runs in the 8th inning, to beat the Yankees by a run. Mariano Rivera blew his second straight save opportunity and Hideki Okajima notched his first major league save. Then, in the second game, the Red Sox won the series behind Josh Beckett. It was the final game of the series, however, that was most sweet.

On April 23rd, the Red Sox swept the series in dramatic fashion. They tied a major league record by hitting back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs off of Yankees prospect Chase Wright. I can imagine Yankees fans thinking, "it's alright, no one was on" after the first home run. Then they probably thought, "alright, at least we're still up by a run" after the second home run. After the third, I'm sure they couldn't believe how they just lost their lead. And after the fourth I'm sure some of them had to turn off the TV for a little while.

Watch the video and relive the magic.

Conflicting News On Santana

There was also conflicting news regarding the Mets. Peter Gammons says he thinks the Mets are attempting to stockpile talent with which to trade for Santana. John Heyman thinks the Mets are offering Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, and Kevin Mulvey for Johan Santana. Seems strange that the Twins haven't taken the deal then.

On the other hand, Mike Francesca is saying that the Twins are demanding Jose Reyes, which will never happen. And to wrap things up, Keith Law is saying that the Mets would never trade Fernando Martinez for Santana, given that there's only one year left on his current contract.

Given the multitude of Mets news, and their conflicting nature, it's likely that some of this is misinformation. The Twins might be trying to make it look like a deal is eminent, in order to get the Red Sox or Yankees to increase their offers. However, there have already been two false reports of eminent deals, one to the Yankees, then one to the Red Sox. And to this point, no one's increased their offers.

Hank Steinbrenner also weighed in on Santana. He implied that Yankees offer of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez could be back on the table. Although, there are no indications that the Yankees are any more interested in a deal. According to Hank the Yankees have "already made the best offer". He's likely referring to the Yankees offer of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez which is in reality is somewhat weak.

Santana News Is Back, Yanks Still Unlikely

Despite news to the contrary for the past month, many fans, and even writers have speculated that the Red Sox are only involved in Santana talks to drive up the price for the Yankees. Why would the Red Sox be involved to drive up the price for the team least involved in Santana talks? Peter Abraham reiterated today, that "there are no indications that the Yankees will suddenly get back into the mix for Johan Santana."

You have to be careful with news like this, as teams routinely provide misinformation to the media. But to anyone who still thinks the Yankees are heavily involved in Santana talks, I challenge you to provide one piece of evidence that the Yankees have been involved since the Winter Meetings. In the words of a Yankees team source, "we pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." The New York Post, as well as several other sources, have confirmed that the two teams "have not seriously discussed players with the Twins" since the winter meetings."

The package which the Yankees offered the Twins is widely believed to involve Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez. But the New York Daily News reported back in early December, that the Yankees took that deal off the table. These seems to confirm other reports that the Yankees haven't had a deal on the table since the Winter Meetings.

So why exactly would the Red Sox be driving up the price? In reality, the Red Sox have been the team most involved in Santana talks. And without competition, there's a good chance that the Red Sox current package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson is the best offer available to the Twins. The Red Sox would be crazy not to take that deal, even if they were involved just to drive up Santana's price.

Yankees Offense Due for Recession In 2008

Going into the 2007 season, there was speculation that the Yankees offense was primed to score north of 1,000 runs on the year. Yet, even with career years from Posada (+.103 OPS from 2006) and Rodriguez (+.153 OPS from 2006) the Yankees still fell short of the mark. So what happened?

Well, to put it most simply, aging. The Yankees went into 2007 with two members of their regular lineup younger than their age 33 season. And while you'd be hard pressed to see declining trends in the production of many of the aging Yankees vets going into last season, the age of 33 or 34 is typically when players begin to hit a wall.

And hitting a wall is exactly what much of the Yankees offense did in 2007. Bobby Abreu posted the worst OPS of his career. Both Matsui and Giambi posted the second worst OPS's of their career in 2007, and Damon posted the third worst OPS of his career in the same year. But those numbers don't tell the entire story.

Of all the members of the Yankees offense, Giambi's declining production is probably most concerning. Giambi figures to start the season as the Yankees starting first baseman. And even if he doesn't play the entire season in that role, he'll likely receive quite a bit of playing time there as the Yankees would prefer to DH Matsui and don't have a solid option as a backup first baseman.

Jason Giambi will be 37-years-old in 2008 and is riddled by health issues, likely related to his previous PED use. Last year, Giambi had an OPS of .790 which is well below average for a first baseman. He also struck out every 3.84 at bats, striking out more often than he got a hit. Most concerning about Giambi, however, is the way he breaks down under the wear of the season. Last year, he hit .200/.323/.429 in the second half of the season, even though he only played in 83 games, with the vast majority of his playing time coming as a DH.

Giambi's offensive decline is rather radical, but he's only one member of the offense. The decline in Abreu and Matsui's offense is also concerning. Both players are key members of the Yankees offense who both scored and drove in 100 runs last year. His OBP fell right off the table from a lofty .424 to .369. As for Matsui, his AVG and SLG fell for the second straight season in 2007.

But a continued aging process isn't the only reason the Yankees offense will take a hit in 2008. As previously stated, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both had monster career years last year. The likeliness of either one of those players putting up back to back career years are remote. They are especially remote for Posada, a catcher in his age 35 season.



And one factor which will especially hurt the Yankees offense is their decision to DH Hideki Matsui. Defensively, it may be a necessity as Matsui's defensive abilities have really fallen off. But offensively, it forces the Yankees to play Melky Cabrera in center. And Melky, more than any other Yankee, kills New York's offense.

Any outfielder who puts up an OPS of .718 should not have a starting job on a serious contender like the Yankees. Cabrera's offensive production as a regular player ranked near dead last among the league, even when compared to the weak hitting position of centerfield.

Holiday Wrap Up

Not too much new news making the rounds. This is likely due to the fact that most teams are taking time off for the holidays. Legitimate free agent and trade talk probably won't start again until after the New Year.

A few days ago, it was reported that David Ortiz didn't think the Red Sox would trade for Johan Santana. What was lost on most readers, however, is that the comment was supposed to be a joke. He followed up his statement by saying, "[Minnesota] already gave Boston too many good things already. Me, and now Santana? No way." And Rotoworld added, "don't forget Kevin Garnett and Randy Moss."

Then today, Murray Chass had an "update" on the Santana talks. According to Chass, the Twins have realized that they aren't going to get Ian Kennedy, so they've inquired on Jeff Marquez. But this is more recycling of old news than it is an update. It was reported three weeks ago that Marquez had been substituted for Kennedy in trade talks with Santana. It was also reported that the Yankees still weren't willing to make a deal, even after the substitution.

If this is new news, then I must be psychic. I've already discussed the merits of a Yankees package including Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez.

Be sure to vote on the poll to the right, concerning Jon Lester's win total next year. The poll will be closed in four days and I'll be moving on to bigger and better things.

No, You Should Be A Yankees Fan

In order to explain this story, I'll have to first provide a small bit of background information. I come from a very large family which is about 90% Red Sox fans. My grandfather raised his five children to be Red Sox fans, and in turn those children have raised almost all of their thirty or so children to be Red Sox fans. There is one exception.

One of my uncles has never been a large baseball fan so he didn't really instill Red Sox allegiance in any of his kids. And so only one of his sons has grown up to become a Red Sox fan while the other son roots for the Yankees. Most of us live in New York so that's nothing out of the ordinary.

The two sons, on opposite sides of the rivalry are around the ages of sixteen and seven. The older is a Red Sox fan while the younger prefers the Yankees. At our Christmas gathering earlier today, the elder son was picking on his younger brother. He was telling him how the Yankees are slowly falling apart year by year, and how if he wants to enjoy a team he should switch over to the Red Sox.

So what did I do? I told the younger kid, "no, you should be a Yankees fan." I explained how the Yankees have an incredible history and no one should be ashamed to root for them. Then I said how the team you grow up rooting for is sacred. Once you pick a team, you should stick with them because one of the greatest things in baseball is the loyalty their fans typically display towards their teams.

And I truly believe that. I'm not sure how much my younger cousin understood of what I said, given his age. But I've never been one to try to "convert" people to being Red Sox fans. Have I influenced a few former girlfriends to root for the "good guys"? Sure, but I let them choose on their own whether or not to follow baseball and most of them have chosen to support my love of the Red Sox, often becoming involved in the team themselves.

It's a love of the game that matters most, before allegiances to any team. At least that's what I've always believed.

Open Letter From Red Sox Nation

Well, at least for one member of it. Just like any fan, I have no power or control over other fans of my team, so I can only speak for myself. Recently, this "holiday greeting card" was brought to my attention. Take a quick look at it, it only takes a moment.

For most sports fans, the greeting card is probably humorous. And for some reason, the old guy in the chair reminds me of Freddy "Sez" Shuman, the guy who walks around Yankees games with a pot and a spoon. I don't know, maybe cause they're both old?

Anyways, for one friend of mine, who's a Yankees fan, it wasn't all that humorous. And no, I didn't send it to him, I'm a very polite Red Sox fan. He took it as an opportunity to point out what he thought was wrong with Red Sox fans.

According to my friend, it's not that they're cocky, it was because Red Sox fans have a kick-em-while-they're-down mentality. Now I give my friend credit for not claiming he dislikes Red Sox fans because they're cocky. Because that would have been a pretty lame excuse. Yankees fans are notorious for their "confident" and "bold" attitudes themselves. And when a fan base's favorite team does well, I feel as if they kind of have a right to to be a little cocky.

But this "kick-them-while-they're-down-mentality" I found to be especially interesting. Now the Red Sox haven't been all that successful until this decade. And growing up as a Red Sox fan in the early and mid-90's I seem to remember a certain fan base that kicked me while I was down quite a bit.

After all, from 1918 until 2004, there weren't many sports teams as down as the Boston Red Sox. They didn't just lose, they're lost in grandiose fashion. The Red Sox lost back-to-back-to-back-to-back World Series Game Sevens. In fact, every World Series they went to from 1918-2004, they lost in a Game 7, and often in heartbreaking fashion. An example of which would be Enos Slaughter's "Mad Dash" pictured below.

I doubt there are many Yankees fans out there who have never uttered the year "1918". When Aaron Boone came to the plate in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, there were grown men dressed in ghost costumes in Yankee Stadium. And when Red Sox fans left the stadium that night, I doubt Yankees fans were all that concerned about kicking them while they were down.

Yankees fans kicked Red Sox fans while they were in the midst of one of the most painful 86 years in any baseball team's history. So it doesn't make sense for them to complain about it now, when they've only been on the other end of it for a few years. In fact, given the manner in which Yankees fans have beat down Red Sox fans for the better part of a century, it shouldn't come as any surprise how much Red Sox fans enjoy turning the tables.

The best piece of advice I can think of for Yankees fans who feel as if they're being kicked while they're down, would be develop a sense of humor. A quirky sense of humor has certainly helped Red Sox fans through quite a bit of heartbreak. You can't let insults towards your team get under your skin. Red Sox fans have been the butt of jokes for a long, long time, so I doubt they're going to let up any time soon.

Can Red Sox fans be dicks? Sure they can, and many Red Sox fans can take things too far. But let's be honest, that behavior is not at all exclusive to Red Sox fans. On behalf of Red Sox fans everywhere, I apologize for any over-the-top rude behavior which they've displayed lately. And in the spirit of the holidays, I extend to fans all over baseball the proverbial olive branch.

Sincerely,

Ethan Michaels

Four Reasons the Yankees Will Not Advance

The Royal Rooters spent quite a bit of their time engaged in debate about the rival Boston Braves. The Braves are now long gone and have been replaced by an even more bitter rival - the New York Yankees. So, in the spirit of The Royal Rooters, I thought I'd take a moment to put the Yankees in their place. Here are five reasons why the Yankees won't see the ALCS this year.

1. Lions In September, Mice In October - The Yankees have had some offensive trouble as well lately. Both Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera have hit below the Mendoza line in September. It's hard to predict even how their hottest hitters will do in October however.

Last year, A-Rod's best month of the year was September. He hit .358/.465/.691 for an OPS of 1.157. Come October however, A-Rod hit under .150 for the second postseason in a row. A-Rod has posted his highest strikeout total of any month this September, striking out more than once every four at bats. Could it be a sign of things to come?

The Yankees have lead the major leagues in runs scored, each of the past regular seasons. Come playoff time however, they haven't been able to average more than four runs a game in either one of the last seasons. 2006 was an especially horrendous series for the Yankees offensively, as they compiled a batting average of .246.

2. Bullpen Inferiority - The Yankees bullpen has been an issue for them all year. It's not really fair to compare the two team's bullpens. The Indians have one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Some of the bullpen arms they can trust include Betancourt (1.47 ERA), Perez (1.78 ERA), Lewis (2.13 ERA) and Fultz (3.03 ERA). Fultz is the only one of those pitchers who does not have more strikeouts than innings pitched.

When it comes to the Yankees however, they essentially only have two bullpen arms which they can trust. One of them is Mariano Rivera, but the other one is rookie Joba Chamberlain, who has never pitched in the postseason. Former Yankees set up man Luis Vizcaino, has really struggled lately. Perhaps his 77 appearances have caught up with him as he's had an ERA over 10 in September.

3. Sabathia and Carmona - Sabathia and Carmona are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league. Both pitchers were in the top 10 in the league in wins, ERA and WHIP. Sabathia could be especially tough for the Yankees. The Yankees have done poorly against lefty starters this season (19-19). They also haven't faced Sabathia in years. The Yankees will have to face those pitchers on the road, where they've gone 42-39 this year.

4. Starting Woes - Outside of Chien-Ming Wang, every member of the Yankees playoff rotation is a question mark. Pettitte, typically one of the best September pitchers in baseball, has really struggled down the stretch. In September, he's had an ERA of 5.86, a WHIP of 1.67 and a BAA of .324. That's good for his worst September in over nine years.

By the time Clemens gets the ball in game three of the ALDS, he will have gone 20 days without pitching. There have been jokes that Clemens will be pitching with his arm on a thread. His real issue however is his hamstring, which is an infamously pesky injury. The last time Clemens pitched in the postseason with a hurt hamstring, the results were disastrous. He blew up in the ALDS and then again in the World Series, lasting only 2 innings. His postseason ERA in that year of 2005, was 5.63.

And finally, we arrive at the Yankees fourth starter, Mike Mussina. Mussina lost his rotation spot after completely falling apart in August. After stringing together two quality starts in a row, Mussina again got lit up, allowing six runs on 11 hits in his last outing. He didn't get out of the fifth inning.