Masterson vs. Marquez

I have a reader who insists that Yankees minor league pitcher Jeff Marquez is hands down better than Red Sox minor league pitcher Justin Masterson. Usually I'd say, "who cares"? But given the importance of both pitchers in any potential Johan Santana deal, this may actually be of some relevance. And since there's no important news today, why not discuss it?

Justin Masterson is a 22-year-old right handed sinkerball pitcher in the Red Sox minor league system. He was drafted out of San Diego State in 2005, and he finished last season at Double-A Portland in the Eastern League.

Jeff Marquez is a 23-year-old right handed sinkerball pitcher in the Yankees minor league system. He was drafted out of Sacramento City College in 2004, and he finished last season at Double-A Trenton in the Eastern League.

So far, the pitchers are rather similar. Masterson is a bit younger, and has developed a bit faster. Two years removed from college, he's pitching at the Double-A level. In contrast, Jeff Marquez was pitching at the Rookie level when he was two years removed from college. But other than that, they're pretty similar. That is, until you consider how they've fared over their minor league careers.

Masterson last year pitched 58 innings in the Eastern League. Over that time, he allowed 7.60 hits, 2.79 walks and struck out 9.16 batters for every nine innings that he pitched. In that same league, Marquez pitched 155.1 innings. Over that time, he allowed 9.62 hits, 2.55 walks and stuck out 5.45 batters for every nine innings that he pitched. At the same level Marquez had the better ERA and BB/9. Masterson had the better WHIP, H/9, HR/9, K/9 and WHIP. And Masterson was better in all of those categories, with a year less of minor league experience.

Now, in the face of this evidence, I have a feeling how a Yankees fan might respond. "But Marquez is a sinkerball pitcher, his hit and strikeout rates don't have to be low to be affective. Look at Chien-Ming Wang." That ignores the fact that Masterson is also a sinkerball pitcher, but I'll entertain it anyways. Why not?

Sinkerball pitchers don't necessarily have to strike out batters. And since they pitch to contact, their hit rates are typically higher. What a sinkerball does need to do, however, to be affective, is induce ground balls. So let's take a look at ground out to fly out ratios. Marquez last year had a GO/FO of 1.36 last year. Decent, but not even half as good as the GO/FO ratio of 3.52 which Masterson posted in the same exact league.

Still not satisfied that Marquez isn't the better pitcher? Perhaps you'll be swayed when I tell you that over the entirety of their minor league careers, Masterson has posted a better WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, and K/9 than Marquez. He's also done with less time to develop. And his numbers have been better even though he pitched most of his innings in Lancaster, which could seriously be the most hitter-friendly ballpark in professional baseball.

So, I've yet to see a reason to believe that Marquez is the better pitcher. They both throw hard mid-90's sinkers and both have decent mastery of their secondary pitches. But if anyone thinks they have an argument as to why Marquez is the better pitcher, feel free to share it.

Holiday Wrap Up

Not too much new news making the rounds. This is likely due to the fact that most teams are taking time off for the holidays. Legitimate free agent and trade talk probably won't start again until after the New Year.

A few days ago, it was reported that David Ortiz didn't think the Red Sox would trade for Johan Santana. What was lost on most readers, however, is that the comment was supposed to be a joke. He followed up his statement by saying, "[Minnesota] already gave Boston too many good things already. Me, and now Santana? No way." And Rotoworld added, "don't forget Kevin Garnett and Randy Moss."

Then today, Murray Chass had an "update" on the Santana talks. According to Chass, the Twins have realized that they aren't going to get Ian Kennedy, so they've inquired on Jeff Marquez. But this is more recycling of old news than it is an update. It was reported three weeks ago that Marquez had been substituted for Kennedy in trade talks with Santana. It was also reported that the Yankees still weren't willing to make a deal, even after the substitution.

If this is new news, then I must be psychic. I've already discussed the merits of a Yankees package including Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez.

Be sure to vote on the poll to the right, concerning Jon Lester's win total next year. The poll will be closed in four days and I'll be moving on to bigger and better things.

Santana - Why the Red Sox Package Makes Sense

When news of a possible Santana deal first broke, Peter Gammons speculated that it would take a package including Chien-Ming Wang or Robinson Cano, plus a premium prospect. Months later, the Twins are struggling just to get a premium prospect. I think it's fair to say that the demand for Santana isn't as high as many expected it to be.

This is likely due to a few factors. First of all, the salary that Santana would command really limits to the teams he could be dealt to. And the list of teams that the Twins could match up with in a trade is even further limited by Santana's no-trade clause. It's unclear which teams Santana would accept being dealt to, but most likely due to financial restrictions, only a few teams showed serious interest in Santana: the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As for a Mets, they simply didn't have the prospects to be a good match. And so any Santana deal would require them to give up a major piece of their major league team such as Jose Reyes. To no one's surprise, the Mets didn't bite.

As for the Yankees, Brian Cashman has become very conservative about trading young prospects. The Twins had to fight so hard to get Phil Hughes included in a deal, that once the did, the Yankees were unwilling to budge on any more talent. The best package that the Yankees seem willing to provide is a rather weak package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez. And if Cashman had his way, Hughes wouldn't even be on the table.

So that leaves the Twins with the Red Sox. Like other teams, the Red Sox aren't willing to offer a star major league player in return for Santana. But the Red Sox do offer one thing that other teams don't, multiple quality prospects in Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. In addition to offering multiple quality prospects, the players the Red Sox are offering, would also fill the most holes for the Twins.

The Twins need a center fielder, a middle infielder, and since they've already dealt Matt Garza, they could use multiple pitching prospects. Ideally, those pitching prospects would be able to help out the major league team either in 2008, or fairly soon after.

The quantity available in the Red Sox package makes sense for the Twins for multiple reasons. First of all, the more cost controlled players the Twins receive in a deal, the more money they'll be saving on the free agent market. This has to be an utmost concern for a cost conscious team such as the Twins.

By dealing Santana for multiple quality prospects, it also diversifies the Twins investment. You could consider Johan Santana capital, and the Twins would be trading in that capital for stocks, which the they hope develop into good investments. Well, if the Twins were to trade Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez, what would happen if Hughes didn't work out as well as he's projected to? They'd lose almost all of the value that they received in the deal.

On the other hand, if the Twins were to acquire Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, they could still get a good deal of value out of the deal if one of those prospects didn't work out. Would the Twins be getting equal value for Santana? No. But the Twins are in a rather odd position in that regard.

If the Twins do not trade Johan Santana, they would not be able to afford him when he hits the free agent market next year. And if Santana leaves via free agency, which he almost certainly would, the Twins would receive only two sandwich draft picks for compensation. That chances of those draft picks being as valuable as Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson are very remote.

The Twins could go into the season with Santana, hoping to trade him at the deadline, but Santana has said that the wouldn't allow a trade mid-season. So the Twins will likely have to take whatever the best offer is on the table going into next season. Currently, that offer appears to be that of the Red Sox, and there are no indications that other teams are willing to offer a better deal.

I expect the Twins to play poker a little longer, hoping the Red Sox will up their offer with the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury. In the end, however, the Twins will likely have to give up their bluff, as they aren't the ones holding the cards. They simply don't have the money to afford Santana, so they'll have to get the best value possible for him. And in order to do that, they'll have to trade him soon, even though it's not the best market for him.

Yankees Not In On Santana? Why Their Package Isn't Enough

Earlier today, Newsday cited a source "with knowledge of the situation", who on behalf of the Yankees said, "I don't see it happening with us. We pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." Now I don't know about you, but I find it highly unlikely that the Yankees are completely out.

My personal opinion, is that the Yankees at this point aren't willing to give up Hughes and another quality prospect. They've demonstrated a strong unwillingness to include a player such as Chamberlain or Kennedy. And such unwillingness seems rather intelligent. They've also been unwilling, however, to include less valuable prospects such as Alan Horne, Jose Tabatha, or even Austin Jackson.

Whether that thinking will be best for the organization has yet to be seen, but what's clear now is that it's likely not the type of thinking that could land them Santana. I don't think any reasonable fan doubts the value of Phil Hughes. He projects as an ace, and is likely to be better than anyone offered in a Red Sox package. But the Yankees best offered package of Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez offers very little talent in addition to Hughes.

Melky Cabrera's greatest asset is his price. He will be cost controlled for years to come. But his abilities as a baseball player aren't very impressive to anyone outside of New York. Melky's power is very limited, he's slugged only .391 the past two seasons and his patience at the plate is inconsistent. Last year, among center fielders who qualified, Cabrera ranked 10th out of 13th in OPS. And even if he does eventually live up to his minor league line, an OPS of .769, his offensive output would be average for the weak hitting position of a center fielder.

On the defensive side, Cabrera has a rocket for an arm. But I don't think it quite makes up for his limited range and poor instincts. I play softball with some Yankees fans, and when someone takes a poor route to a fly ball, they dub that "pulling a Melky". When someone misjudges a ball at the wall that used to be a "Milledge" but after Delmon Young misjudged a David Ortiz walkoff home run last year, it's now more popularly known as a "Delmon".

As far as Jeff Marquez, it's not as if he doesn't have potential. Marquez is a 23-year-old sinkerball pitcher in the Yankees farm system. He typically throws in the low 90's and has a plus change but he needs much more development. Marquez doesn't have the ability to strike many batters out, and throughout his minor league career he's allowed more hits than innings pitched, which is concerning considering he's only in Double-A. He also has an injury history, which sidelined him for much of his 2006 season.

If the Yankees were serious about Santana, they'd definitely have to add more value to their package. It takes more than one high quality prospect to acquire any ace in a trade, let alone one considered the best pitcher in baseball. But as of now, it looks like they'll be content to go with the players they have, even if that means the Red Sox may acquire the Twins ace.