Friday, January 25, 2008


This is just a heads up, I'm going to be very busy over the next week. There likely won't be all that many posts over that time. But I'll try to make up for it when I return in full force some time around next weekend. Hope everyone has a good week. If I'm not back by Super Bowl Sunday, good luck Giants fans (you're gonna need it).


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Joba Chamberlain

3) You may have heard of this fellow. Best known to big league fans as a dominant setup guy, Chamberlain is best cast as a four-pitch starter who projects as a true No. 1 starter. He has a four-pitch repertoire where all pitches project as average or better: a plus 94-98 mph four-seamer, a toxic 83-87 mph slider with good tilt and variable break, an 11/5 curveball with good depth, and a straight 81-84 mph changeup with good arm speed. The fastball and slider are already big league out pitches and in relief, he can probably get away without the other two pitches. Chamberlain has a great pitcher's build with broad shoulders and the height to get good downhill plane on his pitches, and his arm is quick. He's battled his weight in the past, leading to knee trouble, and he had bicep tendinitis in college that allowed him to fall to the Yankees in the supplemental round.

Jose Tabata

21)Tabata was in the top 10 last year, but a nagging hamate injury ended his 2007 season early, requiring surgery in August. Tabata has a quick bat and great hand-eye coordination, and he squares up balls as well as anyone on this list. He also has good pitch recognition, although that can manifest itself in working the count to get to a fastball he can drive. His raw power hasn't shown up in games, which could be explained by the hamate injury; hand and wrist injuries sap power, and full recovery from a broken hamate bone can take up to a year. Tabata can play center but has been bumped to right field by fellow Yankee prospect Austin Jackson (No. 24), and Tabata should be plus there with an above-average arm. He'd rank higher if the hamate problem was fully behind him, but until that becomes clear, there's still some risk here.

#24) Austin Jackson
Jackson is my favorite kind of hitting prospect -- the athlete with a clue. Jackson was a top basketball prospect in high school, but the Yankees flexed their financial muscles and gave him first-round money in the eighth round, a move that looks brilliant in hindsight because of how advanced Jackson is for a multi-sport prospect. Jackson has good speed, a solid-average arm in center and good instincts on fly balls, but still has some work to do at the plate. His setup is excellent and his path to the ball is short, but he needs to continue working on keeping his weight back to get more power from the contact he makes, and he's too eager to chase the ball up. He's a potential middle-of-the-order bat because of his power and improving plate discipline.

#45) Ian Kennedy

Kennedy's stuff alone would put him in the lower reaches of this list. He is here because he has superb command of average or fringe-average stuff, so superb that he is going to succeed in the majors where many guys with superior stuff will fail. He works with a fringe-average fastball that touches 90 mph on occasion but mostly falls in the 87-88 mph range, and he commands it to all four edges of the zone. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, slightly above average with some tailing action, but it works extremely well because he keeps his arm speed consistent. His curve is solidly average as well. Kennedy repeats his delivery as well as any prospect on this list, commands all of his pitches and has a great feel for pitching. With plus stuff, he would be in the top 10 overall, but with his stuff, he will have to settle for an upside as a borderline No. 3 starter or a great No. 4 starter.

100) Andrew Brackman

Brackman is out for 2008 after elbow surgery, but he was one of the best amateur prospects in the country heading into last spring. He gets great downhill plane on a 91-97 mph fastball and shows signs of a plus breaking ball, with clean mechanics for someone so tall. His major league contract works against him.[/quote]

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#19 Jacob Ellsbury

#28 Lars Anderson

#55 Jed Lowrie

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Rob Neyer's Ranking the best center fielders

Before I present the list of candidates for Best Center Fielder of the Next 5 Years, I'll tell you this: there are only three serious candidates for the No. 1 spot. Maybe four. See if you can spot them ...

Curtis Granderson 27 .361 .552 136 10.4
B.J. Upton 23 .386 .508 136 5.7
Josh Hamilton 27 .368 .554 131 3.3
Hunter Pence 25 .360 .539 130 6.2
Nick Swisher 27 .381 .455 127 5.6
Carlos Beltran 31 .353 .525 126 8.4
Aaron Rowand 30 .374 .515 123 7.8
Torii Hunter 32 .334 .505 122 5.5
Ichiro Suzuki 34 .396 .431 122 8.7
Grady Sizemore 25 .390 .462 122 6.3

Those are the top 10 center fielders of 2007, OPS+-wise (and it's a long drop from Sizemore to No. 11 Marlon Byrd). Looking at a list of players with at least 50 games in center field last season, I see three others who should be considered, if only because of their youth: Arizona's Chris Young, New York's Melky Cabrera and Chicago's Felix Pie. One might also argue for Vernon Wells, who certainly is paid like a top-10 guy and should bounce back this year from his shoulder injury.

Running through the guys in the table ...

• As a hitter, Granderson was a bit over his head last season, but he's obviously an outstanding player. What shocks me is that Upton, four years younger, was just as good with the bat. The Rays spent far too long realizing that Upton's not an infielder, and it's impossible to know how he'll fare in center field, long term. But he's always looked like a center fielder to me, and I have a faith-based belief that he'll be just fine out there.

• Speaking of impossible, does anybody have any idea if Hamilton can do for a whole season what he did last season in roughly half a season? Hamilton turns 27 this spring, and he's never played more than 101 games in a professional season. I suspect we're all pulling for him, and he's one of the reasons we think the Rangers have a real shot at second place this year. But we simply need to see him stay healthy and stay clean for a year or two before we consider him among the best in his chosen profession.

• There's little point in questioning Pence's bat, as he's hit everywhere he's played. Is he a center fielder, though? The Astros don't seem to be sure; he didn't become a full-time center fielder until late in the 2006 (minor league) season. The scouts don't seem to be sure; at least when he was in the minors, opinions were divided. The numbers aren't sure; he did well in BP's Fielding Runs Above Average last season, but not well in John Dewan's +/-. Earlier I mentioned that maybe there are four candidates for No. 1 on our list of future center fielders. Pence is the maybe, and it's because of the questions about his defense.

• Beltran's also one of the smartest baserunners around, which doesn't necessarily show up here. The guy's just a great baseball player, period. Injuries remain a concern.

• Swisher played mostly right field with the A's, but according to this story he'll get most of his action with the White Sox in center. Initially, at least. My guess is he winds up in one of the corners within a few years.

• Rowand's a fine player, but he's 30, his style of play doesn't generally lead to productive 30s, and ditto for his .343 career OBP. He may still be a good and valuable player in 2011 and '12. But one of the 10 best center fielders in the majors?

• Same goes for Hunter, who's older than Rowand, just as OBP challenged, and not as good with the glove as his reputation suggests.

• If we're looking out five seasons, Ichiro obviously doesn't belong here ... but among the 34-year-old stars in the majors right now, I think he might be the most likely to retain much of his value for another five years. I'm not saying he's going to keep hitting .350 and stealing 35 bags and winning Gold Gloves every season. I'm saying he's better than Kenny Lofton ever was, and Lofton's still playing at 40.

• And finally we come to Sizemore, and the most controversial thing I'm going to write today ... Sizemore is not a good center fielder. Am I sure about that? No. But I've got two systems in front of me -- BP's Fielding Runs and Dewan's +/- -- and both suggest that Sizemore's average with the glove. At best. Yes, they could be wrong. But these days the metrics have become sophisticated enough that if they come to a consensus about a player and you disagree, you have to figure out why they're wrong (it used to be the other way around).

Last summer I wrote something about the Granderson-Sizemore comparison, and I came down (just barely) for Sizemore because he's 17 months younger. But his defense now gives me pause. While I think they'll be roughly the same hitter in 2008, I also think Granderson will play Gold Glove-caliber defense and Sizemore won't. If the Indians had a good center fielder in the minors, I might even predict that Sizemore will find a new position in a few years. Which leads to my top 10 ...

1. B.J. Upton
2. Curtis Granderson
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Hunter Pence
5. Chris Young
6. Carlos Beltran
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Felix Pie
9. Josh Hamilton
10. Jay Bruce

Perhaps I've been too aggressive here with the youngest players. I do feel good about Upton, but the others -- Young, Cabrera, Pie -- really haven't been good yet in the majors. Hamilton's obviously a wild card, and perhaps there should be a place on this list for Wells. Meanwhile, there are a bunch of hot center fielders coming up, and so I've strayed from convention and filled in that last slot myself. It just seems to me that when you've got a player who's the consensus No. 1 prospect, he's your guy. Better, though, over the next five years than Wells and Rowand?

As always, I invite your thoughts [/quote]..

Who says Melky's overrated? Good for Melky, He's rank #7

Anonymous said...

Anon, considering that only 13 CF had 400 AB last year, that would still put Melky at below average for a regular CF.

I'll tell you what, let me know when Melky actually puts up the numbers to justify the hype. Until then, he's overrated.

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