Francona Discusses Red Sox Rotation

(Jim Davis)

Red Sox manager Terry Francona fielded questions on Thursday at the Boston Baseball Writers' Assocation of America. And for those of you wondering about the Red Sox rotation in 2008, he answered almost every question you could have.

According to Francona, the Red Sox will begin their rotation with Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Although, Matsuzaka's wife may be having a child while the Red Sox are in Japan, so Matsuzaka may not be able to pitch in the second game of the season. I think it would be a real shame if Matsuzaka can't make the trip to Japan. It would be exceptional to see him pitch in front of his fellow countrymen who idolize him so much.

The Red Sox will play three exhibition games after they come back from Japan. Those exhibition games will allow them to use their top two starters not only in the first two games of the season, but also the third and fourth game of the season. The number three, four and five pitchers for the Red Sox will pitch in the exhibition games.

Francona also talked about the back of his rotation. Wakefield will begin the season as the team's number four starter. And Lester and Buchholz will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation. Given pitching coach John Farrell's strong like of Jon Lester, I'd be surprised if he didn't start the season in the rotation. But both Lester and Buchholz do have minor innings concerns. Their total workload will likely be capped somewhere around 180 innings each.

It's good to have Clay Buchholz, considered by most to be the best pitching prospect in baseball, as a backup starter. He could likely provide some high quality replacement innings for any other pitcher in the organization who either struggles or gets injured. Even though I think it's likely that Buchholz will start the season outside of the Red Sox rotation, if he pitches anything like he did last year, I'm sure he'll find a way onto the roster.

John Farrell An Unsung Hero of 2007

(Brita Meng Outzen/MLB.com)

In 2006, Red Sox pitching was utterly embarrassing. Their staff ranked fifth to last in ERA and was below major league average in quality starts, batting average against, total walks, complete games and shut outs. Although the Red Sox finished third in the AL East, their pitching staff was more comparable to those of basement dwelling teams.

In 2007, the Red Sox saw dramatic improvement in their pitching staff. Among other American League teams, the Red Sox staff's ERA, WHIP and BAA went from 10th or worse to first. The staff's overall walk total decreased by 27 and their strikeout total increased by 79. Newcomers Diasuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima helped, but for the most part the Red Sox returned the same pitching staff from 2006. Of the 13 pitchers who made significant contributions in 2007 (at least 35 innings), all but two of them were holdovers from 2006.

So what was the largest difference to the Red Sox pitching staff in 2007? I'd like to make the case for new Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell. First of all, I'll provide a quick background on Farrell. Outside of college baseball he had never coached before 2007. He did serve as the Director of Player development for the Cleveland Indians starting in late 2001. He helped the organization to have 2003's top rated farm system according to Baseball America.

He left the Indians organization to become the Red Sox pitching coach last year, and already he's made some serious waves. In Spring Training, Farrell worked with Josh Beckett to help him standardize his delivery. Beckett posted his lowest BB/9 since he was drafted and had a career year at the major league level.

Farrell also worked with new pitcher Hideki Okajima. In the humidity of Florida Spring Training, Okajima had trouble with his changeup. So Farrell helped him to devliver a new grip on his changeup, which would create more movement. The result was the creation of Okajima's split-change nicknamed the "Okie Doke". And against major leaguers in 2007, Okajima had a lower WHIP than he ever had in the 11 years that he faced Japanese hitters.

Under the tutelage of Farrell, young pitchers Jon Lester and Manny Delcarmen also saw positive improvements in their development. I'm not sure if Jonathan Papelbon really needed all that much tutelage, but in 2007 he lead the majors in K/9 innings pitched.

In 2008, Farrell will look to continue the development of young Red Sox pitchers. Farrell has fallen in love with Jon Lester, and seems determined to make the young lefty his next project. But I'm sure Farrell will also work extensively with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz. And God forbid if Farrell works on Beckett any more, that would just be unfair.

2008 Red Sox Pitching Projections - Starters

(Brian Snyder/Reuters)

So I just got my hands on a copy of the Bill James Handbook. It's become an annual tradition for me to view the information in it. Others might find it boring, but for me it provides some interesting food for thought when I'm in desperate need for baseball. I'm going to be discussing a lot of information in the book over the next few weeks. To begin the discussion I thought I'd look at the projections for the Red Sox starting pitchers. Here are the projections, coupled with my thoughts.

Josh Beckett - 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP (203 IP, 184 H, 64 BB, 187 SO)

I was a little surprised to see such a high ERA projection, even though 2007 was a career year for Beckett. Since his rookie season, Beckett's posted an ERA on the lower side of 3.50 most of the time. Other than Beckett's atypical 2006 season, Beckett's BB/9 IP has gone down every year, yet the projection expects it to go back up in 2008.

I can understand why the projection is so high, as projections must give weight to Beckett's 2006 season. But most indications point to 2006 being an off year and 2007 being an indicator of improving ability at the major league level as he enters the prime ages of most pitchers' careers.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP (193 IP, 173 H, 64 BB, 184 SO)

I was surprised by these numbers too, but this time because of how low they were. But I can understand why the projection would like Daisuke so much. These numbers are similar to the ones he posted before he wore down late in the season. Matsuzaka had an ERA of 3.84 and a WHIP of 1.24 in the first half of 2007. Daisuke's ERA was as low as 3.59 on August 10th. You also have to consider that 2007 was Matsuzaka's rookie season.

Curt Schilling - 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (160 IP, 161 H, 25 BB, 150 SO)

I was quite surprised by this projection as well. Schilling hasn't posted a year like this since 2004, and he's not getting any younger. It's not that Schilling didn't have a very good year in 2007 (3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). But why is his 2008 expected to be such an improvement? His projection seems to think there will be drastic drops in his hits rate and a drastic improvement in his strike out rate.

Tim Wakefield - 4.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (181 IP, 174 H, 63 BB, 123 SO)

Wakefield is up and down year to year but it's been a while since he's put up some numbers like these. Either the Bill James Handbook thinks Wakefield the fountain of youth, or they just assume every pitcher over 40 uses performance enhancers.

Jon Lester - 4.42 ERA, 1.55 WHIP (175 IP, 183 H, 89 BB, 149 SO)

It's easy to get excited about Lester given his raw stuff, but this is probably a fair projection for 2008. The numbers aren't great but they're about league average for a starter.

Clay Buchholz

Although Buchholz figures to play a large role in the Red Sox rotation, the Bill James Handbook could not project his statistics based on such a small major league sample size.

Will There Be Darvish Mania In 2008?

It is rumored that the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Cubs are all interested in Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish. I think it's a little early to start the hoopla over a pitcher who will be available after the 2008 season at the earliest, and may or may not be posted by his team. But for now, I'll play along.

Yu Darvish hails from the Pacific League of Japan, the more difficult of the two leagues because it uses the designated hitter rule. On the other hand, Darvish's home stadium the Sapporo Dome, is one of the largest parks in Japanese baseball. Koshien Stadium has traditionally been the most pitching friendly park in Japanese baseball. But the newly built Sapparo Dome's left and right field walls are more than 13 feet further, it's centerfielder wall more than 6 feet further. And the Dome's outfield wall is nearly 20 feet tall all around.

If Darvish is posted, which is pure speculation at this point, it will be interesting to see what kind of a posting fee and salary that he'd command. That will depend on a few factors. First of all it will depend on Darvish's 2008 season. He won the Sawamura Award last year (the equivalent to the Cy Young Award in MLB) in his career best year. If he has a similar year next year, he'll likely command a much higher salary and posting fee than Daisuke Matsuzaka. If, however, he reverts to his career averages, his posting fee likely won't be as much. Darvish's value could also depend on how Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hiroki Kuroda translate their success in Japan to success in the majors next year.

Here's a quick comparison of Darvish and Matsuzaka. I'll look at their last two years in Nippon Professional Baseball, so as to avoid Darvish's rookie year.

Darvish in 2007 - 207.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 5.33 H/9, 2.12 BB/9, 9.10 K/9
Matsuzaka in 2006 - 186.1 IP, 2.13 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 6.67 H/9, 1.64 BB/9, 9.66 K/9

Darvish in 2006 - 149.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.70 H/9, 3.85 BB/9, 6.91 K/9
Matsuzaka in 2005 - 215 IP, 2.30 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.20 H/9, 2.05 BB/9, 9.46 K/9

As you can see, Matsuzaka has better walk and strikeout ratios, even when compared to Darvish's best year. But Darvish's 2007 season was statistically better than any that Matsuzaka has ever posted. As of now, I'd say both are rather similar talents. Matsuzaka is the more proven of the two but both are young and both won the Sawamura Award in their age 20 seasons. Darvish is also six years younger.