With Winter Winding Down, Twins Aren't Any Closer To A Deal

I'm sorry, but if you're not entertained by the Santana Saga, then you haven't been paying attention. I feel like the Twins should be nominated for a Soapy Award at this point; although they'd have some stiff competition in Hank Streinbrenner. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, or are perhaps a little confused, here's a recap of the happenings the past few days.

On Friday, the Yankees reportedly weren't talking to the Twins about Santana. Then just yesterday, the Yankees repordetly talked to the Twins, but just to let them know that they took their offer off the table. Then less than eight hours later, Hank Streinbrenner weighed in to let everyone know that while "there was no official offer on the table at this time", he hasn't taken his offer off the table.

In case that left you confused as well, Hank did in fact clarfiy the statement. According to Howlin' Hank, he couldn't have taken an offer off the table because "there wasn't an official offer anyway." Sometimes I wonder if Hank just says whatever he thinks will get him the most attention.

So what's developed since yesterday? Well, more of nothing mostly. According to the Star-Ledger Staff, neither the Mets or Yankees appear willing to make a deal with the Twins unless they lower their demands. The Red Sox have been at that same stage in negotiations for some time. So what's this mean?

All three teams appear to have made their final offers. The Red Sox are offering a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and also a package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, but not a package containing both Lester and Ellsbury. The Yankees would offer a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez, but not a package including both Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And the Mets are offering a package of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra but not a package including Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

Either team could quickly make a deal, by giving up the extra guy. But I don't see why any team would. The Red Sox likely believe that they have the best offer. Hank Streinbrenner has said that the thinks his team has the best offer. And the Mets probably don't feel a need to add a fifth prospect to their deal given the fact that they're the only National League team in the running, and they're Santana's desired landing point. Furthmore, they're probably the only team of the trhee with a realistic chance of being able to acquire Erik Bedard.

I seriously doubt that the Twins will go into the season without having dealt Santana. Whether he's bluffing or not, Santana has said that he won't accept a midseason trade. So if the Twins don't deal him before the season begins, the Twins run the risk of getting nothing but two sandwhich picks in the draft when Santana walks.

The Boston Herald, with the help of Baseball America, gave a run down on the three packages which the Twins could currently select from. The article classifies the Mets package as risky, given the fact that most of the players are years removed from being major league ready. The article also classifies the Yankees package as lightweight, given the fact that it includes one blue chip player and two throw-in caliber players.

And I think most fans outside of New York would agree with both statements. If the Twins want the safest return for Satnana, it would likely be the Red Sox package. The Red Sox package includes the most major league ready talent, and fills the most immediate needs for the Twins. The Yankees package offers the Twins a possible ace, but little else. And the Mets package offers the Twins the most overall talent, although little to none of it is major league ready.

For any Yankees fans worried about losing Phil Hughes, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Accepting a package of Hughes, Melky and Marquez probably wouldn't be in the best interests of the Twins. And there's absolutely no chance that the Yankees would give up both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a package for Santana. Although, if it's the Red Sox that acquire Santana, Yankees fans may be wishing otherwise for the next six or seven years.

Santana - Why the Red Sox Package Makes Sense

When news of a possible Santana deal first broke, Peter Gammons speculated that it would take a package including Chien-Ming Wang or Robinson Cano, plus a premium prospect. Months later, the Twins are struggling just to get a premium prospect. I think it's fair to say that the demand for Santana isn't as high as many expected it to be.

This is likely due to a few factors. First of all, the salary that Santana would command really limits to the teams he could be dealt to. And the list of teams that the Twins could match up with in a trade is even further limited by Santana's no-trade clause. It's unclear which teams Santana would accept being dealt to, but most likely due to financial restrictions, only a few teams showed serious interest in Santana: the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As for a Mets, they simply didn't have the prospects to be a good match. And so any Santana deal would require them to give up a major piece of their major league team such as Jose Reyes. To no one's surprise, the Mets didn't bite.

As for the Yankees, Brian Cashman has become very conservative about trading young prospects. The Twins had to fight so hard to get Phil Hughes included in a deal, that once the did, the Yankees were unwilling to budge on any more talent. The best package that the Yankees seem willing to provide is a rather weak package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez. And if Cashman had his way, Hughes wouldn't even be on the table.

So that leaves the Twins with the Red Sox. Like other teams, the Red Sox aren't willing to offer a star major league player in return for Santana. But the Red Sox do offer one thing that other teams don't, multiple quality prospects in Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. In addition to offering multiple quality prospects, the players the Red Sox are offering, would also fill the most holes for the Twins.

The Twins need a center fielder, a middle infielder, and since they've already dealt Matt Garza, they could use multiple pitching prospects. Ideally, those pitching prospects would be able to help out the major league team either in 2008, or fairly soon after.

The quantity available in the Red Sox package makes sense for the Twins for multiple reasons. First of all, the more cost controlled players the Twins receive in a deal, the more money they'll be saving on the free agent market. This has to be an utmost concern for a cost conscious team such as the Twins.

By dealing Santana for multiple quality prospects, it also diversifies the Twins investment. You could consider Johan Santana capital, and the Twins would be trading in that capital for stocks, which the they hope develop into good investments. Well, if the Twins were to trade Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez, what would happen if Hughes didn't work out as well as he's projected to? They'd lose almost all of the value that they received in the deal.

On the other hand, if the Twins were to acquire Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, they could still get a good deal of value out of the deal if one of those prospects didn't work out. Would the Twins be getting equal value for Santana? No. But the Twins are in a rather odd position in that regard.

If the Twins do not trade Johan Santana, they would not be able to afford him when he hits the free agent market next year. And if Santana leaves via free agency, which he almost certainly would, the Twins would receive only two sandwich draft picks for compensation. That chances of those draft picks being as valuable as Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson are very remote.

The Twins could go into the season with Santana, hoping to trade him at the deadline, but Santana has said that the wouldn't allow a trade mid-season. So the Twins will likely have to take whatever the best offer is on the table going into next season. Currently, that offer appears to be that of the Red Sox, and there are no indications that other teams are willing to offer a better deal.

I expect the Twins to play poker a little longer, hoping the Red Sox will up their offer with the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury. In the end, however, the Twins will likely have to give up their bluff, as they aren't the ones holding the cards. They simply don't have the money to afford Santana, so they'll have to get the best value possible for him. And in order to do that, they'll have to trade him soon, even though it's not the best market for him.

Yankees Not In On Santana? Why Their Package Isn't Enough

Earlier today, Newsday cited a source "with knowledge of the situation", who on behalf of the Yankees said, "I don't see it happening with us. We pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." Now I don't know about you, but I find it highly unlikely that the Yankees are completely out.

My personal opinion, is that the Yankees at this point aren't willing to give up Hughes and another quality prospect. They've demonstrated a strong unwillingness to include a player such as Chamberlain or Kennedy. And such unwillingness seems rather intelligent. They've also been unwilling, however, to include less valuable prospects such as Alan Horne, Jose Tabatha, or even Austin Jackson.

Whether that thinking will be best for the organization has yet to be seen, but what's clear now is that it's likely not the type of thinking that could land them Santana. I don't think any reasonable fan doubts the value of Phil Hughes. He projects as an ace, and is likely to be better than anyone offered in a Red Sox package. But the Yankees best offered package of Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez offers very little talent in addition to Hughes.

Melky Cabrera's greatest asset is his price. He will be cost controlled for years to come. But his abilities as a baseball player aren't very impressive to anyone outside of New York. Melky's power is very limited, he's slugged only .391 the past two seasons and his patience at the plate is inconsistent. Last year, among center fielders who qualified, Cabrera ranked 10th out of 13th in OPS. And even if he does eventually live up to his minor league line, an OPS of .769, his offensive output would be average for the weak hitting position of a center fielder.

On the defensive side, Cabrera has a rocket for an arm. But I don't think it quite makes up for his limited range and poor instincts. I play softball with some Yankees fans, and when someone takes a poor route to a fly ball, they dub that "pulling a Melky". When someone misjudges a ball at the wall that used to be a "Milledge" but after Delmon Young misjudged a David Ortiz walkoff home run last year, it's now more popularly known as a "Delmon".

As far as Jeff Marquez, it's not as if he doesn't have potential. Marquez is a 23-year-old sinkerball pitcher in the Yankees farm system. He typically throws in the low 90's and has a plus change but he needs much more development. Marquez doesn't have the ability to strike many batters out, and throughout his minor league career he's allowed more hits than innings pitched, which is concerning considering he's only in Double-A. He also has an injury history, which sidelined him for much of his 2006 season.

If the Yankees were serious about Santana, they'd definitely have to add more value to their package. It takes more than one high quality prospect to acquire any ace in a trade, let alone one considered the best pitcher in baseball. But as of now, it looks like they'll be content to go with the players they have, even if that means the Red Sox may acquire the Twins ace.

Buchholz vs. Hughes

Sorry if that title's misleading. I don't mean for this post to be a pissing match between Red Sox and Yankees fans, each claiming that their pitcher is superior. I would encourage discussion regarding the two pitchers, but this post isn't truly meant as grounds for comparing the two pitchers So, in case you were wondering what inspired the title, here it is.

Keith Law had an open chat today. One of the participants was a Yankees fan from New Jersey, who wrote in with the following question.

"Merry X-mas Keith… Anyone who thinks bucholz is equal to hughes has never looked at anything but a box score… Their pure stuff is comparable, but before the injury, Hughes had a slight edge all around, but hughes is also three years younger and still developing physically. Bucholz is where he’s going to be physically, especially in terms of power (which translates to break on his secondary pitches). Scouts having followed them consider Hughes to be a more intelligent, polished pitcher, despite being younger. Hughes has no personality issues, and showed in the playoffs that he can step into a big spot and come up even bigger. Bucholz has already been arrested and is a spoiled rich kid who thinks he can get away with anything. Hughes mechanics are considered fairly sound, none of his pitches thought to be serious injury risks. Bucholz mechanics on his breaking balls are ‘whippy’ and put a lot of torque on his arm. there is a lot of question how, especially as thin as he is, if his arm will hold up. so… even if there stuff is comparable, age, polish, mechanics, body… all go in favor of hughes… it’s why he was the highest rated pitching prospect in baseball coming into 07."

Keith Law then responded with the following:

"Merry Christmas to you too. I have zero idea where you get any of this from. Buchholz’ raw stuff > Hughes’. When Hughes has two secondary pitches as good as Buchholz’ curve and change, you give me a call, OK?"

Now I've heard many Yankees fans tell me that scouts value Hughes more than Buchholz. But who are these scouts? To be honest, I don't care what scouts have supposedly said. When you read scouting reports it's often unclear when the scouts have done the reports or what organizations these scouts may be affiliated with. Anyone can go out and find a scout who thinks their guy is the real thing. I prefer to rely on my one eyes, not the eyes of some other, semi-anonymous person.

Keith Law seems to be equally confused by who these "scouts" are, and how their opinions are relevant, or accurate. He makes the point that Buchholz does have some incredible secondary pitches. Anyone who saw Buchholz pitch in the majors last year can attest to how filthy his changeup and curve looked.

And I found it humorous how quick the fan was to attack Buchholz' "character issues." Funny how a one time incident when the pitcher was in high school is indicative of character issues. If a one time incident by a high school student is indicative of character issues, then what does that say of Andy Pettitte? Did he not show a one time lack of good judgment ate age 30, when he was an adult major league pitcher who took hGH?

Furthermore, Yankees prospects have been infamously overrated for years. Remember when pitchers like Brien Taylor, Mark Hutton and Sterling Hitchcock were supposed to be the next big things in the early 90's? Not one of them turned out to be the top of the rotation starters they were billed as.

The Yankees play in New York City, their prospects will always have more hype surrounding them, especially in times when the major league team hasn't brought home in a championship in a while. But the reality of the situation is, regardless of how great a name Melky Cabrera has, he still barely outhit Coco Crisp last year, by .006 points in OPS and he's an average defensive player. Maybe it's just me, but I find it hard to be excited about anyone who hits like Coco Crisp.

I think it's rather mundane to try to claim either pitcher is better than the other. They're in their low 20's and neither one has pitched even half a season at the major league level. Both are works in progress and fans of either pitcher will only see what they want to. The issue of which pitcher is better is one that we will all have to wait to observe.

Cashman Wants To Take Hughes Off the Table

Brian Cashman is advocating for removing Hughes from any potential deal for Johan Santana. The move would effectively remove the Yankees from the running, and could quickly lead to an agreement between the Red Sox and Twins. Outside of the Johan Santana, this news could have larger implications for the Yankees front office.

It's likely a sign of a larger rift between Brian Cashman and Hank Steinbrenner. While Cashman would like to remove Hughes from trade talks, Hank Steinbrenner would much prefer to make a deal for Santana including Hughes. And Hank doesn't seem like the most agreeable guy in the world.

Before returning to the Yankees prior to the 2006 season, Cashman had to be assured that he'd have almost full control of Yankees personnel decisions. Now, two years later, the Yankees are under new ownership and Cashman seems to have lost the power in the organization that he worked so hard to secure.

Stay tuned, this could be the beginning of some very interesting developments. The Yankees have seen changes in ownership and managing in the past few months, could the General Manager be next?

Santana Talks Plodding Along, Sox Still Favorites

The St. Paul Pioneer Press is reporting that the Red Sox remain the favorites the land Johan Santana. As has been previously reported, the Twins would instantly accept a deal including both Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox, however, are apposed to including Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Santana.

The only real new news in the article, is that a deal may be imminent in the next few days. It's hard to tell whether that bit is based on fact, or was simply thrown in to get people to read the article, filled with mostly recycled news.

If the Red Sox could find a way to trade for Santana, without including Ellsbury, it would be a huge steal. It looks like the Twins are going to go with the same strategy that Billy Beane attempted in the Dan Haren trade. Rather than acquiring one Type A prospect, the Twins would prefer quantity to quality. Not that Jon Lester isn't a quality prospect, he was billed as the Red Sox top prospect only years ago.

Both sides will likely feel each other out for a little longer. Still, the Twins have waited things out for many weeks now and the Red Sox still have the best offer on the table. The Yankees, it appears, would not be willing to give up Joba Chamberlain and would be very hesitant to give up Phil Hughes or any high rated prospects in the lower minors. And the Twins appear to prefer Lester over Kennedy, because Lester is left-handed and has more major league experience.

Eventually, the Twins will tire of waiting things out, and likely accept the Red Sox offer. It appears more likely than not that the Red Sox will acquire the Twins ace. But anything could happen at the last minute. Perhaps the Yankees will change their mind if the Twins come to them saying they're about to deal Santana to the Red Sox.

Red Sox Remain In Lead For Santana

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins and Red Sox continued to talk yesterday. The Twins reportedly have the most interest in Jacoby Ellsbury, and any Ellsbury package would likely include Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, and another prospect.

Meanwhile, talks with the Yankees remain unproductive. To give you an idea of just how unproductive they've been, Kei Igawa is one of the names that has come up. As for the Mets and Angels, there really isn't any new news. Christensen even speculates that the Mets be be in trade talks simply for PR reasons.

In the end, the Red Sox may win Santana by default. A package of Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and a prospect may not be worth Santana, but it fits the needs of the Twins a lot better than a package of just Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect. Other than being cost controlled, Melky Cabrera isn't all that desirable. Defensively he's average, and offensively he ranked 10th of of the 13th in OPS among centerfielders that qualified last year.

I certainly don't like the idea of trading away Jacoby Ellsbury, but his value may never be higher than it is now. And looking at some of Santana's numbers over the years, it's easy to be persuaded.

Over the past four years, Santana has averaged 228 innings per year, an ERA of 2.89, WHIP of 0.99 and 246 strikeouts a year. Not to mention, he won two Cy Young Awards unanimously in 2004 and 2006.

Jon Lester's Ceiling

I have a friend, who for the life of him couldn't understand they the Minnesota Twins would be interested in a deal centered around Jon Lester. I tried to explain to him the potential of Jon Lester. There's no arguing about Lester's stuff - it's great. When Lester first came up to the Double-A level in 2005, he posted an ERA of 2.61 while striking out 163 batters over 148.1 innings of work.

Going into that season of 2005, Baseball America ranked Lester as the Red Sox fourth best prospect, one spot behind Jonathan Papelbon. After the 2005 season, Baseball America ranked Lester as the Red Sox second best prospect, behind only Andy Marte. Marte was only a member of the Red Sox for a small period of time, and was later dealt to the Indians for Coco Crisp. So for all intensive purposes, Lester was ranked as the organization's best prospect, at any position.

In 2006, Lester was promoted to Triple-A where he again was very successful. In just over 46 innings, Lester had an ERA of 2.70, while striking out 43 hitters. On the surface, Lester looked poised to make the leap to the majors. And Lester did on June 10th. Lester even went on to win his first five decisions, and five of his first seven starts. Over those starts, his ERA as low as 2.38. ESPN compared the young lefty to other young pitchers Jered Weaver and Francisco Liriano. Lester's success, however, masked a major issue in his development.

Starting with Lester's promotion to Triple-A in 2006, his control began to suffer greatly. His walk rate jumped to 4.82 walks every nine innings of work. When he stopped hitting his spots, the typically precise pitcher saw his hit rate, home run rate and WHIP rise as his strikeout rate took a slight dip.

Lester's poor control is what now sets him apart from Type A pitching prospects such as Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes. This can be demonstrated by a quick comparison of their walk rates at the Double-A level. I chose the Double-A level because it's the only level at which any of these pitchers have thrown at least 85 innings.

In 2005, Lester walked a batter every 2.6 innings of work at the Double-A level. At the same level, in 2006, Hughes walked a batter every 3.63 innings of work. This year at the Double-A level, Clay Buchholz walked a batter every 3.95 innings of work. Over just 100 innings of work, that's a difference of 13 free passes between Lester and Buchholz, or difference in .13 in WHIP.

Exactly what caused Lester's loss of control is debatable. And it's not a matter to be taken lightly. The cause of his control issues could have a lot to do with his future level of success or failure. Some have argued that Lester's cancer may have played a role. Lester himself admits that his 2006 performance was affected by his cancer at some point in the season, although he doesn't say when. It was clear that by the time he came to the Red Sox in June of 2006, his velocity was down three or four miles per hour from where it typically was.

No one but Lester can know how much his illness affected his performance. Even if he was in perfect health, jumps in his walk rates aren't surprising for someone who had less than 50 innings of experience above the Double-A level, before going to the majors. In fact, a rise in walk rates is typical of most pitchers when they are promoted a level. These spikes in walk rates, however, are usually temporary. Some pitchers take longer than others to then get their walk rates down to normal levels. Some pitchers never reduced their elevated walk rates.

Whether Lester will be able to get his walk rate down in 2008 has yet to be seen. Lester now has a total of 118.1 innings of experience at the Triple-A level and 144.1 innings of experience at the major league level. Compared to his first major league stint, Lester now has over 200 more innings of experience above the Double-A level. Still, he wasn't completely healthy for much of that time.

One person who thinks Lester still has the potential to be a great starter is pitching coach John Farrell. Farrell has told the Red Sox management that he thinks Lester could win anywhere from 15-18 games once he's fully developed. In my opinion, Lester has the raw ability to do so. Last year, Lester kept his major league ERA down to 4.57, even while he walked nearly a better every other inning.

Without a significant improvement in control, however, Lester will never win 18 games. Throughout his minor league career, Lester averaged 3.78 walked per nine innings of work. When he keeps his walk rate below four walks every nine innings, he's been successful. His walk rate was below 4 BB/9 IP when he posted a 2.61 ERA at Double-A in 2005 and when he posted a 3.89 ERA at Triple-A last year. So a walk rate below 4 BB/ 9 IP is what I'm going to look for next year.

Who knows, perhaps he could live up to his potential next year. I think it will probably take him another half a year at least before he begins to realize his ability at the major league level. It could take him as long as two more years. Lester is only 23 years of age, and was hurt by being rushed to the majors, and enduring a year of poor health.

He's already shown he has heart, coming back from cancer to win the deciding game of the World Series. Now it's just a matter of putting the ball where he wants it to be. Not that that's an easy task. Major leaguers have long lived or died by their ability to do it. As they say, it's a game of inches.