The Ump Bump wrote a story about their thoughts on Manny's production next year, and his chances of retiring with the Red Sox. It's definitely worth a read if you have the time. If you don't, I'll summarize the important points.
"Under that baggy, pajama-like uni, the man is rock-hard."
Manny getting into great shape this offseason isn't much of a factor, he's always in great shape. His injuries are likley the result of his age, not him being out of shape.
"To me, he’s an easy first-ballot Hall of Famer. If he retires with Boston, they’re sure to retire his number. Is he really going to walk away from that? And is Theo really going to let him? I don’t think so."
Ramirez has two rings with the Red Sox, and finally got through a year without asking to be dealt. He has the most history with the Red Sox and I agree that Epstein won't let a first ballot Hall of Famer walk away. I think Epstein wants to retain both Ramirez and Varitek until they retire. If either player leaves the Red Sox before retiring, Red Sox rules wouldn't allow for their numbers to be retired.
The Ump Bump's story was inspired by one over at MVN. The MVN article discusses the chances of Manny bouncing back next season, and quotes Peter Gammons on the subject. Sound familiar? If it does, that's probably because I used the same quote in an article on the same exact subject less than two weeks ago.
Showing posts with label Jason Varitek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jason Varitek. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
More News On Mirabelli
Mirabelli's 2008 contract is reportedly worth a base salary of $550,000. Incentives could make it worth as much as $1 million. It's not the salary that most interested me, however. Along with salary figures, the Boston Herald is reporting that the Red Sox originally attempted to sign Mirabelli to a contract without a guaranteed salary.This would seem to indicate that the Red Sox are losing faith in the backup catcher. I think it's likely that they'll bring in other options to compete for the job in Spring Training. And if Mirabelli doesn't make the team, his $.55 million salary wouldn't be difficult to eat.
Mirabelli's main competition is likely to be Red Sox minor league catcher Dusty Brown. Brown hit .268/.344/.453 with Double-A Portland last year, and he offers the same quality defense that Mirabelli brings to the table. To this point Red Sox minor league catcher George Kottaras appears to be a failure offensively. After posting OBP's over .390 in back to back years at Double-A, he's yet to get his OBP over .316 at the Triple-A level.
On another note, that $10 million plus a year salary for Varitek appears to be speculative. The Boston Herald estimated the figure based on the salaries of Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Each of those catchers are making $13 million a year.
Sox to Bring Back Mirabelli
According to Extra Bases, the Red Sox are close with a deal to bring back Mirabelli as their backup catcher. I'm a little disappointed as I was hoping the Red Sox would attempt to upgrade the position, but there is a lack of quality catchers on the market. Mirabelli hit only .202/.278/.360 last year, but at least he can play defense.
There is also word that the Red Sox may try to sign Jason Varitek to an extension. According to Tony Massarotti the contract could be more than $10 million a year. I would be disappointed by this news as well as I was hoping the Red Sox would pursue Kenji Johjima as their full time catcher of the future.
There is also word that the Red Sox may try to sign Jason Varitek to an extension. According to Tony Massarotti the contract could be more than $10 million a year. I would be disappointed by this news as well as I was hoping the Red Sox would pursue Kenji Johjima as their full time catcher of the future.
Monday, January 7, 2008
2008 Bill James Hitter Projections
Jacoby Ellsbury - .320/.374/.436, 78 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 42 SB
Dustin Pedroia - .300/.369/.436, 77 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI
David Ortiz - .298/.407/.587, 109 R, 40 HR, 130 RBI
Manny Ramirez - .301/.405/.552, 99 R, 33 HR, 113 RBI
Mike Lowell - .282/.349/.459, 64 R, 17 HR, 81 RBI
J.D. Drew - .278/.393/.465, 90 R, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB
Kevin Youkilis - .290/.399/.454, 89 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI
Jason Varitek - .253/.349/.418, 60 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI
Julio Lugo - .266/.331/.380, 76 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 26 SB
The Handbook also projects a somewhat severe decline in Lowell's totals (-.071 OPS). I'd have to agree that Lowell is unlikely to put up a season like 2007, as it was a career year. Perhaps Fenway's friendly confines can help his offensive numbers from declining sharply as he ages. The Handbook also projects a minor sophomore slump for Pedroia (-.018 OPS).
On the flip side, the Handbook sees rebound seasons for Manny (+.076 OPS), Drew (+.062 OPS) and Lugo (+.068). I wouldn't be surprised to see Lugo bounce back even more in the 9 hole. Lowell hit .305/.353/.483 in that spot in the order last year. Those numbers are similar to the ones he put up with Tampa Bay in 2005 and 2006.
According to these projections, the average OBP of a Red Sox regular would be .375. That, however, doesn't take into account the fact that different players will get different amounts of at bats. The two members of the Red Sox likely to have the lowest OBP's (Varitek and Lugo) will get the least amount of at bats at the bottom of the order.
Who knows how accurate these specific totals will be. What's more important to me, is how likely it is that the Red Sox offense will improve next year if these overall numbers are at all accurate. Ellsbury will likely make a large difference at the top of the order, both in scoring runs and in providing depth to the lineup. Youkilis, who routinely has OBP's around .385 will be one of the batters furthest down in the order. The Red Sox would no doubt also be helped by a healthy David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.
Will the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored? Probably not. But you have to be happy when a championship team's offense is likely to improve.
David Ortiz - .298/.407/.587, 109 R, 40 HR, 130 RBI
Manny Ramirez - .301/.405/.552, 99 R, 33 HR, 113 RBI
Mike Lowell - .282/.349/.459, 64 R, 17 HR, 81 RBI
J.D. Drew - .278/.393/.465, 90 R, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB
Kevin Youkilis - .290/.399/.454, 89 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI
Jason Varitek - .253/.349/.418, 60 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI
Julio Lugo - .266/.331/.380, 76 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 26 SB
The Handbook loves Ellsbury. He's spectacular at hitting for average and he'll be hitting in a very batting average friendly park. In his worst minor league stint in 2006, Ellsbury still hit .295 and got on base at a rate of .375. In case you're wondering why his runs are so low, this assumes that Ellsbury plays 125 games next season.
The Handbook also projects a somewhat severe decline in Lowell's totals (-.071 OPS). I'd have to agree that Lowell is unlikely to put up a season like 2007, as it was a career year. Perhaps Fenway's friendly confines can help his offensive numbers from declining sharply as he ages. The Handbook also projects a minor sophomore slump for Pedroia (-.018 OPS).
On the flip side, the Handbook sees rebound seasons for Manny (+.076 OPS), Drew (+.062 OPS) and Lugo (+.068). I wouldn't be surprised to see Lugo bounce back even more in the 9 hole. Lowell hit .305/.353/.483 in that spot in the order last year. Those numbers are similar to the ones he put up with Tampa Bay in 2005 and 2006.
According to these projections, the average OBP of a Red Sox regular would be .375. That, however, doesn't take into account the fact that different players will get different amounts of at bats. The two members of the Red Sox likely to have the lowest OBP's (Varitek and Lugo) will get the least amount of at bats at the bottom of the order.
Who knows how accurate these specific totals will be. What's more important to me, is how likely it is that the Red Sox offense will improve next year if these overall numbers are at all accurate. Ellsbury will likely make a large difference at the top of the order, both in scoring runs and in providing depth to the lineup. Youkilis, who routinely has OBP's around .385 will be one of the batters furthest down in the order. The Red Sox would no doubt also be helped by a healthy David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.
Will the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored? Probably not. But you have to be happy when a championship team's offense is likely to improve.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Sox On the Basepaths
Kelly O'ConnorIn addition to providing projections for hitters and pitchers in 2008, the Bill James Handbook also rates the base running abilities of players. James provides every hitter in the majors a baserunning rating. These ratings are based on how factors such as bases taken, advances on outs, advancing extra bases on balls put in play, stolen bases, and outs made on the basepaths.
I'll provide two numbers. The first number is their baserunning rating. The second number is the percentage of the time that a player scored once they got on base (largely dependent on their spot in the order).
Jacoby Ellsbury: +13, 31%
Dustin Pedroia: +3, 34%
David Ortiz: +5, 30%
Manny Ramirez: -1, 29%
Mike Lowell: -11, 23%,
J.D. Drew: +6, 33%
Kevin Youkilis: +10, 28%
Jason Varitek: -23, 22%
Julio Lugo: +20, 29%
Alex Cora: 33%, +3
Coco Crisp: 35%, +37
Dustin Pedroia: +3, 34%
David Ortiz: +5, 30%
Manny Ramirez: -1, 29%
Mike Lowell: -11, 23%,
J.D. Drew: +6, 33%
Kevin Youkilis: +10, 28%
Jason Varitek: -23, 22%
Julio Lugo: +20, 29%
Alex Cora: 33%, +3
Coco Crisp: 35%, +37
Based on this information, you could make a case for Youkilis batting second in the order. He is a much better baserunner than Pedroia. Last year, Youkilis was rated the best baserunner on the team. For the second year in a row, Varitek was the team's worst baserunner. Overall in 2007, the Red Sox ranked as the 11th best baserunning team in the majors.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Why We Wait
There are now officially 40 days left until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. We are deeply entrenched in winter. I don't know about you guys, but where I live it's been around 20-25 degrees out lately. At the moment, it feels as if the baseball season may never return.
So to keep up morale in these discouraging times, I've advised a plan. I'm going to try out a series of posts called "Why We Wait". And for each one, I'll list a reason why while the Red Sox season may seem far away, it will all be worth it come late March.
Today's reason - beating up the Yankees. No regular season win is quite so sweet as one that comes at the hands of our hated rivals. The first Red Sox/Yankees series of the 2007 series was especially sweet.
In the first game of the series, the Red Sox scored five runs in the 8th inning, to beat the Yankees by a run. Mariano Rivera blew his second straight save opportunity and Hideki Okajima notched his first major league save. Then, in the second game, the Red Sox won the series behind Josh Beckett. It was the final game of the series, however, that was most sweet.
On April 23rd, the Red Sox swept the series in dramatic fashion. They tied a major league record by hitting back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs off of Yankees prospect Chase Wright. I can imagine Yankees fans thinking, "it's alright, no one was on" after the first home run. Then they probably thought, "alright, at least we're still up by a run" after the second home run. After the third, I'm sure they couldn't believe how they just lost their lead. And after the fourth I'm sure some of them had to turn off the TV for a little while.
Watch the video and relive the magic.
So to keep up morale in these discouraging times, I've advised a plan. I'm going to try out a series of posts called "Why We Wait". And for each one, I'll list a reason why while the Red Sox season may seem far away, it will all be worth it come late March.
Today's reason - beating up the Yankees. No regular season win is quite so sweet as one that comes at the hands of our hated rivals. The first Red Sox/Yankees series of the 2007 series was especially sweet.
In the first game of the series, the Red Sox scored five runs in the 8th inning, to beat the Yankees by a run. Mariano Rivera blew his second straight save opportunity and Hideki Okajima notched his first major league save. Then, in the second game, the Red Sox won the series behind Josh Beckett. It was the final game of the series, however, that was most sweet.
On April 23rd, the Red Sox swept the series in dramatic fashion. They tied a major league record by hitting back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs off of Yankees prospect Chase Wright. I can imagine Yankees fans thinking, "it's alright, no one was on" after the first home run. Then they probably thought, "alright, at least we're still up by a run" after the second home run. After the third, I'm sure they couldn't believe how they just lost their lead. And after the fourth I'm sure some of them had to turn off the TV for a little while.
Watch the video and relive the magic.
