"Diminishing" Red Sox and Yankees Packages for Santana

There has been such a lack of Santana news lately, that I was wondering if teams forgot he available. But Charley Walters had an update today which makes it sound more like teams have simply lost interest. The most important thing he said is that the Yankees are no longer considering parting with Phil Hughes. If Walters is accurate in this, then the Yankees have virtually eliminated any chance they had of acquiring Santana.

Walters specifically said that, "offers by the New York Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Boston Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Walters doesn't mention how the Red Sox offers for Santana have diminished, but I wouldn't be surprised if they've taken Ellsbury off the table. I'm not sure how much that affects their chances of acquiring Santana, however, as it appeared that the Twins preferred the Red Sox package which included Jon Lester.

If this is all true, then I think the Mets chances of acquiring Santana have increased. But without the Yankees involved anymore, the Red Sox chances of acquiring Santana could be as good as ever. I've said it before, and it seems to be even more and more likely now - Twins fans will probably be disappointed with the return on Santana.

Twins GM Bill Smith can only yank these teams around for so many months. If he's lost out on a chance to acquire a Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury or Fernando Martinez, it would be a very rough start to his tenure as Twins GM.

The Polls Are Closed: What's Your Opinion On Santana?

The polls are now closed and well over 100 people have spoken. The second most popular selection in the poll was that neither Red Sox package of prospects was worth giving up for Santana. But 26 more voters (and 50% of the voters overall) said that they'd give up the Lester, Lowrie package for Santana. Only 9% of voters, however, were willing to give up Ellsbury and Lowrie in a package for Santana.

And I have to say that I actually agree with the results. While I would much prefer that the Red Sox keep Ellsbury, I would be happy with dealing Lester, Lowrie, Crisp and Masterson for Santana. I'm fully aware that Santana will come with a steep price tag, and I expect Lowrie to be a pretty good middle infielder for years to come. And Lester could potentially be a front of the rotation starter who costs more than $25 milllion a year less than Santana. But the addition of Santana to a Red Sox rotation consisting of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling and Buchholz, is just too exciting to pass up. I don't think it's realistic to expect even the best of pitching prospects to be as good as Santana. A pitcher of Santana's caliber only comes around once an era, not once every few years.

If the Red Sox were to acquire Santana, I wouldn't expect him to put up 2004 numbers. He's not going to put up a WHIP of 0.92 facing AL East hitters in Fenway Park. And I doubt that Santana will ever strike out 265 batters in a season again. But I would expect Santana to be one of the best three pitchers in the American League over the next five years. And that would give the Red Sox an absolutely lethal pitching rotation.

Of course, Santana would take up quite a bit of payroll. And there is a rather high risk in taking on a six or seven year contract with any pitcher. Just Thursday, Buster Olney said that he heard from a talent evaluator who suspects that Santana might have a health issue. But that is of course speculation at this point. Most talent evaluators probably have a different explanation for Santana's sub-par season last year.

How Does the Mets Package Stack Up?

Carlos Gomez (Jim McIsaac/Agence France-Presse)

The latest on Santana, courtesy of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, is that Twins officials have privately said that they expect Santana to be dealt by Spring Training. The article also says that while the Red Sox and Yankees are still involved, the Twins have showed the most interest in the Mets offer lately.

That Mets offer includes Carolos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The only problem is, most baseball fans I'm sure have little to no idea what kind of prospects those players are. And it doesn't help that respected prospect rankings by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus aren't due for another month. But thankfully, there's John Sickels of minorleagueball.com.

Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book. He looks at the top 20 prospects in every organization, and assigns them letter grades based on their value. When trying to compare trade packages made up mostly of prospects, these simplified prospect ratings can be very useful.

The Mets package for Santana is rumored to consist of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are attempting to get the Mets to add Fernando Martinez to the deal, but they aren't the one with leverage in the situation. The Twins have to unload Santana, they don't have the monetary resources to retain him.

So what kind of prospects are the Mets offering? Their package includes three pitchers in Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. Guerra received a rating of B+, making him the highest rated player in the package. But he's yet to pitch above the Single-A level. Molvey and Humber received grades of B and B- respectively. And both of them are likely to begin the season in Triple-A.

Carolos Gomez is the only position player in the deal. Sickels rated him a B prospect. He's kind of a toolsy outfielder with average plate discipline and little power.

So what's the positive of the Mets package? It offers more pitchers than any other package. All four players offered in the deal will also be cost controlled for many years to come. By accepting the Mets offer, the Twins would also be dealing Santana to a team outside of the American League.

On the other hand, the players in the package have virtually no major league experience. And none of the players that the Mets are offering have true star potential. There's no great position player or pitching prospect.

This makes it almost the opposite of the Red Sox package. The Red Sox are offering the package with the most major league experience when compared to all other packages available for Santana. And the Red Sox are also offering a package which has the most high quality talent out of any package available.

The Red Sox package of Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson contains two grade A- position players and a grade B pitcher. Or if the Twins want more major league experience and a wider range of players, they could go for the Red Sox package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. That package could potentially fill two rotation spots, the Twins need for a center fielder, and their need for a middle infielder who can actually hit.

Based on the talent available in the deals, I find it hard to believe that the Twins would prefer the Mets package based on the return alone. But the Twins would likely prefer to deal Santana to the National League. And Santana would prefer to go to the National League as well, where he'd likely dominate weaker hitting competition.

With Winter Winding Down, Twins Aren't Any Closer To A Deal

I'm sorry, but if you're not entertained by the Santana Saga, then you haven't been paying attention. I feel like the Twins should be nominated for a Soapy Award at this point; although they'd have some stiff competition in Hank Streinbrenner. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, or are perhaps a little confused, here's a recap of the happenings the past few days.

On Friday, the Yankees reportedly weren't talking to the Twins about Santana. Then just yesterday, the Yankees repordetly talked to the Twins, but just to let them know that they took their offer off the table. Then less than eight hours later, Hank Streinbrenner weighed in to let everyone know that while "there was no official offer on the table at this time", he hasn't taken his offer off the table.

In case that left you confused as well, Hank did in fact clarfiy the statement. According to Howlin' Hank, he couldn't have taken an offer off the table because "there wasn't an official offer anyway." Sometimes I wonder if Hank just says whatever he thinks will get him the most attention.

So what's developed since yesterday? Well, more of nothing mostly. According to the Star-Ledger Staff, neither the Mets or Yankees appear willing to make a deal with the Twins unless they lower their demands. The Red Sox have been at that same stage in negotiations for some time. So what's this mean?

All three teams appear to have made their final offers. The Red Sox are offering a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and also a package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, but not a package containing both Lester and Ellsbury. The Yankees would offer a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez, but not a package including both Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And the Mets are offering a package of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra but not a package including Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

Either team could quickly make a deal, by giving up the extra guy. But I don't see why any team would. The Red Sox likely believe that they have the best offer. Hank Streinbrenner has said that the thinks his team has the best offer. And the Mets probably don't feel a need to add a fifth prospect to their deal given the fact that they're the only National League team in the running, and they're Santana's desired landing point. Furthmore, they're probably the only team of the trhee with a realistic chance of being able to acquire Erik Bedard.

I seriously doubt that the Twins will go into the season without having dealt Santana. Whether he's bluffing or not, Santana has said that he won't accept a midseason trade. So if the Twins don't deal him before the season begins, the Twins run the risk of getting nothing but two sandwhich picks in the draft when Santana walks.

The Boston Herald, with the help of Baseball America, gave a run down on the three packages which the Twins could currently select from. The article classifies the Mets package as risky, given the fact that most of the players are years removed from being major league ready. The article also classifies the Yankees package as lightweight, given the fact that it includes one blue chip player and two throw-in caliber players.

And I think most fans outside of New York would agree with both statements. If the Twins want the safest return for Satnana, it would likely be the Red Sox package. The Red Sox package includes the most major league ready talent, and fills the most immediate needs for the Twins. The Yankees package offers the Twins a possible ace, but little else. And the Mets package offers the Twins the most overall talent, although little to none of it is major league ready.

For any Yankees fans worried about losing Phil Hughes, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Accepting a package of Hughes, Melky and Marquez probably wouldn't be in the best interests of the Twins. And there's absolutely no chance that the Yankees would give up both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a package for Santana. Although, if it's the Red Sox that acquire Santana, Yankees fans may be wishing otherwise for the next six or seven years.

Miscellanious Trade News

Somewhere online I found this interpretation of Johan Santana pitching to Pablo Ozuna. Sad part is, it's probably more interesting than the Santana Saga has been for weeks. I miss Legos...

Not too much new going on with the Red Sox. Santana's agent has said that his client isn't demanding a deal by the time pitchers and catchers report. Great, so the Santana Saga could drag on for another month and then some. I have a feeling that the Twins are interested in the Mets just because their offer is the most recent.

Ken Rosenthal has a source saying that the Yankees are no longer talking to the Twins. Funny, I feel like I've heard this story at least three times. Bad news for both the Red Sox and paranoid Yankees fans everywhere. Without the Yankees involved in Santana, I'm not sure what else the Red Sox could do this offseason to sabotage them. I hope they have enough money to sign a backup outfielder after they paid so much for George Mitchell. Will that money count when major league baseball tabulates the luxury tax?

Mike Cameron was recently connected to the Yankees, but he's recently agreed to a deal with the Brewers. I'm kind of glad, Cameron would have been an upgrade over Melky Cabrera on both sides of the ball. In some more good news for the Red Sox, the Orioles appear determined to trade away Brian Roberts and Erik, sorry, Érik Bédard.

The Orioles are going to be REALLY bad next year. They finished just three games better than the worst record in the majors last year. They've already dealt away their cleanup hitter, and they're in talks involving their leadoff hitter and staff ace. They could go into next season with a middle infield consisting of Luis Hernandez (.290/.300/.362) and Freddie Bynum (.259/.300/.452) and their Opening Day starter could be Daniel Cabrera. Although, I think I'd go with Guthrie.

The Orioles could help to inflate AL East records next year. According to Pythagereon Record, the Red Sox should have won over 100 games last year. Without Julian Tavarez being a mainstay in the rotation, they could be the first American League team to top the 100 win mark since 2004.

Quote of the Day

In case you haven't noticed, I've been trying to avoid the Santana Saga lately. But I couldn't help myself when I saw this quote.

"According to the Star Tribune, the Mets are confident they'll get Johan Santana signed if they can agree with the Twins on the players involved in a deal."

If they could just agree on the players involved, I'm pretty sure the Red Sox or Yankees could sign a Santana deal as well. The Mets do look like the current frontrunners though.

Mets Positioning For A Santana Deal?

A few days ago, I mentioned that Peter Gammons thought the Mets were stockpiling talent in preparation for a Johan Santana deal. This, he thought, may explain why the Twins have been waiting to make a deal. A couple of days ago, the Mets dealt for fourth outfielder Angel Pagan. And Pagan could theoretically replace Carlos Gomez on the Mets roster next year, should Gomez be dealt in a Santana deal.

That same day, it was reported that the Mets have interest in Athletics pitcher Joe Blanton. Could they be trying to pressure the Twins into a deal? If the Mets were to acquire Blanton, it would take them out of the Santana sweepstakes, leaving only two teams. And the true interest levels of the Red Sox and Yankees are somewhat questionable. Of all three times, I think it's fair to say that the Mets need Santana the most.

In addition to pressure from the Mets, Hank Steinbrenner appears to be applying pressure to the Twins to make a deal. On Thursday when talking about Johan Santana, Steinbrenner said, "in the next two weeks, we're going to have to get everything done." For once, I wish Hank had the slightest bit of credibility when it came to ultimatums. Maybe he actually could help to get the ball rolling. Unfortunately, Hank's believability is more like that of a car salesman than a team owner.

Gammons Against Santana Deal

In his chat, Peter Gammons provided his opinion on a possible Red Sox trade for Johan Santana. In the words of Gammons:

"The more I’ve thought about the Santana deal, the more I’m convinced it’s not a great idea. Whether it’s the Ellsbury deal or the Lester deal, the Sox would still be giving up three young players and I don’t discount the importance that Lowrie will play in the next couple of years."

I definitely agree that a deal for Santana including Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie would not be in the best interests of the team. I love Johan Santana but dealing the Red Sox two best position prospects in order to acquire him would clearly hurt the team's future. It makes me nervous that this deal may still be on the table.

I think the Red Sox could absorb the loss of Lester a little more easily, given the team's superb pitching staff. But either way, the Red Sox will be dealing Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie's major league production is anywhere near his .850+ Minor League OPS's, Lowrie would become one of the best shortstops in baseball.

New Poll

In light of Gammons' comments on the Santana deal, I thought I'd make a new poll. I want to know your opinions on a possible Johan Santana deal. If you were Epstein would you want to...

1. Deal Ellsbury and Lowrie now!
2. Try to do a Lester and Lowrie trade.
3. Keep them because neither package is worth it.
4. Would you be undecided as you to what do.

The poll's to the right of the page if you want to participate.

Conflicting News On Santana

There was also conflicting news regarding the Mets. Peter Gammons says he thinks the Mets are attempting to stockpile talent with which to trade for Santana. John Heyman thinks the Mets are offering Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, and Kevin Mulvey for Johan Santana. Seems strange that the Twins haven't taken the deal then.

On the other hand, Mike Francesca is saying that the Twins are demanding Jose Reyes, which will never happen. And to wrap things up, Keith Law is saying that the Mets would never trade Fernando Martinez for Santana, given that there's only one year left on his current contract.

Given the multitude of Mets news, and their conflicting nature, it's likely that some of this is misinformation. The Twins might be trying to make it look like a deal is eminent, in order to get the Red Sox or Yankees to increase their offers. However, there have already been two false reports of eminent deals, one to the Yankees, then one to the Red Sox. And to this point, no one's increased their offers.

Hank Steinbrenner also weighed in on Santana. He implied that Yankees offer of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez could be back on the table. Although, there are no indications that the Yankees are any more interested in a deal. According to Hank the Yankees have "already made the best offer". He's likely referring to the Yankees offer of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez which is in reality is somewhat weak.

Hypothetical - Would the AL East Be More Difficult for Santana?

If Santana was to come to the AL East, what could be expected of him? Traditionally, the AL East has been one of the more offensive-packed leagues in baseball. But the level of competition in the AL Central has been on the rise. So first I'll take a look at how the AL Central and AL East compare offensively.

In 2007, the AL East had two of the top five offenses in baseball. It also had the 15th, 16th, and 17th best offenses in baseball respectively. The average AL East team last year scored 825.2 runs.

On the other hand, the AL Central had two of the top ten offenses in baseball. It was also home to baseball's 25th, 27th and 28th best offenses respectively. The average AL Central team last year scored 763 runs. BUT Johan Santana played for the Twins, so he never got the benefit of facing their weak offense. So the average division rival that Santana faced in 2007 scored 774.25 runs.

That total is still significantly lower than the average offensive output of AL East teams. But then you must also consider the team that Santana would be playing for in the AL East. Fortunately for Santana, he would be heading to one of the top five offenses in baseball, and so would never have to face them.

If Santana went to the Red Sox, and had to face division teams including the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays, the average offensive output for those teams last year was 814.75 runs. And if Santana went to the Yankees, only had to face division teams including the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles and Devils, the average offensive output for those teams last year was 789.5 runs. That second average still is higher than that of the AL Central teams he faced last year, but it's only higher by 14.75 runs.

Over a 162 game season, a difference of 14.75 runs is less than a tenth of a run per game. If Santana pitched for the Red Sox, that difference would be more significant at a quarter of a run per game. And Fenway Park would likely also cause an increase in his ERA, but park factors only hurt peripherals, not ability to win games because visiting pitchers suffer under the same park factors.

One also must ponder the affects of the Orioles and Rays losing some of their best run producers in Miguel Tejada and Delmon Young. I doubt the loss of those two players alone will affect the potency of AL East offenses all that much, however.

In reality, it appears as if pitching in the AL East would be slightly more difficult than pitching for the Twins in the AL Central. But while the AL East may hurt his peripherals, pitching for the Red Sox or Twins would significantly help his win totals. Those teams are likely to a couple of the most winningest teams of 2008, with a couple of the best offenses in baseball.

Santana News Is Back, Yanks Still Unlikely

Despite news to the contrary for the past month, many fans, and even writers have speculated that the Red Sox are only involved in Santana talks to drive up the price for the Yankees. Why would the Red Sox be involved to drive up the price for the team least involved in Santana talks? Peter Abraham reiterated today, that "there are no indications that the Yankees will suddenly get back into the mix for Johan Santana."

You have to be careful with news like this, as teams routinely provide misinformation to the media. But to anyone who still thinks the Yankees are heavily involved in Santana talks, I challenge you to provide one piece of evidence that the Yankees have been involved since the Winter Meetings. In the words of a Yankees team source, "we pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." The New York Post, as well as several other sources, have confirmed that the two teams "have not seriously discussed players with the Twins" since the winter meetings."

The package which the Yankees offered the Twins is widely believed to involve Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez. But the New York Daily News reported back in early December, that the Yankees took that deal off the table. These seems to confirm other reports that the Yankees haven't had a deal on the table since the Winter Meetings.

So why exactly would the Red Sox be driving up the price? In reality, the Red Sox have been the team most involved in Santana talks. And without competition, there's a good chance that the Red Sox current package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson is the best offer available to the Twins. The Red Sox would be crazy not to take that deal, even if they were involved just to drive up Santana's price.

Red Sox Still Have Holes to Fill

Since the Red Sox became involved in talks regarding Johan Santana, more than a month ago, they haven't made a single move. Not only do Santana talks require quite a bit of the team's attention, but it prevents the Red Sox from discussing trades involving many players such as Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson.

When the new year comes in a couple days, and the Twins return to the negotiating table, the Red Sox will have some decisions to make. The best possible outcome of the new year, would be a quick resolution of the Santana talks, in which Santana is dealt to either the Red Sox or the Mets. That way the Red Sox could focus on filling up the remaining holes in their roster.

If, however, Santana talks continue to be drawn out for weeks to come, the Red Sox options for their remaining needs of a backup catcher, backup corner infielder and backup outfielder may be somewhat limited. And the Red Sox may have to settle with the bullpen they have, rather than adding some additional insurance and depth to their relief staff.

Backup Catcher - If the season began today, the Red Sox would most likely go with minor leaguer Dusty Brown (career stats) as their backup catcher. Brown hit .268/.344/.453 last year at the Double-A level, and is an excellent defensive catcher with a good arm. But he's yet to play more than eight games at the Triple-A level, and the Red Sox may prefer a more proven option.

If the Red Sox retain Coco Crisp, they could deal him for Rangers backup catcher Gerald Laird. Both teams expressed interest in such a trade before the Santana talk began. Laird is another stellar defensive catcher with a great arm. But unlike Brown, he projects to eventually become an everyday catcher, which would make him more appealing to the Red Sox.

Laird hit .310/.380/.562 at the Triple-A level in 2005, but he's yet to come into his own as a major league offensive threat. In 2006, Laird had a solid line of .296/.332/.473 but last year he had a bizarre off year. Not only did he not hit, but he didn't field either, having the lowest fielding percentage of all catchers in 2007.

If the Red Sox trade Crisp in a Santana deal. They could either fall back on a free agent such as Doug Mirabelli or the more expensive Johnny Estrada. Or the Red Sox could attempt a trade for someone like Michael Barrett, who's stock has taken a dip.

Backup Corner Infielder - The only player I know of that the Red Sox have made a formal offer to is Ryan Klesko. Klesko would be a good hitting backup and would provide a left-handed bat off the bench to oppose the right-handed bats of Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell. Defensively, however, Klesko is challenged.

If the Red Sox prefer a more defensive minded option, they could go with free agent Jeff Cirillo. Cirillo is a lefty killer who plays both corner infield spots well. He also hit .340/.375/.500 with runners in scoring position last year, something which could make him a valuable option off the bench for both defense and offense.

Backup Outfielder - Whether or not the Red Sox acquire Santana, they're going to deal Crisp somewhere else. Ellsbury is their center fielder of the present and future and Crisp has said that he won't take a backup role. If Crisp is dealt, Bobby Kielty has said that he'd return to the Red Sox as a free agent. Kielty could provide an alternative to Drew when the Red Sox face lefties, but Kielty didn't hit lefties very well last year.

The Red Sox may prefer the cheaper option of promoting from within. Brandon Moss could be a valuable backup outfielder. He has above average speed for a corner outfielder and has the arm to play even right field. And offensively, Moss has a steady, effective approach at the plate. He hit .282/.363/.471 at Triple-A last year, and .280/.379/.440 in 15 games with the Red Sox.

I like Moss a lot. Even if he never reaches his full potential as a power hitting corner outfielder, I still like his steady, solid approach to the game. He can field, he can throw, he's a patient hitter, and he can hit both lefties and righties. He strikes out a bit too much, but he is only 24 and once he manages his strike out totals, his offensive output could increase quite a bit. I'd like to see what he could do in more time at the major league level.

That covers the major needs of the Red Sox going into 2008. As stated earlier, they may also look to add another reliever. That's more of a luxury than a necessity, however, with Okajima and Delcarmen already on the roster. It's easy to get excited about the Red Sox with all their pitching depth, offense, and good young prospects.

But before getting too excited, you have to remember that there are important spots on the roster which the Red Sox have yet to fill. Once they have found a backup catcher, infielder and outfielder, I'll be able to rest more easily. Although, with the Red Sox great farm system, I have a feeling many of these positions will be won in Spring Training, with Red Sox minor leaguers providing firm competition to any free agents who may be brought in.

More Non-Updates On Santana

Now that teams have taken some time off, Santana updates have become a daily occurrence. It must be that it's just an easy subject to write about. Although, given how much the subject has been milked to death, I'd be surprised if people didn't just skip over stories involving his name.

Today's Santana non-update comes from Joel Sherman of New York City. Come on down! Joel's update can be summed up by the following. "According to multiple executives spoken to yesterday, the Red Sox remain the strong favorite to obtain the star lefty if - and probably more likely, when - he is traded in the new year."

Very nice Joel, throw the word strong in front of favorites and it's almost as if this was news. When was the last time the Red Sox weren't favorites to land Santana? And just to make his article seem extra full of news, Sherman says that Santana's most likely going to be traded.

This shouldn't come as a surprise either. Unless you allowed yourself to be fooled by the article yesterday that is. Funny, if the Twins really did have the resources to resign Santana, you'd think they would attempted it before spending the last month of their time trying to trade him. Not to mention, the Twins have been on vacation for almost a week, and are waiting for the new year to discuss Santana again.

I'm not going to put another picture up of Santana. I'm tired of this story. Wake me up on January 1st.

Quote of the Day

"No one really has any new info on the Santana talks, but that's not going to stop them from posting stories."

-Rotoworld

Yesterday the Twins lowered their demands (but only to the Yankees), today they're going to hold onto Santana. Incredible! Writers are coming up with more updates now that the Twins front office is on holiday, than they were before the Twins went on holiday. The wonders of the press.

Holiday Wrap Up

Not too much new news making the rounds. This is likely due to the fact that most teams are taking time off for the holidays. Legitimate free agent and trade talk probably won't start again until after the New Year.

A few days ago, it was reported that David Ortiz didn't think the Red Sox would trade for Johan Santana. What was lost on most readers, however, is that the comment was supposed to be a joke. He followed up his statement by saying, "[Minnesota] already gave Boston too many good things already. Me, and now Santana? No way." And Rotoworld added, "don't forget Kevin Garnett and Randy Moss."

Then today, Murray Chass had an "update" on the Santana talks. According to Chass, the Twins have realized that they aren't going to get Ian Kennedy, so they've inquired on Jeff Marquez. But this is more recycling of old news than it is an update. It was reported three weeks ago that Marquez had been substituted for Kennedy in trade talks with Santana. It was also reported that the Yankees still weren't willing to make a deal, even after the substitution.

If this is new news, then I must be psychic. I've already discussed the merits of a Yankees package including Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez.

Be sure to vote on the poll to the right, concerning Jon Lester's win total next year. The poll will be closed in four days and I'll be moving on to bigger and better things.

For Red Sox Fans, Real New Year's Countdown Will Begin In January

Nick Cafardo provided a Santana update today. According to Cafardo, once New Year's celebrations are over, the Twins will "get down to the nitty-gritty". They'll ask for final offers from the Red Sox, and other other team that will listen, and then it's expected that they will select an offer and deal Santana.

And by all appearances, that team is likely to be the Red Sox. Now, whether the talk of the Twins taking final offers is reality, or simply a negotiation ploy is yet to be seen. But given how drawn out the Santana talks have become, I'd like to think it's a reality.

I'm not sure which would be more exciting, celebrating a new year, or celebrating the acquisition of the best pitcher in baseball. It would be a shame for the Red Sox to be the favorite for Santana for so many weeks, only to see another team step up their offer at the last second.

Santana - Why the Red Sox Package Makes Sense

When news of a possible Santana deal first broke, Peter Gammons speculated that it would take a package including Chien-Ming Wang or Robinson Cano, plus a premium prospect. Months later, the Twins are struggling just to get a premium prospect. I think it's fair to say that the demand for Santana isn't as high as many expected it to be.

This is likely due to a few factors. First of all, the salary that Santana would command really limits to the teams he could be dealt to. And the list of teams that the Twins could match up with in a trade is even further limited by Santana's no-trade clause. It's unclear which teams Santana would accept being dealt to, but most likely due to financial restrictions, only a few teams showed serious interest in Santana: the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As for a Mets, they simply didn't have the prospects to be a good match. And so any Santana deal would require them to give up a major piece of their major league team such as Jose Reyes. To no one's surprise, the Mets didn't bite.

As for the Yankees, Brian Cashman has become very conservative about trading young prospects. The Twins had to fight so hard to get Phil Hughes included in a deal, that once the did, the Yankees were unwilling to budge on any more talent. The best package that the Yankees seem willing to provide is a rather weak package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez. And if Cashman had his way, Hughes wouldn't even be on the table.

So that leaves the Twins with the Red Sox. Like other teams, the Red Sox aren't willing to offer a star major league player in return for Santana. But the Red Sox do offer one thing that other teams don't, multiple quality prospects in Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. In addition to offering multiple quality prospects, the players the Red Sox are offering, would also fill the most holes for the Twins.

The Twins need a center fielder, a middle infielder, and since they've already dealt Matt Garza, they could use multiple pitching prospects. Ideally, those pitching prospects would be able to help out the major league team either in 2008, or fairly soon after.

The quantity available in the Red Sox package makes sense for the Twins for multiple reasons. First of all, the more cost controlled players the Twins receive in a deal, the more money they'll be saving on the free agent market. This has to be an utmost concern for a cost conscious team such as the Twins.

By dealing Santana for multiple quality prospects, it also diversifies the Twins investment. You could consider Johan Santana capital, and the Twins would be trading in that capital for stocks, which the they hope develop into good investments. Well, if the Twins were to trade Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez, what would happen if Hughes didn't work out as well as he's projected to? They'd lose almost all of the value that they received in the deal.

On the other hand, if the Twins were to acquire Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, they could still get a good deal of value out of the deal if one of those prospects didn't work out. Would the Twins be getting equal value for Santana? No. But the Twins are in a rather odd position in that regard.

If the Twins do not trade Johan Santana, they would not be able to afford him when he hits the free agent market next year. And if Santana leaves via free agency, which he almost certainly would, the Twins would receive only two sandwich draft picks for compensation. That chances of those draft picks being as valuable as Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson are very remote.

The Twins could go into the season with Santana, hoping to trade him at the deadline, but Santana has said that the wouldn't allow a trade mid-season. So the Twins will likely have to take whatever the best offer is on the table going into next season. Currently, that offer appears to be that of the Red Sox, and there are no indications that other teams are willing to offer a better deal.

I expect the Twins to play poker a little longer, hoping the Red Sox will up their offer with the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury. In the end, however, the Twins will likely have to give up their bluff, as they aren't the ones holding the cards. They simply don't have the money to afford Santana, so they'll have to get the best value possible for him. And in order to do that, they'll have to trade him soon, even though it's not the best market for him.

Yankees Not In On Santana? Why Their Package Isn't Enough

Earlier today, Newsday cited a source "with knowledge of the situation", who on behalf of the Yankees said, "I don't see it happening with us. We pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." Now I don't know about you, but I find it highly unlikely that the Yankees are completely out.

My personal opinion, is that the Yankees at this point aren't willing to give up Hughes and another quality prospect. They've demonstrated a strong unwillingness to include a player such as Chamberlain or Kennedy. And such unwillingness seems rather intelligent. They've also been unwilling, however, to include less valuable prospects such as Alan Horne, Jose Tabatha, or even Austin Jackson.

Whether that thinking will be best for the organization has yet to be seen, but what's clear now is that it's likely not the type of thinking that could land them Santana. I don't think any reasonable fan doubts the value of Phil Hughes. He projects as an ace, and is likely to be better than anyone offered in a Red Sox package. But the Yankees best offered package of Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez offers very little talent in addition to Hughes.

Melky Cabrera's greatest asset is his price. He will be cost controlled for years to come. But his abilities as a baseball player aren't very impressive to anyone outside of New York. Melky's power is very limited, he's slugged only .391 the past two seasons and his patience at the plate is inconsistent. Last year, among center fielders who qualified, Cabrera ranked 10th out of 13th in OPS. And even if he does eventually live up to his minor league line, an OPS of .769, his offensive output would be average for the weak hitting position of a center fielder.

On the defensive side, Cabrera has a rocket for an arm. But I don't think it quite makes up for his limited range and poor instincts. I play softball with some Yankees fans, and when someone takes a poor route to a fly ball, they dub that "pulling a Melky". When someone misjudges a ball at the wall that used to be a "Milledge" but after Delmon Young misjudged a David Ortiz walkoff home run last year, it's now more popularly known as a "Delmon".

As far as Jeff Marquez, it's not as if he doesn't have potential. Marquez is a 23-year-old sinkerball pitcher in the Yankees farm system. He typically throws in the low 90's and has a plus change but he needs much more development. Marquez doesn't have the ability to strike many batters out, and throughout his minor league career he's allowed more hits than innings pitched, which is concerning considering he's only in Double-A. He also has an injury history, which sidelined him for much of his 2006 season.

If the Yankees were serious about Santana, they'd definitely have to add more value to their package. It takes more than one high quality prospect to acquire any ace in a trade, let alone one considered the best pitcher in baseball. But as of now, it looks like they'll be content to go with the players they have, even if that means the Red Sox may acquire the Twins ace.

Prospect Profile - Justin Masterson

Masterson was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft. He got off to a fast start as a reliever at the Single-A level that same year, posting an ERA of 0.85 and a WHIP of 0.65, while striking out more than a batter an inning. He put those numbers up over 14 relief appearances (31.2 innings) in Lowell.

To begin the 2007 season, Masterson was switched back to a starter in notoriously hitter friendly Single-A Lancaster. To give you an idea of just how hitter friendly Lancaster is, the majority of the Lancaster lineup hit .330 or better last year. Two regulars had a slugging percentage better than .650 and of all the members of the team with at least 150 at bats, all but four had a SLG above .490.

Still, Masterson managed to keep a cool head and hold his own. Over 95.2 innings of work, Masterson posted an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.31. Considering the atmosphere in which he was pitching, those numbers are pretty impressive. Masterson managed to limit the damage by walking only 2.07 batters for every nine innings of work and getting two ground ball outs for every out made in the air.

After surviving the gauntlet that is Lancaster, Masterson was promoted to Double-A Portland in July. At Portland, Masterson was quick to impress. In his first appearance, he pitched 6.2 innings of no-hit baseball. The only baserunner he allowed was Lyle Overbay, who walked twice while rehabbing. Overbay then broke up the no-hitter in the 9th inning.

Masterson went on to recorded six quality starts in his first six Dobule-A appearances. His ERA was 1.04, while he struck out 32 batters over his first 26 innings of work. In his seventh and eighth minor league starts, however, Masterson struggled giving up 15 runs over 10 innings of work. Those runs inflated his overall ERA to 4.34.

Still, even with the inflated ERA, Masterson's numbers were incredibly solid. Masterson allowed only 7.60 hits for every nine innings of work, helping him to earn an WHIP of 1.16 while he struck out more than a batter an inning. What was truly impressive however was Masterson's ability to induce ground balls.

In his 58 innings of work at Double-A Portland, Masterson posted an absolutely absurd ground out to fly out ratio of 3.52. That's a better ground out to fly out ratio than any major league pitcher managed last year. In fact, since 1999, only one major league pitcher has ever posted a ground out to fly out ratio better than 3.50, and that was Brandon Webb.

So how does Masterson fit in to the organization's future plans? Well, at the moment it seems rather likely that his largest contribution may be to help acquire Johan Santana in a trade. Just like Jacoby Ellsbury, the Twins are very high on Masterson, who is still only 22 years old. Masterson is likely to be included in any deal for Santana, as his inclusion in a deal is one of the many reasons the Twins appear to prefer trade packages offered by the Red Sox.

But, should the Red Sox miss out on Santana, Masterson projects to be promoted to the major leagues some time around the second half of 2008. He could fill in for an injured starter if the need arises, or he could get rather regular time out of the Boston bullpen. Given how quickly Masterson took to the role of a reliever last year, Masterson could be rather valuable in that role.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him take to the majors rather quickly and he could do so fairly soon should he be dealt to the Twins. He's faced higher levels of competition with quite a bit of focus and intensity. When promoted to Single-A and then Double-A he immediately put up some head turning numbers.