The Polls Are Closed: What's Your Opinion On Santana?

The polls are now closed and well over 100 people have spoken. The second most popular selection in the poll was that neither Red Sox package of prospects was worth giving up for Santana. But 26 more voters (and 50% of the voters overall) said that they'd give up the Lester, Lowrie package for Santana. Only 9% of voters, however, were willing to give up Ellsbury and Lowrie in a package for Santana.

And I have to say that I actually agree with the results. While I would much prefer that the Red Sox keep Ellsbury, I would be happy with dealing Lester, Lowrie, Crisp and Masterson for Santana. I'm fully aware that Santana will come with a steep price tag, and I expect Lowrie to be a pretty good middle infielder for years to come. And Lester could potentially be a front of the rotation starter who costs more than $25 milllion a year less than Santana. But the addition of Santana to a Red Sox rotation consisting of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling and Buchholz, is just too exciting to pass up. I don't think it's realistic to expect even the best of pitching prospects to be as good as Santana. A pitcher of Santana's caliber only comes around once an era, not once every few years.

If the Red Sox were to acquire Santana, I wouldn't expect him to put up 2004 numbers. He's not going to put up a WHIP of 0.92 facing AL East hitters in Fenway Park. And I doubt that Santana will ever strike out 265 batters in a season again. But I would expect Santana to be one of the best three pitchers in the American League over the next five years. And that would give the Red Sox an absolutely lethal pitching rotation.

Of course, Santana would take up quite a bit of payroll. And there is a rather high risk in taking on a six or seven year contract with any pitcher. Just Thursday, Buster Olney said that he heard from a talent evaluator who suspects that Santana might have a health issue. But that is of course speculation at this point. Most talent evaluators probably have a different explanation for Santana's sub-par season last year.

How Does the Mets Package Stack Up?

Carlos Gomez (Jim McIsaac/Agence France-Presse)

The latest on Santana, courtesy of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, is that Twins officials have privately said that they expect Santana to be dealt by Spring Training. The article also says that while the Red Sox and Yankees are still involved, the Twins have showed the most interest in the Mets offer lately.

That Mets offer includes Carolos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The only problem is, most baseball fans I'm sure have little to no idea what kind of prospects those players are. And it doesn't help that respected prospect rankings by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus aren't due for another month. But thankfully, there's John Sickels of minorleagueball.com.

Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book. He looks at the top 20 prospects in every organization, and assigns them letter grades based on their value. When trying to compare trade packages made up mostly of prospects, these simplified prospect ratings can be very useful.

The Mets package for Santana is rumored to consist of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are attempting to get the Mets to add Fernando Martinez to the deal, but they aren't the one with leverage in the situation. The Twins have to unload Santana, they don't have the monetary resources to retain him.

So what kind of prospects are the Mets offering? Their package includes three pitchers in Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. Guerra received a rating of B+, making him the highest rated player in the package. But he's yet to pitch above the Single-A level. Molvey and Humber received grades of B and B- respectively. And both of them are likely to begin the season in Triple-A.

Carolos Gomez is the only position player in the deal. Sickels rated him a B prospect. He's kind of a toolsy outfielder with average plate discipline and little power.

So what's the positive of the Mets package? It offers more pitchers than any other package. All four players offered in the deal will also be cost controlled for many years to come. By accepting the Mets offer, the Twins would also be dealing Santana to a team outside of the American League.

On the other hand, the players in the package have virtually no major league experience. And none of the players that the Mets are offering have true star potential. There's no great position player or pitching prospect.

This makes it almost the opposite of the Red Sox package. The Red Sox are offering the package with the most major league experience when compared to all other packages available for Santana. And the Red Sox are also offering a package which has the most high quality talent out of any package available.

The Red Sox package of Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson contains two grade A- position players and a grade B pitcher. Or if the Twins want more major league experience and a wider range of players, they could go for the Red Sox package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. That package could potentially fill two rotation spots, the Twins need for a center fielder, and their need for a middle infielder who can actually hit.

Based on the talent available in the deals, I find it hard to believe that the Twins would prefer the Mets package based on the return alone. But the Twins would likely prefer to deal Santana to the National League. And Santana would prefer to go to the National League as well, where he'd likely dominate weaker hitting competition.

With Winter Winding Down, Twins Aren't Any Closer To A Deal

I'm sorry, but if you're not entertained by the Santana Saga, then you haven't been paying attention. I feel like the Twins should be nominated for a Soapy Award at this point; although they'd have some stiff competition in Hank Streinbrenner. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, or are perhaps a little confused, here's a recap of the happenings the past few days.

On Friday, the Yankees reportedly weren't talking to the Twins about Santana. Then just yesterday, the Yankees repordetly talked to the Twins, but just to let them know that they took their offer off the table. Then less than eight hours later, Hank Streinbrenner weighed in to let everyone know that while "there was no official offer on the table at this time", he hasn't taken his offer off the table.

In case that left you confused as well, Hank did in fact clarfiy the statement. According to Howlin' Hank, he couldn't have taken an offer off the table because "there wasn't an official offer anyway." Sometimes I wonder if Hank just says whatever he thinks will get him the most attention.

So what's developed since yesterday? Well, more of nothing mostly. According to the Star-Ledger Staff, neither the Mets or Yankees appear willing to make a deal with the Twins unless they lower their demands. The Red Sox have been at that same stage in negotiations for some time. So what's this mean?

All three teams appear to have made their final offers. The Red Sox are offering a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and also a package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, but not a package containing both Lester and Ellsbury. The Yankees would offer a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez, but not a package including both Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And the Mets are offering a package of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra but not a package including Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

Either team could quickly make a deal, by giving up the extra guy. But I don't see why any team would. The Red Sox likely believe that they have the best offer. Hank Streinbrenner has said that the thinks his team has the best offer. And the Mets probably don't feel a need to add a fifth prospect to their deal given the fact that they're the only National League team in the running, and they're Santana's desired landing point. Furthmore, they're probably the only team of the trhee with a realistic chance of being able to acquire Erik Bedard.

I seriously doubt that the Twins will go into the season without having dealt Santana. Whether he's bluffing or not, Santana has said that he won't accept a midseason trade. So if the Twins don't deal him before the season begins, the Twins run the risk of getting nothing but two sandwhich picks in the draft when Santana walks.

The Boston Herald, with the help of Baseball America, gave a run down on the three packages which the Twins could currently select from. The article classifies the Mets package as risky, given the fact that most of the players are years removed from being major league ready. The article also classifies the Yankees package as lightweight, given the fact that it includes one blue chip player and two throw-in caliber players.

And I think most fans outside of New York would agree with both statements. If the Twins want the safest return for Satnana, it would likely be the Red Sox package. The Red Sox package includes the most major league ready talent, and fills the most immediate needs for the Twins. The Yankees package offers the Twins a possible ace, but little else. And the Mets package offers the Twins the most overall talent, although little to none of it is major league ready.

For any Yankees fans worried about losing Phil Hughes, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Accepting a package of Hughes, Melky and Marquez probably wouldn't be in the best interests of the Twins. And there's absolutely no chance that the Yankees would give up both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a package for Santana. Although, if it's the Red Sox that acquire Santana, Yankees fans may be wishing otherwise for the next six or seven years.

2008 Bill James Hitter Projections

Jacoby Ellsbury - .320/.374/.436, 78 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 42 SB

Dustin Pedroia - .300/.369/.436, 77 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI
David Ortiz - .298/.407/.587, 109 R, 40 HR, 130 RBI
Manny Ramirez - .301/.405/.552, 99 R, 33 HR, 113 RBI
Mike Lowell - .282/.349/.459, 64 R, 17 HR, 81 RBI
J.D. Drew - .278/.393/.465, 90 R, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB
Kevin Youkilis - .290/.399/.454, 89 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI
Jason Varitek - .253/.349/.418, 60 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI
Julio Lugo - .266/.331/.380, 76 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 26 SB

The Handbook loves Ellsbury. He's spectacular at hitting for average and he'll be hitting in a very batting average friendly park. In his worst minor league stint in 2006, Ellsbury still hit .295 and got on base at a rate of .375. In case you're wondering why his runs are so low, this assumes that Ellsbury plays 125 games next season.

The Handbook also projects a somewhat severe decline in Lowell's totals (-.071 OPS). I'd have to agree that Lowell is unlikely to put up a season like 2007, as it was a career year. Perhaps Fenway's friendly confines can help his offensive numbers from declining sharply as he ages. The Handbook also projects a minor sophomore slump for Pedroia (-.018 OPS).

On the flip side, the Handbook sees rebound seasons for Manny (+.076 OPS), Drew (+.062 OPS) and Lugo (+.068). I wouldn't be surprised to see Lugo bounce back even more in the 9 hole. Lowell hit .305/.353/.483 in that spot in the order last year. Those numbers are similar to the ones he put up with Tampa Bay in 2005 and 2006.

According to these projections, the average OBP of a Red Sox regular would be .375. That, however, doesn't take into account the fact that different players will get different amounts of at bats. The two members of the Red Sox likely to have the lowest OBP's (Varitek and Lugo) will get the least amount of at bats at the bottom of the order.

Who knows how accurate these specific totals will be. What's more important to me, is how likely it is that the Red Sox offense will improve next year if these overall numbers are at all accurate. Ellsbury will likely make a large difference at the top of the order, both in scoring runs and in providing depth to the lineup. Youkilis, who routinely has OBP's around .385 will be one of the batters furthest down in the order. The Red Sox would no doubt also be helped by a healthy David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.

Will the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored? Probably not. But you have to be happy when a championship team's offense is likely to improve.

Sox On the Basepaths

Kelly O'Connor

In addition to providing projections for hitters and pitchers in 2008, the Bill James Handbook also rates the base running abilities of players. James provides every hitter in the majors a baserunning rating. These ratings are based on how factors such as bases taken, advances on outs, advancing extra bases on balls put in play, stolen bases, and outs made on the basepaths.

I'll provide two numbers. The first number is their baserunning rating. The second number is the percentage of the time that a player scored once they got on base (largely dependent on their spot in the order).

Jacoby Ellsbury: +13, 31%
Dustin Pedroia: +3, 34%
David Ortiz: +5, 30%
Manny Ramirez: -1, 29%
Mike Lowell: -11, 23%,
J.D. Drew: +6, 33%
Kevin Youkilis: +10, 28%
Jason Varitek: -23, 22%
Julio Lugo: +20, 29%

Alex Cora: 33%, +3
Coco Crisp: 35%, +37

Based on this information, you could make a case for Youkilis batting second in the order. He is a much better baserunner than Pedroia. Last year, Youkilis was rated the best baserunner on the team. For the second year in a row, Varitek was the team's worst baserunner. Overall in 2007, the Red Sox ranked as the 11th best baserunning team in the majors.

Will Man-Ram Return To Greatness In '08?

What do the years 1998 and 2007 have in common? Those are the last two years in which Manny Ramirez didn't lead American League outfielders in OPS. So what can we expect from the AL's best offensive outfielder in 2008? Well, that's the "beauty" of Manny; no one really knows.

Ramirez was hurt by two things last year. Firstly, he got off to an especially slow start at the plate. In the first half of the season Manny hit just .284/.385/.465. But this is nothing new. In 2005, Manny's best offensive season with the Red Sox, he hit only .275/.361/.549 in the first half.

Ramirez isn't always in the best shape when he comes into Spring Training. Often times, he'll show up late. And when he does show up, he doesn't always look ready to play. Will things be different in 2008? Who knows.

I will say one thing though, and I mean this half jokingly, half serious. If Manny shows up to Spring Training in shape and on time this year, for the first time in many years, he could be primed for quite the year.

There are signs that Ramirez is finally realizing he isn't 30 any more. According to Peter Gammons, Manny's become a "manicle workout warrior". Manicle is Gammons' word, not mine. Gammons provides a brief first hand account of Manny's workouts, describing them as "extremely difficult."

Then, there is the second issue which hampered Manny's performance in 2007. For the second year in a row, Ramirez missed significant time due to an injury. Ramirez has typically been rather consistent with his health, playing 150+ games a season. The last two years, however, his playing time has been more like 130 games a year. Fortunately, Manny's 2006 and 2007 injuries are likely unrelated.

In 2006, Manny Ramirez suffered from patellar tendinitis in his right knee. In 2007, he suffered from a strained oblique in his right leg. Each injury caused him to miss about a month of playing time. I'm no doctor, but in my opinion, these injuries are likely related to the age of Ramirez. Patellar tendinitis specifically isn't an injury usually seen in baseball players. It is more often seen in basketball and soccer players, as it is a sign of excessive wear on the knee joint.

Manny Ramirez is going to be 36-years-old in 2008. I think he's clearly at risk for injury, but at this point in his career I wouldn't label him an injury liability. Even when he has been hurt, he's played 130+ games. Getting into better physical shape could lower his risk for injury. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see him need a little time off in the second half of 2008.

If Ramirez plays a full season in 2008, I see no reason why he couldn't hit 40 home runs and drive in 120. He finally appears to be happy in Boston, and he'll be playing for a $20 million team option in 2009. Ramirez will also have some serious OBP guys in front of him in Ellsbury (.394), Pedroia (.380) and Ortiz (.445). And after Lowell's 2007 season, pitchers and managers may be more wary of pitching around Ramirez.

But even if he misses some time to injury, he could still lead American League outfielders in OPS as he did in 2006. Oh yeah, and seal his Hall of Fame candidacy with his 500th home run. Unless, of course, he pulls a Roger Clemens.

Gammons Against Santana Deal

In his chat, Peter Gammons provided his opinion on a possible Red Sox trade for Johan Santana. In the words of Gammons:

"The more I’ve thought about the Santana deal, the more I’m convinced it’s not a great idea. Whether it’s the Ellsbury deal or the Lester deal, the Sox would still be giving up three young players and I don’t discount the importance that Lowrie will play in the next couple of years."

I definitely agree that a deal for Santana including Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie would not be in the best interests of the team. I love Johan Santana but dealing the Red Sox two best position prospects in order to acquire him would clearly hurt the team's future. It makes me nervous that this deal may still be on the table.

I think the Red Sox could absorb the loss of Lester a little more easily, given the team's superb pitching staff. But either way, the Red Sox will be dealing Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie's major league production is anywhere near his .850+ Minor League OPS's, Lowrie would become one of the best shortstops in baseball.

Top 5 Red Sox Prospects

1. Clay Buchholz, 23-Year-Old RHP

Clay Buchholz might just be the best pitching prospect in baseball, so he's a shoo-in for best Red Sox prospect. Buchholz to this point in his career has done everything right. Throughout the minors, he walked only 2.43 batters and struck out 11.23 hitters in every nine innings of work.

What makes Buchholz so special is the strength of his secondary pitches. The young pitcher's fastball sat in the low-90's for most of his career. At the end of 2007, however, Buchholz's fastball was sitting at 96 mph and it's his third best pitch. His arsenal of secondary pitches is what will likely make him an affective major league pitcher.

That arsenal includes two change ups, a curve ball, and a slider. His straight change up is his best out pitch. It sits at around 80 mph, about 15 mph off his fastball. Buchholz also possesses a strike out 12-6 curve ball which buckles the knees of hitters. For reference, see the last out of Buccholz's no-hitter, in which Nick Markakis sat helplessly with his bat on his shoulder.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, 24-Year-Old CF

After being a World Series hero, winning the Rookie of the Year Award doesn't sound all that exciting. But going into the season, Ellsbury is one of the most likely candidates. He's all a team could ask for in a leadoff hitter and center fielder. He's a left-handed slap hitter, who consistently puts the ball in play, gets on base, and advances on the bases once he gets on.

Ellsbury's also a defensive center fielder worthy of taking over for Coco Crisp. While he's not quite at Crisps's level, he's still one of the best defensive center fielders in the majors. His arm is only average, but it's pretty accurate. After Crisp and Damon, any arm at all is an improvement.

As of yet, Ellsbury doesn't have much power, but he is young. If he eventually develops 15-20 home run power, he has the potential to be one of the best center fielders in the majors. But as of now, his OBP and speed work perfectly at the top of the Red Sox batting order, even if he isn't going to hit home runs.

3. Jed Lowrie, 23-Year-Old SS

Lowrie possesses the plate discipline typical of so many Red Sox position players. Over his minor league career, he's gotten on base at a rate of .386. What makes Lowrie especially valuable though, is his developing power.

Lowrie slugged over .500 last year in significant time at both Double-A and Triple-A. That degree of power is incredible for a middle infielder. In fact, only 5 middle infielders slugged .500 or batter last year at the major league level. Lowrie's power, combined with the fact that he's a switch hitter, makes him a valuable commodity. So the Red Sox might look to capitalize on his trade value while it is high.

Defensively, Lowrie is an average shortstop. He could be the Red Sox shortstop of the future, but the Red Sox would like him to improve on his throwing accuracy. If he is dealt to Minnesota, he would likely start the major league season as a second baseman where his throws would be shorter.

4. Justin Masterson, 22-Year-Old RHP

Like any sinkerball pitcher, Masterson's career success is difficult to predict. But Masterson isn't the typical sinkerballer. He allows very few hits or walks, and has struck out more than a hitter an inning at every stop but Lancaster, which is notorious for being hitter friendly. Masterson's upside is tremendous.

Similar to Derek Lowe, Masterson has shown great potential both as a starter and reliever. Masterson has the strange ability to vary the speed of his sinker from 84-94, and he gets an insane amount of ground balls. He has a good slider, and a work-in-progress changeup. If he develops those pitchers further, he could make a quality top of the rotation starter.

Even at this point in Masterson's development however, he may be able to play a major league role similar to that of Julian Tavarez. Based on a team's needs, Masterson could be an average reliever or a back of the rotation starter.

5. Ryan Kalish, 19-Year-Old CF

At only 19 years of age, Kalish is already a four-tool-athlete, with the build to possibly develop power as well when he ages. Kalish was just drafted in 2006, and the organization worked with him quite a bit prior to his 2007 season. The work appears to have paid off. Looking at Kalish's Single-A line of .368/.471/.540, you'd think he played at Lancaster, but he in fact put those numbers up over 87 at bats in Single-A Lowell.


Kalish is a very exciting player for his age. He's got all the raw talent, including the ability to steal 18 bases last year in 23 games. If he develops the mental aspect of his game to match his physical abilities, he could have a bright future. He probably projects best as a right-fielder for the Red Sox, given his strong arm. If the Red Sox are patient with him and give him a full year at every level of the minors, he might be ready to take over for Drew in 2012, or perhaps even sooner.

Red Sox Still Have Holes to Fill

Since the Red Sox became involved in talks regarding Johan Santana, more than a month ago, they haven't made a single move. Not only do Santana talks require quite a bit of the team's attention, but it prevents the Red Sox from discussing trades involving many players such as Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson.

When the new year comes in a couple days, and the Twins return to the negotiating table, the Red Sox will have some decisions to make. The best possible outcome of the new year, would be a quick resolution of the Santana talks, in which Santana is dealt to either the Red Sox or the Mets. That way the Red Sox could focus on filling up the remaining holes in their roster.

If, however, Santana talks continue to be drawn out for weeks to come, the Red Sox options for their remaining needs of a backup catcher, backup corner infielder and backup outfielder may be somewhat limited. And the Red Sox may have to settle with the bullpen they have, rather than adding some additional insurance and depth to their relief staff.

Backup Catcher - If the season began today, the Red Sox would most likely go with minor leaguer Dusty Brown (career stats) as their backup catcher. Brown hit .268/.344/.453 last year at the Double-A level, and is an excellent defensive catcher with a good arm. But he's yet to play more than eight games at the Triple-A level, and the Red Sox may prefer a more proven option.

If the Red Sox retain Coco Crisp, they could deal him for Rangers backup catcher Gerald Laird. Both teams expressed interest in such a trade before the Santana talk began. Laird is another stellar defensive catcher with a great arm. But unlike Brown, he projects to eventually become an everyday catcher, which would make him more appealing to the Red Sox.

Laird hit .310/.380/.562 at the Triple-A level in 2005, but he's yet to come into his own as a major league offensive threat. In 2006, Laird had a solid line of .296/.332/.473 but last year he had a bizarre off year. Not only did he not hit, but he didn't field either, having the lowest fielding percentage of all catchers in 2007.

If the Red Sox trade Crisp in a Santana deal. They could either fall back on a free agent such as Doug Mirabelli or the more expensive Johnny Estrada. Or the Red Sox could attempt a trade for someone like Michael Barrett, who's stock has taken a dip.

Backup Corner Infielder - The only player I know of that the Red Sox have made a formal offer to is Ryan Klesko. Klesko would be a good hitting backup and would provide a left-handed bat off the bench to oppose the right-handed bats of Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell. Defensively, however, Klesko is challenged.

If the Red Sox prefer a more defensive minded option, they could go with free agent Jeff Cirillo. Cirillo is a lefty killer who plays both corner infield spots well. He also hit .340/.375/.500 with runners in scoring position last year, something which could make him a valuable option off the bench for both defense and offense.

Backup Outfielder - Whether or not the Red Sox acquire Santana, they're going to deal Crisp somewhere else. Ellsbury is their center fielder of the present and future and Crisp has said that he won't take a backup role. If Crisp is dealt, Bobby Kielty has said that he'd return to the Red Sox as a free agent. Kielty could provide an alternative to Drew when the Red Sox face lefties, but Kielty didn't hit lefties very well last year.

The Red Sox may prefer the cheaper option of promoting from within. Brandon Moss could be a valuable backup outfielder. He has above average speed for a corner outfielder and has the arm to play even right field. And offensively, Moss has a steady, effective approach at the plate. He hit .282/.363/.471 at Triple-A last year, and .280/.379/.440 in 15 games with the Red Sox.

I like Moss a lot. Even if he never reaches his full potential as a power hitting corner outfielder, I still like his steady, solid approach to the game. He can field, he can throw, he's a patient hitter, and he can hit both lefties and righties. He strikes out a bit too much, but he is only 24 and once he manages his strike out totals, his offensive output could increase quite a bit. I'd like to see what he could do in more time at the major league level.

That covers the major needs of the Red Sox going into 2008. As stated earlier, they may also look to add another reliever. That's more of a luxury than a necessity, however, with Okajima and Delcarmen already on the roster. It's easy to get excited about the Red Sox with all their pitching depth, offense, and good young prospects.

But before getting too excited, you have to remember that there are important spots on the roster which the Red Sox have yet to fill. Once they have found a backup catcher, infielder and outfielder, I'll be able to rest more easily. Although, with the Red Sox great farm system, I have a feeling many of these positions will be won in Spring Training, with Red Sox minor leaguers providing firm competition to any free agents who may be brought in.

Ellsbury Brings the Art of Leadoff Hitting Back to Boston

From 2003 through 2005, the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored (they scored the second most in 2002). Then in 2006, the Red Sox fell to 9th in that same category, and last year finished fourth in the league. Many aspects of the Red Sox offense have changed in between 2005 and now.

There have been smaller contributing factors such as the decline of Varitek's offense and there have been some larger factors, such as Manny Ramirez's poor health the past two years. But in my opinion, the largest difference between the Red Sox offense of 2005 and the Red Sox offense the past two years has been their lack of a true leadoff hitter.

The past two years, the Red Sox have had a tough choice to make. They could go with someone like Coco Crisp, who has plenty of speed, but only gets on base at a rate of around .325. Or they could go with someone like Youkilis, who gets on base at a rate of around .385 but has virtually no speed. Finally, in 2007, the Red Sox will likely have a player with both.

Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Red Sox the offensive catalyst that they've lacked since Johnny Damon. Ellsbury can definitely get on base. He did so at a rate of .394 during the regular season last year with the Red Sox. Over his minor league career he got on base at a rate of .389.

And speed? Does he ever have speed. In just his third major league game against the Texas Rangers, Ellsbury stole second and then later scored from second on a passed ball. He went a perfect 11-0 on the base paths last year with the Red Sox. Ellsbury's Jose Reyes-like speed is something he's demonstrated throughout his baseball career.

In high school, Ellsbury didn't have to slide once while stealing a base. In college, Ellsbury was 60-16 on the base paths. Over his minor league career, he was 105-27 in stolen base attempts, with 12 of those caught stealings coming at the Single-A level. Ellsbury was named the Red Sox minor league base runner of the year in 2006. That's not the only award Ellsbury won in 2006.

That same year, Ellsbury was also named the Red Sox defensive player of the year. And while great defensive play won't help the Red Sox offense, it will help the Red Sox win games. Ellsbury's a complete player. His power isn't anything special, but it's not bad for his age. And with his speed and base running abilities, he really doesn't need any power to score runs. His arm in center will significantly better than what the Red Sox have had at that position in almost a decade.

Ellsbury is a catalyst not only because of his incredible skills, but also because of when he uses those skills best. He has a flair for the dramatic, and propensity for the big hit. Ellsbury had 10 home runs over his minor league career. But in only 33 games with the Red Sox, he hit three, two of them providing the difference in the game. Ellsbury also managed to hit .455/.500/.545 with runners in scoring position, and .471/.550/.647 with runners in scoring position and two out.

And in October, when it mattered most? Ellsbury lead the Red Sox in hits, doubles, stolen bases, average, and on base percentage. He was second to only Mike Lowell in both runs scored and slugging percentage. Ellsbury was so good, that the Red Sox didn't lose a single playoff game in which he had an at bat.

What else could you ask for?

Prospect Profile - Justin Masterson

Masterson was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft. He got off to a fast start as a reliever at the Single-A level that same year, posting an ERA of 0.85 and a WHIP of 0.65, while striking out more than a batter an inning. He put those numbers up over 14 relief appearances (31.2 innings) in Lowell.

To begin the 2007 season, Masterson was switched back to a starter in notoriously hitter friendly Single-A Lancaster. To give you an idea of just how hitter friendly Lancaster is, the majority of the Lancaster lineup hit .330 or better last year. Two regulars had a slugging percentage better than .650 and of all the members of the team with at least 150 at bats, all but four had a SLG above .490.

Still, Masterson managed to keep a cool head and hold his own. Over 95.2 innings of work, Masterson posted an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.31. Considering the atmosphere in which he was pitching, those numbers are pretty impressive. Masterson managed to limit the damage by walking only 2.07 batters for every nine innings of work and getting two ground ball outs for every out made in the air.

After surviving the gauntlet that is Lancaster, Masterson was promoted to Double-A Portland in July. At Portland, Masterson was quick to impress. In his first appearance, he pitched 6.2 innings of no-hit baseball. The only baserunner he allowed was Lyle Overbay, who walked twice while rehabbing. Overbay then broke up the no-hitter in the 9th inning.

Masterson went on to recorded six quality starts in his first six Dobule-A appearances. His ERA was 1.04, while he struck out 32 batters over his first 26 innings of work. In his seventh and eighth minor league starts, however, Masterson struggled giving up 15 runs over 10 innings of work. Those runs inflated his overall ERA to 4.34.

Still, even with the inflated ERA, Masterson's numbers were incredibly solid. Masterson allowed only 7.60 hits for every nine innings of work, helping him to earn an WHIP of 1.16 while he struck out more than a batter an inning. What was truly impressive however was Masterson's ability to induce ground balls.

In his 58 innings of work at Double-A Portland, Masterson posted an absolutely absurd ground out to fly out ratio of 3.52. That's a better ground out to fly out ratio than any major league pitcher managed last year. In fact, since 1999, only one major league pitcher has ever posted a ground out to fly out ratio better than 3.50, and that was Brandon Webb.

So how does Masterson fit in to the organization's future plans? Well, at the moment it seems rather likely that his largest contribution may be to help acquire Johan Santana in a trade. Just like Jacoby Ellsbury, the Twins are very high on Masterson, who is still only 22 years old. Masterson is likely to be included in any deal for Santana, as his inclusion in a deal is one of the many reasons the Twins appear to prefer trade packages offered by the Red Sox.

But, should the Red Sox miss out on Santana, Masterson projects to be promoted to the major leagues some time around the second half of 2008. He could fill in for an injured starter if the need arises, or he could get rather regular time out of the Boston bullpen. Given how quickly Masterson took to the role of a reliever last year, Masterson could be rather valuable in that role.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him take to the majors rather quickly and he could do so fairly soon should he be dealt to the Twins. He's faced higher levels of competition with quite a bit of focus and intensity. When promoted to Single-A and then Double-A he immediately put up some head turning numbers.

Santana Talks Plodding Along, Sox Still Favorites

The St. Paul Pioneer Press is reporting that the Red Sox remain the favorites the land Johan Santana. As has been previously reported, the Twins would instantly accept a deal including both Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox, however, are apposed to including Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Santana.

The only real new news in the article, is that a deal may be imminent in the next few days. It's hard to tell whether that bit is based on fact, or was simply thrown in to get people to read the article, filled with mostly recycled news.

If the Red Sox could find a way to trade for Santana, without including Ellsbury, it would be a huge steal. It looks like the Twins are going to go with the same strategy that Billy Beane attempted in the Dan Haren trade. Rather than acquiring one Type A prospect, the Twins would prefer quantity to quality. Not that Jon Lester isn't a quality prospect, he was billed as the Red Sox top prospect only years ago.

Both sides will likely feel each other out for a little longer. Still, the Twins have waited things out for many weeks now and the Red Sox still have the best offer on the table. The Yankees, it appears, would not be willing to give up Joba Chamberlain and would be very hesitant to give up Phil Hughes or any high rated prospects in the lower minors. And the Twins appear to prefer Lester over Kennedy, because Lester is left-handed and has more major league experience.

Eventually, the Twins will tire of waiting things out, and likely accept the Red Sox offer. It appears more likely than not that the Red Sox will acquire the Twins ace. But anything could happen at the last minute. Perhaps the Yankees will change their mind if the Twins come to them saying they're about to deal Santana to the Red Sox.

Red Sox Remain In Lead For Santana

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins and Red Sox continued to talk yesterday. The Twins reportedly have the most interest in Jacoby Ellsbury, and any Ellsbury package would likely include Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, and another prospect.

Meanwhile, talks with the Yankees remain unproductive. To give you an idea of just how unproductive they've been, Kei Igawa is one of the names that has come up. As for the Mets and Angels, there really isn't any new news. Christensen even speculates that the Mets be be in trade talks simply for PR reasons.

In the end, the Red Sox may win Santana by default. A package of Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and a prospect may not be worth Santana, but it fits the needs of the Twins a lot better than a package of just Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect. Other than being cost controlled, Melky Cabrera isn't all that desirable. Defensively he's average, and offensively he ranked 10th of of the 13th in OPS among centerfielders that qualified last year.

I certainly don't like the idea of trading away Jacoby Ellsbury, but his value may never be higher than it is now. And looking at some of Santana's numbers over the years, it's easy to be persuaded.

Over the past four years, Santana has averaged 228 innings per year, an ERA of 2.89, WHIP of 0.99 and 246 strikeouts a year. Not to mention, he won two Cy Young Awards unanimously in 2004 and 2006.