Ellsbury Brings the Art of Leadoff Hitting Back to Boston

From 2003 through 2005, the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored (they scored the second most in 2002). Then in 2006, the Red Sox fell to 9th in that same category, and last year finished fourth in the league. Many aspects of the Red Sox offense have changed in between 2005 and now.

There have been smaller contributing factors such as the decline of Varitek's offense and there have been some larger factors, such as Manny Ramirez's poor health the past two years. But in my opinion, the largest difference between the Red Sox offense of 2005 and the Red Sox offense the past two years has been their lack of a true leadoff hitter.

The past two years, the Red Sox have had a tough choice to make. They could go with someone like Coco Crisp, who has plenty of speed, but only gets on base at a rate of around .325. Or they could go with someone like Youkilis, who gets on base at a rate of around .385 but has virtually no speed. Finally, in 2007, the Red Sox will likely have a player with both.

Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Red Sox the offensive catalyst that they've lacked since Johnny Damon. Ellsbury can definitely get on base. He did so at a rate of .394 during the regular season last year with the Red Sox. Over his minor league career he got on base at a rate of .389.

And speed? Does he ever have speed. In just his third major league game against the Texas Rangers, Ellsbury stole second and then later scored from second on a passed ball. He went a perfect 11-0 on the base paths last year with the Red Sox. Ellsbury's Jose Reyes-like speed is something he's demonstrated throughout his baseball career.

In high school, Ellsbury didn't have to slide once while stealing a base. In college, Ellsbury was 60-16 on the base paths. Over his minor league career, he was 105-27 in stolen base attempts, with 12 of those caught stealings coming at the Single-A level. Ellsbury was named the Red Sox minor league base runner of the year in 2006. That's not the only award Ellsbury won in 2006.

That same year, Ellsbury was also named the Red Sox defensive player of the year. And while great defensive play won't help the Red Sox offense, it will help the Red Sox win games. Ellsbury's a complete player. His power isn't anything special, but it's not bad for his age. And with his speed and base running abilities, he really doesn't need any power to score runs. His arm in center will significantly better than what the Red Sox have had at that position in almost a decade.

Ellsbury is a catalyst not only because of his incredible skills, but also because of when he uses those skills best. He has a flair for the dramatic, and propensity for the big hit. Ellsbury had 10 home runs over his minor league career. But in only 33 games with the Red Sox, he hit three, two of them providing the difference in the game. Ellsbury also managed to hit .455/.500/.545 with runners in scoring position, and .471/.550/.647 with runners in scoring position and two out.

And in October, when it mattered most? Ellsbury lead the Red Sox in hits, doubles, stolen bases, average, and on base percentage. He was second to only Mike Lowell in both runs scored and slugging percentage. Ellsbury was so good, that the Red Sox didn't lose a single playoff game in which he had an at bat.

What else could you ask for?

Yankees Offense Due for Recession In 2008

Going into the 2007 season, there was speculation that the Yankees offense was primed to score north of 1,000 runs on the year. Yet, even with career years from Posada (+.103 OPS from 2006) and Rodriguez (+.153 OPS from 2006) the Yankees still fell short of the mark. So what happened?

Well, to put it most simply, aging. The Yankees went into 2007 with two members of their regular lineup younger than their age 33 season. And while you'd be hard pressed to see declining trends in the production of many of the aging Yankees vets going into last season, the age of 33 or 34 is typically when players begin to hit a wall.

And hitting a wall is exactly what much of the Yankees offense did in 2007. Bobby Abreu posted the worst OPS of his career. Both Matsui and Giambi posted the second worst OPS's of their career in 2007, and Damon posted the third worst OPS of his career in the same year. But those numbers don't tell the entire story.

Of all the members of the Yankees offense, Giambi's declining production is probably most concerning. Giambi figures to start the season as the Yankees starting first baseman. And even if he doesn't play the entire season in that role, he'll likely receive quite a bit of playing time there as the Yankees would prefer to DH Matsui and don't have a solid option as a backup first baseman.

Jason Giambi will be 37-years-old in 2008 and is riddled by health issues, likely related to his previous PED use. Last year, Giambi had an OPS of .790 which is well below average for a first baseman. He also struck out every 3.84 at bats, striking out more often than he got a hit. Most concerning about Giambi, however, is the way he breaks down under the wear of the season. Last year, he hit .200/.323/.429 in the second half of the season, even though he only played in 83 games, with the vast majority of his playing time coming as a DH.

Giambi's offensive decline is rather radical, but he's only one member of the offense. The decline in Abreu and Matsui's offense is also concerning. Both players are key members of the Yankees offense who both scored and drove in 100 runs last year. His OBP fell right off the table from a lofty .424 to .369. As for Matsui, his AVG and SLG fell for the second straight season in 2007.

But a continued aging process isn't the only reason the Yankees offense will take a hit in 2008. As previously stated, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both had monster career years last year. The likeliness of either one of those players putting up back to back career years are remote. They are especially remote for Posada, a catcher in his age 35 season.



And one factor which will especially hurt the Yankees offense is their decision to DH Hideki Matsui. Defensively, it may be a necessity as Matsui's defensive abilities have really fallen off. But offensively, it forces the Yankees to play Melky Cabrera in center. And Melky, more than any other Yankee, kills New York's offense.

Any outfielder who puts up an OPS of .718 should not have a starting job on a serious contender like the Yankees. Cabrera's offensive production as a regular player ranked near dead last among the league, even when compared to the weak hitting position of centerfield.