Yankees Offense Due for Recession In 2008

Going into the 2007 season, there was speculation that the Yankees offense was primed to score north of 1,000 runs on the year. Yet, even with career years from Posada (+.103 OPS from 2006) and Rodriguez (+.153 OPS from 2006) the Yankees still fell short of the mark. So what happened?

Well, to put it most simply, aging. The Yankees went into 2007 with two members of their regular lineup younger than their age 33 season. And while you'd be hard pressed to see declining trends in the production of many of the aging Yankees vets going into last season, the age of 33 or 34 is typically when players begin to hit a wall.

And hitting a wall is exactly what much of the Yankees offense did in 2007. Bobby Abreu posted the worst OPS of his career. Both Matsui and Giambi posted the second worst OPS's of their career in 2007, and Damon posted the third worst OPS of his career in the same year. But those numbers don't tell the entire story.

Of all the members of the Yankees offense, Giambi's declining production is probably most concerning. Giambi figures to start the season as the Yankees starting first baseman. And even if he doesn't play the entire season in that role, he'll likely receive quite a bit of playing time there as the Yankees would prefer to DH Matsui and don't have a solid option as a backup first baseman.

Jason Giambi will be 37-years-old in 2008 and is riddled by health issues, likely related to his previous PED use. Last year, Giambi had an OPS of .790 which is well below average for a first baseman. He also struck out every 3.84 at bats, striking out more often than he got a hit. Most concerning about Giambi, however, is the way he breaks down under the wear of the season. Last year, he hit .200/.323/.429 in the second half of the season, even though he only played in 83 games, with the vast majority of his playing time coming as a DH.

Giambi's offensive decline is rather radical, but he's only one member of the offense. The decline in Abreu and Matsui's offense is also concerning. Both players are key members of the Yankees offense who both scored and drove in 100 runs last year. His OBP fell right off the table from a lofty .424 to .369. As for Matsui, his AVG and SLG fell for the second straight season in 2007.

But a continued aging process isn't the only reason the Yankees offense will take a hit in 2008. As previously stated, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both had monster career years last year. The likeliness of either one of those players putting up back to back career years are remote. They are especially remote for Posada, a catcher in his age 35 season.



And one factor which will especially hurt the Yankees offense is their decision to DH Hideki Matsui. Defensively, it may be a necessity as Matsui's defensive abilities have really fallen off. But offensively, it forces the Yankees to play Melky Cabrera in center. And Melky, more than any other Yankee, kills New York's offense.

Any outfielder who puts up an OPS of .718 should not have a starting job on a serious contender like the Yankees. Cabrera's offensive production as a regular player ranked near dead last among the league, even when compared to the weak hitting position of centerfield.

Mitchell Report Damning of Yankees

One important issue to remember, is that this report only sheds light on the use of performance enhancing drugs (PED's) in baseball over the last 20 years. Even so, the report is still rather damning towards the Yankees. Over 15 former and current Yankees were named, including Kevin Brown, Jose Canseco, Roger Clemens, Jason Giambi, Jason Grimsley, Glenallen Hill, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Josias Manzanillo, Hal Morris, Denny Neagle, Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, Mike Stanton, Ron Villone, Rondell White, and Todd Williams.

Many of those players played key roles in the Yankees dynasty years of last decade. Roger Clemens pitched well with the Yankees during the 1999 and 2000 playoffs, winning two World Series games and a game against the Red Sox in the 1999 ALCS. Clemens is the only Yankees player listed, who is accused of using steroids throughout his entire tenure with the Yankees.

David Justice was traded to the Yankees in June of 2000. He then hit .305/.391/.585 with 20 home runs and 60 RBI in 78 games with the Yankees, to help them win the division over the Red Sox by 2.5 games. Later, Justice would go on to be the 2000 ALCS MVP with the Yankees.

Pettitte was with the Yankees in all four of their dynasty World Series years. He spent most of that time as the Yankees Game 2 starter and was a solid force in the playoffs. Although the Mitchell Report doesn't trace his use of PED's back any further than 2002, he may have been using them earlier.

Chuck Knoblauch hit .375/.500/.563 in the 1998 World Series. He also hit .333/.429/.389 against the Red Sox in the 1999 ALCS, and .313/.353/.563 in that year's World Series. His use of PED's was traced back as early as 2001, although he may have been using them earlier.

The Yankees also got considerable help from PED's when they played the Red Sox in the 2003 ALCS. Both Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte received wins in the series with Jason Giambi hitting two home runs in the deciding Game 7, which went to extra innings. Mitchell claims that all three players had already taken PED's prior to that year.

Mitchell Report To Be Released Tomorrow

Sure, it won't fix baseball's history with performance enhancing drugs. The Mitchell Report isn't going to strike Bonds' tainted record from the books or change Jason Giambi's two home runs in game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. It's probably not even going to provide closure, but more likely controversy.

As a fan of the sport, however, I am eager to learn more about the "Steroids Era" of baseball, in which I grew up. I'm hoping none of my Red Sox heroes now, or childhood heroes of the past will be named in the report. At the same time, if a Red Sox player used performance enhancing drugs, I want to know.

And for all the players who kept their noses clean, perhaps it will provide some kind of justice. The players who are to be named in the report did cheat after all. No matter how much the virtues of this report are going to be debated over the next few weeks, the fact that these players cheated is black and white. It's not at all a grey issue.

When the report is released at 2 p.m. tomorrow, it's expected to release the names of about 50 players who used performance enhancing drugs. I expect many of them to be pitchers. With more and more importance on radar gun readings, there is just as much incentive to get your fastball up to 95 mph as there is to be able to hit home runs. And I expect many of baseball's recent "ageless" players to have been using steroids as a kind of fountain of youth.