"Diminishing" Red Sox and Yankees Packages for Santana

There has been such a lack of Santana news lately, that I was wondering if teams forgot he available. But Charley Walters had an update today which makes it sound more like teams have simply lost interest. The most important thing he said is that the Yankees are no longer considering parting with Phil Hughes. If Walters is accurate in this, then the Yankees have virtually eliminated any chance they had of acquiring Santana.

Walters specifically said that, "offers by the New York Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Boston Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Walters doesn't mention how the Red Sox offers for Santana have diminished, but I wouldn't be surprised if they've taken Ellsbury off the table. I'm not sure how much that affects their chances of acquiring Santana, however, as it appeared that the Twins preferred the Red Sox package which included Jon Lester.

If this is all true, then I think the Mets chances of acquiring Santana have increased. But without the Yankees involved anymore, the Red Sox chances of acquiring Santana could be as good as ever. I've said it before, and it seems to be even more and more likely now - Twins fans will probably be disappointed with the return on Santana.

Twins GM Bill Smith can only yank these teams around for so many months. If he's lost out on a chance to acquire a Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury or Fernando Martinez, it would be a very rough start to his tenure as Twins GM.

How Does the Mets Package Stack Up?

Carlos Gomez (Jim McIsaac/Agence France-Presse)

The latest on Santana, courtesy of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, is that Twins officials have privately said that they expect Santana to be dealt by Spring Training. The article also says that while the Red Sox and Yankees are still involved, the Twins have showed the most interest in the Mets offer lately.

That Mets offer includes Carolos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The only problem is, most baseball fans I'm sure have little to no idea what kind of prospects those players are. And it doesn't help that respected prospect rankings by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus aren't due for another month. But thankfully, there's John Sickels of minorleagueball.com.

Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book. He looks at the top 20 prospects in every organization, and assigns them letter grades based on their value. When trying to compare trade packages made up mostly of prospects, these simplified prospect ratings can be very useful.

The Mets package for Santana is rumored to consist of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are attempting to get the Mets to add Fernando Martinez to the deal, but they aren't the one with leverage in the situation. The Twins have to unload Santana, they don't have the monetary resources to retain him.

So what kind of prospects are the Mets offering? Their package includes three pitchers in Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. Guerra received a rating of B+, making him the highest rated player in the package. But he's yet to pitch above the Single-A level. Molvey and Humber received grades of B and B- respectively. And both of them are likely to begin the season in Triple-A.

Carolos Gomez is the only position player in the deal. Sickels rated him a B prospect. He's kind of a toolsy outfielder with average plate discipline and little power.

So what's the positive of the Mets package? It offers more pitchers than any other package. All four players offered in the deal will also be cost controlled for many years to come. By accepting the Mets offer, the Twins would also be dealing Santana to a team outside of the American League.

On the other hand, the players in the package have virtually no major league experience. And none of the players that the Mets are offering have true star potential. There's no great position player or pitching prospect.

This makes it almost the opposite of the Red Sox package. The Red Sox are offering the package with the most major league experience when compared to all other packages available for Santana. And the Red Sox are also offering a package which has the most high quality talent out of any package available.

The Red Sox package of Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson contains two grade A- position players and a grade B pitcher. Or if the Twins want more major league experience and a wider range of players, they could go for the Red Sox package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. That package could potentially fill two rotation spots, the Twins need for a center fielder, and their need for a middle infielder who can actually hit.

Based on the talent available in the deals, I find it hard to believe that the Twins would prefer the Mets package based on the return alone. But the Twins would likely prefer to deal Santana to the National League. And Santana would prefer to go to the National League as well, where he'd likely dominate weaker hitting competition.

With Winter Winding Down, Twins Aren't Any Closer To A Deal

I'm sorry, but if you're not entertained by the Santana Saga, then you haven't been paying attention. I feel like the Twins should be nominated for a Soapy Award at this point; although they'd have some stiff competition in Hank Streinbrenner. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, or are perhaps a little confused, here's a recap of the happenings the past few days.

On Friday, the Yankees reportedly weren't talking to the Twins about Santana. Then just yesterday, the Yankees repordetly talked to the Twins, but just to let them know that they took their offer off the table. Then less than eight hours later, Hank Streinbrenner weighed in to let everyone know that while "there was no official offer on the table at this time", he hasn't taken his offer off the table.

In case that left you confused as well, Hank did in fact clarfiy the statement. According to Howlin' Hank, he couldn't have taken an offer off the table because "there wasn't an official offer anyway." Sometimes I wonder if Hank just says whatever he thinks will get him the most attention.

So what's developed since yesterday? Well, more of nothing mostly. According to the Star-Ledger Staff, neither the Mets or Yankees appear willing to make a deal with the Twins unless they lower their demands. The Red Sox have been at that same stage in negotiations for some time. So what's this mean?

All three teams appear to have made their final offers. The Red Sox are offering a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and also a package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, but not a package containing both Lester and Ellsbury. The Yankees would offer a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez, but not a package including both Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And the Mets are offering a package of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra but not a package including Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

Either team could quickly make a deal, by giving up the extra guy. But I don't see why any team would. The Red Sox likely believe that they have the best offer. Hank Streinbrenner has said that the thinks his team has the best offer. And the Mets probably don't feel a need to add a fifth prospect to their deal given the fact that they're the only National League team in the running, and they're Santana's desired landing point. Furthmore, they're probably the only team of the trhee with a realistic chance of being able to acquire Erik Bedard.

I seriously doubt that the Twins will go into the season without having dealt Santana. Whether he's bluffing or not, Santana has said that he won't accept a midseason trade. So if the Twins don't deal him before the season begins, the Twins run the risk of getting nothing but two sandwhich picks in the draft when Santana walks.

The Boston Herald, with the help of Baseball America, gave a run down on the three packages which the Twins could currently select from. The article classifies the Mets package as risky, given the fact that most of the players are years removed from being major league ready. The article also classifies the Yankees package as lightweight, given the fact that it includes one blue chip player and two throw-in caliber players.

And I think most fans outside of New York would agree with both statements. If the Twins want the safest return for Satnana, it would likely be the Red Sox package. The Red Sox package includes the most major league ready talent, and fills the most immediate needs for the Twins. The Yankees package offers the Twins a possible ace, but little else. And the Mets package offers the Twins the most overall talent, although little to none of it is major league ready.

For any Yankees fans worried about losing Phil Hughes, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Accepting a package of Hughes, Melky and Marquez probably wouldn't be in the best interests of the Twins. And there's absolutely no chance that the Yankees would give up both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a package for Santana. Although, if it's the Red Sox that acquire Santana, Yankees fans may be wishing otherwise for the next six or seven years.

Mets Positioning For A Santana Deal?

A few days ago, I mentioned that Peter Gammons thought the Mets were stockpiling talent in preparation for a Johan Santana deal. This, he thought, may explain why the Twins have been waiting to make a deal. A couple of days ago, the Mets dealt for fourth outfielder Angel Pagan. And Pagan could theoretically replace Carlos Gomez on the Mets roster next year, should Gomez be dealt in a Santana deal.

That same day, it was reported that the Mets have interest in Athletics pitcher Joe Blanton. Could they be trying to pressure the Twins into a deal? If the Mets were to acquire Blanton, it would take them out of the Santana sweepstakes, leaving only two teams. And the true interest levels of the Red Sox and Yankees are somewhat questionable. Of all three times, I think it's fair to say that the Mets need Santana the most.

In addition to pressure from the Mets, Hank Steinbrenner appears to be applying pressure to the Twins to make a deal. On Thursday when talking about Johan Santana, Steinbrenner said, "in the next two weeks, we're going to have to get everything done." For once, I wish Hank had the slightest bit of credibility when it came to ultimatums. Maybe he actually could help to get the ball rolling. Unfortunately, Hank's believability is more like that of a car salesman than a team owner.

Conflicting News On Santana

There was also conflicting news regarding the Mets. Peter Gammons says he thinks the Mets are attempting to stockpile talent with which to trade for Santana. John Heyman thinks the Mets are offering Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, and Kevin Mulvey for Johan Santana. Seems strange that the Twins haven't taken the deal then.

On the other hand, Mike Francesca is saying that the Twins are demanding Jose Reyes, which will never happen. And to wrap things up, Keith Law is saying that the Mets would never trade Fernando Martinez for Santana, given that there's only one year left on his current contract.

Given the multitude of Mets news, and their conflicting nature, it's likely that some of this is misinformation. The Twins might be trying to make it look like a deal is eminent, in order to get the Red Sox or Yankees to increase their offers. However, there have already been two false reports of eminent deals, one to the Yankees, then one to the Red Sox. And to this point, no one's increased their offers.

Hank Steinbrenner also weighed in on Santana. He implied that Yankees offer of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez could be back on the table. Although, there are no indications that the Yankees are any more interested in a deal. According to Hank the Yankees have "already made the best offer". He's likely referring to the Yankees offer of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez which is in reality is somewhat weak.