Will the Rookie of the Year See A Sophomore Slump?

Funny that people are expecting a sophomore slump for Pedroia. No one would have guessed it back in April when he batted below the Mendoza line and had an OPS of .544. But at the time, his BABIP suggested a huge turnaround, and it was correct. Pedroia had incredibly bad luck in April, getting only one hit for every five balls that he put into play (about 50% below normal).

Given how accurate the use of BABIP was then, I'll use it again to see what can be expected of Pedroia in 2008. Overall in 2007, Dusty had a BABIP of .340. This was significantly higher than his Expected BABIP of .305, so it's probably fair to expect a regression in Pedroia's 2007 batting average of .317. I expect that he'll probably hit more like .300 next year.

At the same time, however, there may be a reason to expect his OBP to increase. Pedroia either drew a walk or struck out freakishly infrequently in 2007. He only drew a walk in 8.2 percent of his bats, which is low for him. The pitches he saw per plate appearance was the lowest among all Red Sox with at least 400 at bats. I'm sure Dave Magadan will work with him on that, and typically the more pitches a hitter sees per at bat, the more walks and strikeouts they get.

So overall, I'd expect a decrease in average and an increase in OPS. That's pretty typical of rookies. Pitchers generally learn to pitch to the weak spots of them and the actual rookies better learn how to get on base and drive major league pitches. There aren't any real red flags in Pedroia's numbers. He frequently makes contact and he doesn't strike out much. While he was lucky, he wasn't freakishly lucky like B.J. Upton was last year.

2008 Bill James Hitter Projections

Jacoby Ellsbury - .320/.374/.436, 78 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 42 SB

Dustin Pedroia - .300/.369/.436, 77 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI
David Ortiz - .298/.407/.587, 109 R, 40 HR, 130 RBI
Manny Ramirez - .301/.405/.552, 99 R, 33 HR, 113 RBI
Mike Lowell - .282/.349/.459, 64 R, 17 HR, 81 RBI
J.D. Drew - .278/.393/.465, 90 R, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB
Kevin Youkilis - .290/.399/.454, 89 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI
Jason Varitek - .253/.349/.418, 60 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI
Julio Lugo - .266/.331/.380, 76 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 26 SB

The Handbook loves Ellsbury. He's spectacular at hitting for average and he'll be hitting in a very batting average friendly park. In his worst minor league stint in 2006, Ellsbury still hit .295 and got on base at a rate of .375. In case you're wondering why his runs are so low, this assumes that Ellsbury plays 125 games next season.

The Handbook also projects a somewhat severe decline in Lowell's totals (-.071 OPS). I'd have to agree that Lowell is unlikely to put up a season like 2007, as it was a career year. Perhaps Fenway's friendly confines can help his offensive numbers from declining sharply as he ages. The Handbook also projects a minor sophomore slump for Pedroia (-.018 OPS).

On the flip side, the Handbook sees rebound seasons for Manny (+.076 OPS), Drew (+.062 OPS) and Lugo (+.068). I wouldn't be surprised to see Lugo bounce back even more in the 9 hole. Lowell hit .305/.353/.483 in that spot in the order last year. Those numbers are similar to the ones he put up with Tampa Bay in 2005 and 2006.

According to these projections, the average OBP of a Red Sox regular would be .375. That, however, doesn't take into account the fact that different players will get different amounts of at bats. The two members of the Red Sox likely to have the lowest OBP's (Varitek and Lugo) will get the least amount of at bats at the bottom of the order.

Who knows how accurate these specific totals will be. What's more important to me, is how likely it is that the Red Sox offense will improve next year if these overall numbers are at all accurate. Ellsbury will likely make a large difference at the top of the order, both in scoring runs and in providing depth to the lineup. Youkilis, who routinely has OBP's around .385 will be one of the batters furthest down in the order. The Red Sox would no doubt also be helped by a healthy David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.

Will the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored? Probably not. But you have to be happy when a championship team's offense is likely to improve.

The Fenway Park Effect - Introduction

Ever wonder how Dustin Pedroia managed to hit .317 as a rookie? Perhaps you're left scratching your head over how Drew's home run total was cut in half in 2007? Maybe you want to know if Fenway Park really does cause errors, as Renteria claimed in 2005? Well thanks to the Bill James Handbook, we have some answers.

Now park effect doesn't explain or account for everything. Obviously, Pedroia has to be able to hit to get a .317 batting average, regardless of the park he plays in. Park effects mostly help us to understand some trends in pitching and hitting performance. It's especially useful when trying to understand how players' performances may be affected by switching teams. At the same time, it works to create more answers. Such as how is it that the Red Sox lead the AL in ERA, while also pitching in the league's most hitting friendly park?

First of all, I'll talk about Fenway Park's effect on producing runs. A park rating of 100 is neutral, regardless of the category. In the category of producing runs, Fenway Park received a rating of 118 in 2007. That rating lead the majors, but what exactly does it mean? A rating of 118 means that it was 18% easier to score a run in Fenway Park, than it was to score a run in a neutral run scoring park.

So what does such a rating tell us? The first conclusion I'd come to is that the Red Sox offense is probably a bit overrated. If it is 18% easier to score a run in Fenway Park, than it is a neutral run scoring park, Red Sox offensive numbers are probably inflated. This could help to explain how the Red Sox have ranked among baseball's top five offenses in five out of the last six years.

But that's only half the story. If it's so much easier to score runs in Fenway Park, then what's that mean for the Red Sox pitchers? No doubt, if it's easier to score runs in Fenway Park, it's also much harder to prevent runs. But how much more difficult is it for Red Sox pitchers to prevent runs?

In a perfect world, the average American League park would be neutral. And since the Red Sox play half their games at Fenway Park, it would be 9% harder for Red Sox pitchers to prevent runs, assuming they make half their starts at home and half on the road. And in this case, Beckett's already sterling 2007 ERA of 3.27 would look more like 2.97 had Fenway Park been a hitter neutral park.

But we don't live in a perfect world. In reality, Beckett pitched almost 20 more innings at home than he did on the road last year. And the average American League park wasn't neutral. The average American League park last year was somewhere between Comerica Park and Kauffman Stadium, and was around 5% easier to score a run in than a neutral park.

So I'll account for the fact that Beckett pitched 54.8% of his innings at home, and the fact that the average AL park had a run scoring rating of 105 or +5%. Now, if Beckett pitched in a hitter neutral park, his ERA would have looked more like 3.11. So was he robbed of a Cy Young Award?

Not so fast, the second most run scoring friendly park in the American League was Jacob's Field, where C.C. Sabathia pitched his innings when he was at home. If you adjust both of their home innings to the neutral American League park, their numbers would look more similar, but only slightly.

And my calculations above ignored the fact that Beckett pitched many of his starts in NL Parks, where the average run scoring factor wasn't 105. And the NL parks which Beckett pitched in were different than the NL parks that Sabathia pitched in. So when it comes down to it, park effect is so complicated that it's wise to just ignore their effects on competitions like the Cy Young Award.

Besides, Rays fans would have more a case for Delmon Young being robbed of a Rookie of the Year Award. Fenway Park's effect on right-handed batting average was almost as great as its effect on run scoring. And unlike the Cy Young Award where both competitors played in rather similar parks, Delmon Young's Tropicana Field actually was one of the least friendly parks for right-handed batting average. It was also a below neutral park for run scoring.

More than ERA, park factors affect the total runs that teams score. This is because ERA is a ratio stat, and the total effects of it are divided by 9. The same can be said about other ratio stats like H/9, BB/9 and K/9. Raw totals like Runs Scored are more skewed by park effect. If the Red Sox played in a neutral run scoring park in 2007, their runs scored total would look more like 802. This means that their runs scored total might not have ranked among the top five in the American League.

Again, this is difficult to calculate because eight out of the top ten run scoring teams in the American League last year played in parks which were friendly to scoring runs. The only two teams in the top 10 who were hurt by their park factor were the Rays and the Blue Jays.

The effect of Fenway Park on offensive production is so complicated, that I've broken it up into multiple parts. This article is only the beginning. Later, I will look at how Fenway Park affects average, home run totals, and errors. Many of these answers are sure to surprise you.

I know some of this information can be complicated, and not all of you have the Bill James Handbook handy as you read this. So if you have any questions, or need anything clarified, feel free to ask.

Sox On the Basepaths

Kelly O'Connor

In addition to providing projections for hitters and pitchers in 2008, the Bill James Handbook also rates the base running abilities of players. James provides every hitter in the majors a baserunning rating. These ratings are based on how factors such as bases taken, advances on outs, advancing extra bases on balls put in play, stolen bases, and outs made on the basepaths.

I'll provide two numbers. The first number is their baserunning rating. The second number is the percentage of the time that a player scored once they got on base (largely dependent on their spot in the order).

Jacoby Ellsbury: +13, 31%
Dustin Pedroia: +3, 34%
David Ortiz: +5, 30%
Manny Ramirez: -1, 29%
Mike Lowell: -11, 23%,
J.D. Drew: +6, 33%
Kevin Youkilis: +10, 28%
Jason Varitek: -23, 22%
Julio Lugo: +20, 29%

Alex Cora: 33%, +3
Coco Crisp: 35%, +37

Based on this information, you could make a case for Youkilis batting second in the order. He is a much better baserunner than Pedroia. Last year, Youkilis was rated the best baserunner on the team. For the second year in a row, Varitek was the team's worst baserunner. Overall in 2007, the Red Sox ranked as the 11th best baserunning team in the majors.

Will Man-Ram Return To Greatness In '08?

What do the years 1998 and 2007 have in common? Those are the last two years in which Manny Ramirez didn't lead American League outfielders in OPS. So what can we expect from the AL's best offensive outfielder in 2008? Well, that's the "beauty" of Manny; no one really knows.

Ramirez was hurt by two things last year. Firstly, he got off to an especially slow start at the plate. In the first half of the season Manny hit just .284/.385/.465. But this is nothing new. In 2005, Manny's best offensive season with the Red Sox, he hit only .275/.361/.549 in the first half.

Ramirez isn't always in the best shape when he comes into Spring Training. Often times, he'll show up late. And when he does show up, he doesn't always look ready to play. Will things be different in 2008? Who knows.

I will say one thing though, and I mean this half jokingly, half serious. If Manny shows up to Spring Training in shape and on time this year, for the first time in many years, he could be primed for quite the year.

There are signs that Ramirez is finally realizing he isn't 30 any more. According to Peter Gammons, Manny's become a "manicle workout warrior". Manicle is Gammons' word, not mine. Gammons provides a brief first hand account of Manny's workouts, describing them as "extremely difficult."

Then, there is the second issue which hampered Manny's performance in 2007. For the second year in a row, Ramirez missed significant time due to an injury. Ramirez has typically been rather consistent with his health, playing 150+ games a season. The last two years, however, his playing time has been more like 130 games a year. Fortunately, Manny's 2006 and 2007 injuries are likely unrelated.

In 2006, Manny Ramirez suffered from patellar tendinitis in his right knee. In 2007, he suffered from a strained oblique in his right leg. Each injury caused him to miss about a month of playing time. I'm no doctor, but in my opinion, these injuries are likely related to the age of Ramirez. Patellar tendinitis specifically isn't an injury usually seen in baseball players. It is more often seen in basketball and soccer players, as it is a sign of excessive wear on the knee joint.

Manny Ramirez is going to be 36-years-old in 2008. I think he's clearly at risk for injury, but at this point in his career I wouldn't label him an injury liability. Even when he has been hurt, he's played 130+ games. Getting into better physical shape could lower his risk for injury. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see him need a little time off in the second half of 2008.

If Ramirez plays a full season in 2008, I see no reason why he couldn't hit 40 home runs and drive in 120. He finally appears to be happy in Boston, and he'll be playing for a $20 million team option in 2009. Ramirez will also have some serious OBP guys in front of him in Ellsbury (.394), Pedroia (.380) and Ortiz (.445). And after Lowell's 2007 season, pitchers and managers may be more wary of pitching around Ramirez.

But even if he misses some time to injury, he could still lead American League outfielders in OPS as he did in 2006. Oh yeah, and seal his Hall of Fame candidacy with his 500th home run. Unless, of course, he pulls a Roger Clemens.

The Michaels Report

Preamble

In the wake of the Mitchell Report, many New York fans and writers have been left with a bitter taste in their mouth. The report named a total of 17 current and former Yankees who used PEDs. And even though former Red Sox fan favorites like Roger Clemens and Mo Vaugn were named, in addition to members of the 2007 championship team like Brendan Donnelly and Eric Gagne, it still wasn't enough.

Mitchell made the critical mistake of not naming enough Red Sox players. Some New York fans have even claimed that the Mitchell Report should be dubbed "the Red Sox Report". New York Sports writer Bill Madden made Mitchell's bias obvious when he pointed out that "not one prominent recent Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewer or Texas Ranger wound up in that report?"

Now I thought George W. Bush left his job with the Rangers. I remember something about him becoming president, and a Republican at that. But you know what, good of George Mitchell, a Democrat, to be bipartisan and keep Bush's 1994 interests in mind. If Mitchell wasn't so biased in other areas, he'd be a great example for our young politicians.

So for all of you who were unsatisfied with the Mitchell Report, I've undergone my own investigation. Now I know I'm not a respected former politician, and I never helped broker peace in Northern Ireland. In fact, most people have probably never heard of me.

I'll leave the accuracy of the report for you to ponder, although I doubt it will be debated on ESPN. I will do the one thing which will make this report legitimate in the eyes of millions of New York fans; I will name Red Sox.

I will not keep you waiting any longer. Without further ado, I present to you The Michaels Report.

Information Obtained Regarding Players' Possession or Use of Steroids and Human Growth Hormone

Jonathan Papelbon: Papelbon was heartbroken when in 2005, the Red Sox made him pitch at the Triple-A level before being called up. He couldn't understand why he wasn't called up after he posted a 2.48 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP at the Double-A level. He decided it wasn't his numbers, but rather his simply wasn't making enough of an impression.

And so, in 2005, Papelbon turned to fellow Baton Rouge native, and hGH user Andy Pettitte for help. Pettitte testified as the the secondary uses of hGH. He himself didn't use them to cheat, but rather to help out his team. Like Pettitte, Papelbon tried out hGH, but after finding that his illegal drug use didn't make him seem like "more of a team player", he turned to steroids.

Steroids Papelbon found an immediate use for. While he didn't need them to bulk up, they gave him a mental edge. And with the help of roid rage, he was able to make his famous "Papelstare". Red Sox scouts immediately noticed Papelbon's stare of pure rage and promoted him to the major leagues.

David Ortiz: Ortiz was released by the Minnesota Twins after his age 26 season, in which he slugged only .500. Ortiz showed promise in the minor leagues, but the Twins didn't feel they could afford him. So in order to make sure he caught on somewhere else, Ortiz invested his fortune of an arbitration contract into thousands of dollars worth of hGH and steroids.



We know Ortiz has used PEDs for a variety of reasons. First of all, he puts up good power numbers and plays for the Red Sox. Second of all, not only does he get walk-off hits, but he does so against Mariano Rivera. Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all time. In fact, he's so good that the only people capable of getting walk-off hits against him are Bill Mueller and cheaters.

Issues arose when certain "shrinking" side effects of steroids began to take their toll on the body and ego of Ortiz. In order to battle the damaging mental affects, Ortiz undertook the nickname "Big Papi" The nickname helps compensate for parts of Ortiz which are no longer that big.

Ortiz has previously said the only things he puts in his body to be big are "rice and beans". In the Dominican Republic those are known slang terms for hGH and steroids.

Hideki Okajima: Okajima experienced severe stress on his neck in Spring Training with the Red Sox in 2007. Trainers were worried that if Okajima continued his violent head jerks, his head was in danger of falling right off. So in order prevent that from happening, he began using hGH to strengthen his neck muscles. While hGH use without a prescription is illegal, Okajima swears that his illegal drug use is only for his own safety.

In April Okajima actually admitted to his steroids use, saying he was inspired by Bonds' use in the book Game of Shadows. But his interpreter tried to protect Okajima, mistranslating the statement to say "I'm willing to be a hero in the dark". MLB.com ran a story on the quote entitled "Okajima emerging out of the shadows".

Dustin Pedroia: Not only is he a good player on the Red Sox, but he has a receding hairline as well, a clear indication of steroids use. Besides, no one who is 5'8'' could be good unless they cheated.

Conclusions

It has become clear that the Red Sox have a significant and prolonged culture of PED use. The Mitchell Report demonstrated that various former Red Sox players used PEDs. When Paxton Crawford dropped a bag on the floor of the Red Sox clubhouse, and needles came out, members of the Red Sox laughed.

This is because the Red Sox are cheaters. It wasn't enough to know that Red Sox have used PEDs, peopled needed to know names of current Red Sox players. It was unfair that more Yankees than Red Sox players were named.

And in conclusion, use of PEDs by Red Sox players helps to explain why they've been better than the Yankees lately. No wonder they've won two World Series in the last four years. An asterisk should be placed next to them, and the Red Sox AL East championship last year. Just like the "real" home run king is Hank Aaron, the real AL East Champions are the New York Yankees.