How Does the Mets Package Stack Up?

Carlos Gomez (Jim McIsaac/Agence France-Presse)

The latest on Santana, courtesy of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, is that Twins officials have privately said that they expect Santana to be dealt by Spring Training. The article also says that while the Red Sox and Yankees are still involved, the Twins have showed the most interest in the Mets offer lately.

That Mets offer includes Carolos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The only problem is, most baseball fans I'm sure have little to no idea what kind of prospects those players are. And it doesn't help that respected prospect rankings by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus aren't due for another month. But thankfully, there's John Sickels of minorleagueball.com.

Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book. He looks at the top 20 prospects in every organization, and assigns them letter grades based on their value. When trying to compare trade packages made up mostly of prospects, these simplified prospect ratings can be very useful.

The Mets package for Santana is rumored to consist of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are attempting to get the Mets to add Fernando Martinez to the deal, but they aren't the one with leverage in the situation. The Twins have to unload Santana, they don't have the monetary resources to retain him.

So what kind of prospects are the Mets offering? Their package includes three pitchers in Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. Guerra received a rating of B+, making him the highest rated player in the package. But he's yet to pitch above the Single-A level. Molvey and Humber received grades of B and B- respectively. And both of them are likely to begin the season in Triple-A.

Carolos Gomez is the only position player in the deal. Sickels rated him a B prospect. He's kind of a toolsy outfielder with average plate discipline and little power.

So what's the positive of the Mets package? It offers more pitchers than any other package. All four players offered in the deal will also be cost controlled for many years to come. By accepting the Mets offer, the Twins would also be dealing Santana to a team outside of the American League.

On the other hand, the players in the package have virtually no major league experience. And none of the players that the Mets are offering have true star potential. There's no great position player or pitching prospect.

This makes it almost the opposite of the Red Sox package. The Red Sox are offering the package with the most major league experience when compared to all other packages available for Santana. And the Red Sox are also offering a package which has the most high quality talent out of any package available.

The Red Sox package of Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson contains two grade A- position players and a grade B pitcher. Or if the Twins want more major league experience and a wider range of players, they could go for the Red Sox package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. That package could potentially fill two rotation spots, the Twins need for a center fielder, and their need for a middle infielder who can actually hit.

Based on the talent available in the deals, I find it hard to believe that the Twins would prefer the Mets package based on the return alone. But the Twins would likely prefer to deal Santana to the National League. And Santana would prefer to go to the National League as well, where he'd likely dominate weaker hitting competition.

Masterson vs. Marquez

I have a reader who insists that Yankees minor league pitcher Jeff Marquez is hands down better than Red Sox minor league pitcher Justin Masterson. Usually I'd say, "who cares"? But given the importance of both pitchers in any potential Johan Santana deal, this may actually be of some relevance. And since there's no important news today, why not discuss it?

Justin Masterson is a 22-year-old right handed sinkerball pitcher in the Red Sox minor league system. He was drafted out of San Diego State in 2005, and he finished last season at Double-A Portland in the Eastern League.

Jeff Marquez is a 23-year-old right handed sinkerball pitcher in the Yankees minor league system. He was drafted out of Sacramento City College in 2004, and he finished last season at Double-A Trenton in the Eastern League.

So far, the pitchers are rather similar. Masterson is a bit younger, and has developed a bit faster. Two years removed from college, he's pitching at the Double-A level. In contrast, Jeff Marquez was pitching at the Rookie level when he was two years removed from college. But other than that, they're pretty similar. That is, until you consider how they've fared over their minor league careers.

Masterson last year pitched 58 innings in the Eastern League. Over that time, he allowed 7.60 hits, 2.79 walks and struck out 9.16 batters for every nine innings that he pitched. In that same league, Marquez pitched 155.1 innings. Over that time, he allowed 9.62 hits, 2.55 walks and stuck out 5.45 batters for every nine innings that he pitched. At the same level Marquez had the better ERA and BB/9. Masterson had the better WHIP, H/9, HR/9, K/9 and WHIP. And Masterson was better in all of those categories, with a year less of minor league experience.

Now, in the face of this evidence, I have a feeling how a Yankees fan might respond. "But Marquez is a sinkerball pitcher, his hit and strikeout rates don't have to be low to be affective. Look at Chien-Ming Wang." That ignores the fact that Masterson is also a sinkerball pitcher, but I'll entertain it anyways. Why not?

Sinkerball pitchers don't necessarily have to strike out batters. And since they pitch to contact, their hit rates are typically higher. What a sinkerball does need to do, however, to be affective, is induce ground balls. So let's take a look at ground out to fly out ratios. Marquez last year had a GO/FO of 1.36 last year. Decent, but not even half as good as the GO/FO ratio of 3.52 which Masterson posted in the same exact league.

Still not satisfied that Marquez isn't the better pitcher? Perhaps you'll be swayed when I tell you that over the entirety of their minor league careers, Masterson has posted a better WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, and K/9 than Marquez. He's also done with less time to develop. And his numbers have been better even though he pitched most of his innings in Lancaster, which could seriously be the most hitter-friendly ballpark in professional baseball.

So, I've yet to see a reason to believe that Marquez is the better pitcher. They both throw hard mid-90's sinkers and both have decent mastery of their secondary pitches. But if anyone thinks they have an argument as to why Marquez is the better pitcher, feel free to share it.

Prospect Profile - Justin Masterson

Masterson was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft. He got off to a fast start as a reliever at the Single-A level that same year, posting an ERA of 0.85 and a WHIP of 0.65, while striking out more than a batter an inning. He put those numbers up over 14 relief appearances (31.2 innings) in Lowell.

To begin the 2007 season, Masterson was switched back to a starter in notoriously hitter friendly Single-A Lancaster. To give you an idea of just how hitter friendly Lancaster is, the majority of the Lancaster lineup hit .330 or better last year. Two regulars had a slugging percentage better than .650 and of all the members of the team with at least 150 at bats, all but four had a SLG above .490.

Still, Masterson managed to keep a cool head and hold his own. Over 95.2 innings of work, Masterson posted an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.31. Considering the atmosphere in which he was pitching, those numbers are pretty impressive. Masterson managed to limit the damage by walking only 2.07 batters for every nine innings of work and getting two ground ball outs for every out made in the air.

After surviving the gauntlet that is Lancaster, Masterson was promoted to Double-A Portland in July. At Portland, Masterson was quick to impress. In his first appearance, he pitched 6.2 innings of no-hit baseball. The only baserunner he allowed was Lyle Overbay, who walked twice while rehabbing. Overbay then broke up the no-hitter in the 9th inning.

Masterson went on to recorded six quality starts in his first six Dobule-A appearances. His ERA was 1.04, while he struck out 32 batters over his first 26 innings of work. In his seventh and eighth minor league starts, however, Masterson struggled giving up 15 runs over 10 innings of work. Those runs inflated his overall ERA to 4.34.

Still, even with the inflated ERA, Masterson's numbers were incredibly solid. Masterson allowed only 7.60 hits for every nine innings of work, helping him to earn an WHIP of 1.16 while he struck out more than a batter an inning. What was truly impressive however was Masterson's ability to induce ground balls.

In his 58 innings of work at Double-A Portland, Masterson posted an absolutely absurd ground out to fly out ratio of 3.52. That's a better ground out to fly out ratio than any major league pitcher managed last year. In fact, since 1999, only one major league pitcher has ever posted a ground out to fly out ratio better than 3.50, and that was Brandon Webb.

So how does Masterson fit in to the organization's future plans? Well, at the moment it seems rather likely that his largest contribution may be to help acquire Johan Santana in a trade. Just like Jacoby Ellsbury, the Twins are very high on Masterson, who is still only 22 years old. Masterson is likely to be included in any deal for Santana, as his inclusion in a deal is one of the many reasons the Twins appear to prefer trade packages offered by the Red Sox.

But, should the Red Sox miss out on Santana, Masterson projects to be promoted to the major leagues some time around the second half of 2008. He could fill in for an injured starter if the need arises, or he could get rather regular time out of the Boston bullpen. Given how quickly Masterson took to the role of a reliever last year, Masterson could be rather valuable in that role.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him take to the majors rather quickly and he could do so fairly soon should he be dealt to the Twins. He's faced higher levels of competition with quite a bit of focus and intensity. When promoted to Single-A and then Double-A he immediately put up some head turning numbers.

Red Sox Remain In Lead For Santana

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins and Red Sox continued to talk yesterday. The Twins reportedly have the most interest in Jacoby Ellsbury, and any Ellsbury package would likely include Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, and another prospect.

Meanwhile, talks with the Yankees remain unproductive. To give you an idea of just how unproductive they've been, Kei Igawa is one of the names that has come up. As for the Mets and Angels, there really isn't any new news. Christensen even speculates that the Mets be be in trade talks simply for PR reasons.

In the end, the Red Sox may win Santana by default. A package of Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and a prospect may not be worth Santana, but it fits the needs of the Twins a lot better than a package of just Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect. Other than being cost controlled, Melky Cabrera isn't all that desirable. Defensively he's average, and offensively he ranked 10th of of the 13th in OPS among centerfielders that qualified last year.

I certainly don't like the idea of trading away Jacoby Ellsbury, but his value may never be higher than it is now. And looking at some of Santana's numbers over the years, it's easy to be persuaded.

Over the past four years, Santana has averaged 228 innings per year, an ERA of 2.89, WHIP of 0.99 and 246 strikeouts a year. Not to mention, he won two Cy Young Awards unanimously in 2004 and 2006.