Miscellanious Trade News

Somewhere online I found this interpretation of Johan Santana pitching to Pablo Ozuna. Sad part is, it's probably more interesting than the Santana Saga has been for weeks. I miss Legos...

Not too much new going on with the Red Sox. Santana's agent has said that his client isn't demanding a deal by the time pitchers and catchers report. Great, so the Santana Saga could drag on for another month and then some. I have a feeling that the Twins are interested in the Mets just because their offer is the most recent.

Ken Rosenthal has a source saying that the Yankees are no longer talking to the Twins. Funny, I feel like I've heard this story at least three times. Bad news for both the Red Sox and paranoid Yankees fans everywhere. Without the Yankees involved in Santana, I'm not sure what else the Red Sox could do this offseason to sabotage them. I hope they have enough money to sign a backup outfielder after they paid so much for George Mitchell. Will that money count when major league baseball tabulates the luxury tax?

Mike Cameron was recently connected to the Yankees, but he's recently agreed to a deal with the Brewers. I'm kind of glad, Cameron would have been an upgrade over Melky Cabrera on both sides of the ball. In some more good news for the Red Sox, the Orioles appear determined to trade away Brian Roberts and Erik, sorry, Érik Bédard.

The Orioles are going to be REALLY bad next year. They finished just three games better than the worst record in the majors last year. They've already dealt away their cleanup hitter, and they're in talks involving their leadoff hitter and staff ace. They could go into next season with a middle infield consisting of Luis Hernandez (.290/.300/.362) and Freddie Bynum (.259/.300/.452) and their Opening Day starter could be Daniel Cabrera. Although, I think I'd go with Guthrie.

The Orioles could help to inflate AL East records next year. According to Pythagereon Record, the Red Sox should have won over 100 games last year. Without Julian Tavarez being a mainstay in the rotation, they could be the first American League team to top the 100 win mark since 2004.

Yankees Offense Due for Recession In 2008

Going into the 2007 season, there was speculation that the Yankees offense was primed to score north of 1,000 runs on the year. Yet, even with career years from Posada (+.103 OPS from 2006) and Rodriguez (+.153 OPS from 2006) the Yankees still fell short of the mark. So what happened?

Well, to put it most simply, aging. The Yankees went into 2007 with two members of their regular lineup younger than their age 33 season. And while you'd be hard pressed to see declining trends in the production of many of the aging Yankees vets going into last season, the age of 33 or 34 is typically when players begin to hit a wall.

And hitting a wall is exactly what much of the Yankees offense did in 2007. Bobby Abreu posted the worst OPS of his career. Both Matsui and Giambi posted the second worst OPS's of their career in 2007, and Damon posted the third worst OPS of his career in the same year. But those numbers don't tell the entire story.

Of all the members of the Yankees offense, Giambi's declining production is probably most concerning. Giambi figures to start the season as the Yankees starting first baseman. And even if he doesn't play the entire season in that role, he'll likely receive quite a bit of playing time there as the Yankees would prefer to DH Matsui and don't have a solid option as a backup first baseman.

Jason Giambi will be 37-years-old in 2008 and is riddled by health issues, likely related to his previous PED use. Last year, Giambi had an OPS of .790 which is well below average for a first baseman. He also struck out every 3.84 at bats, striking out more often than he got a hit. Most concerning about Giambi, however, is the way he breaks down under the wear of the season. Last year, he hit .200/.323/.429 in the second half of the season, even though he only played in 83 games, with the vast majority of his playing time coming as a DH.

Giambi's offensive decline is rather radical, but he's only one member of the offense. The decline in Abreu and Matsui's offense is also concerning. Both players are key members of the Yankees offense who both scored and drove in 100 runs last year. His OBP fell right off the table from a lofty .424 to .369. As for Matsui, his AVG and SLG fell for the second straight season in 2007.

But a continued aging process isn't the only reason the Yankees offense will take a hit in 2008. As previously stated, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both had monster career years last year. The likeliness of either one of those players putting up back to back career years are remote. They are especially remote for Posada, a catcher in his age 35 season.



And one factor which will especially hurt the Yankees offense is their decision to DH Hideki Matsui. Defensively, it may be a necessity as Matsui's defensive abilities have really fallen off. But offensively, it forces the Yankees to play Melky Cabrera in center. And Melky, more than any other Yankee, kills New York's offense.

Any outfielder who puts up an OPS of .718 should not have a starting job on a serious contender like the Yankees. Cabrera's offensive production as a regular player ranked near dead last among the league, even when compared to the weak hitting position of centerfield.

Santana - Why the Red Sox Package Makes Sense

When news of a possible Santana deal first broke, Peter Gammons speculated that it would take a package including Chien-Ming Wang or Robinson Cano, plus a premium prospect. Months later, the Twins are struggling just to get a premium prospect. I think it's fair to say that the demand for Santana isn't as high as many expected it to be.

This is likely due to a few factors. First of all, the salary that Santana would command really limits to the teams he could be dealt to. And the list of teams that the Twins could match up with in a trade is even further limited by Santana's no-trade clause. It's unclear which teams Santana would accept being dealt to, but most likely due to financial restrictions, only a few teams showed serious interest in Santana: the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As for a Mets, they simply didn't have the prospects to be a good match. And so any Santana deal would require them to give up a major piece of their major league team such as Jose Reyes. To no one's surprise, the Mets didn't bite.

As for the Yankees, Brian Cashman has become very conservative about trading young prospects. The Twins had to fight so hard to get Phil Hughes included in a deal, that once the did, the Yankees were unwilling to budge on any more talent. The best package that the Yankees seem willing to provide is a rather weak package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez. And if Cashman had his way, Hughes wouldn't even be on the table.

So that leaves the Twins with the Red Sox. Like other teams, the Red Sox aren't willing to offer a star major league player in return for Santana. But the Red Sox do offer one thing that other teams don't, multiple quality prospects in Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. In addition to offering multiple quality prospects, the players the Red Sox are offering, would also fill the most holes for the Twins.

The Twins need a center fielder, a middle infielder, and since they've already dealt Matt Garza, they could use multiple pitching prospects. Ideally, those pitching prospects would be able to help out the major league team either in 2008, or fairly soon after.

The quantity available in the Red Sox package makes sense for the Twins for multiple reasons. First of all, the more cost controlled players the Twins receive in a deal, the more money they'll be saving on the free agent market. This has to be an utmost concern for a cost conscious team such as the Twins.

By dealing Santana for multiple quality prospects, it also diversifies the Twins investment. You could consider Johan Santana capital, and the Twins would be trading in that capital for stocks, which the they hope develop into good investments. Well, if the Twins were to trade Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez, what would happen if Hughes didn't work out as well as he's projected to? They'd lose almost all of the value that they received in the deal.

On the other hand, if the Twins were to acquire Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, they could still get a good deal of value out of the deal if one of those prospects didn't work out. Would the Twins be getting equal value for Santana? No. But the Twins are in a rather odd position in that regard.

If the Twins do not trade Johan Santana, they would not be able to afford him when he hits the free agent market next year. And if Santana leaves via free agency, which he almost certainly would, the Twins would receive only two sandwich draft picks for compensation. That chances of those draft picks being as valuable as Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson are very remote.

The Twins could go into the season with Santana, hoping to trade him at the deadline, but Santana has said that the wouldn't allow a trade mid-season. So the Twins will likely have to take whatever the best offer is on the table going into next season. Currently, that offer appears to be that of the Red Sox, and there are no indications that other teams are willing to offer a better deal.

I expect the Twins to play poker a little longer, hoping the Red Sox will up their offer with the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury. In the end, however, the Twins will likely have to give up their bluff, as they aren't the ones holding the cards. They simply don't have the money to afford Santana, so they'll have to get the best value possible for him. And in order to do that, they'll have to trade him soon, even though it's not the best market for him.

Yankees Not In On Santana? Why Their Package Isn't Enough

Earlier today, Newsday cited a source "with knowledge of the situation", who on behalf of the Yankees said, "I don't see it happening with us. We pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." Now I don't know about you, but I find it highly unlikely that the Yankees are completely out.

My personal opinion, is that the Yankees at this point aren't willing to give up Hughes and another quality prospect. They've demonstrated a strong unwillingness to include a player such as Chamberlain or Kennedy. And such unwillingness seems rather intelligent. They've also been unwilling, however, to include less valuable prospects such as Alan Horne, Jose Tabatha, or even Austin Jackson.

Whether that thinking will be best for the organization has yet to be seen, but what's clear now is that it's likely not the type of thinking that could land them Santana. I don't think any reasonable fan doubts the value of Phil Hughes. He projects as an ace, and is likely to be better than anyone offered in a Red Sox package. But the Yankees best offered package of Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez offers very little talent in addition to Hughes.

Melky Cabrera's greatest asset is his price. He will be cost controlled for years to come. But his abilities as a baseball player aren't very impressive to anyone outside of New York. Melky's power is very limited, he's slugged only .391 the past two seasons and his patience at the plate is inconsistent. Last year, among center fielders who qualified, Cabrera ranked 10th out of 13th in OPS. And even if he does eventually live up to his minor league line, an OPS of .769, his offensive output would be average for the weak hitting position of a center fielder.

On the defensive side, Cabrera has a rocket for an arm. But I don't think it quite makes up for his limited range and poor instincts. I play softball with some Yankees fans, and when someone takes a poor route to a fly ball, they dub that "pulling a Melky". When someone misjudges a ball at the wall that used to be a "Milledge" but after Delmon Young misjudged a David Ortiz walkoff home run last year, it's now more popularly known as a "Delmon".

As far as Jeff Marquez, it's not as if he doesn't have potential. Marquez is a 23-year-old sinkerball pitcher in the Yankees farm system. He typically throws in the low 90's and has a plus change but he needs much more development. Marquez doesn't have the ability to strike many batters out, and throughout his minor league career he's allowed more hits than innings pitched, which is concerning considering he's only in Double-A. He also has an injury history, which sidelined him for much of his 2006 season.

If the Yankees were serious about Santana, they'd definitely have to add more value to their package. It takes more than one high quality prospect to acquire any ace in a trade, let alone one considered the best pitcher in baseball. But as of now, it looks like they'll be content to go with the players they have, even if that means the Red Sox may acquire the Twins ace.

Red Sox Remain In Lead For Santana

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins and Red Sox continued to talk yesterday. The Twins reportedly have the most interest in Jacoby Ellsbury, and any Ellsbury package would likely include Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, and another prospect.

Meanwhile, talks with the Yankees remain unproductive. To give you an idea of just how unproductive they've been, Kei Igawa is one of the names that has come up. As for the Mets and Angels, there really isn't any new news. Christensen even speculates that the Mets be be in trade talks simply for PR reasons.

In the end, the Red Sox may win Santana by default. A package of Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and a prospect may not be worth Santana, but it fits the needs of the Twins a lot better than a package of just Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect. Other than being cost controlled, Melky Cabrera isn't all that desirable. Defensively he's average, and offensively he ranked 10th of of the 13th in OPS among centerfielders that qualified last year.

I certainly don't like the idea of trading away Jacoby Ellsbury, but his value may never be higher than it is now. And looking at some of Santana's numbers over the years, it's easy to be persuaded.

Over the past four years, Santana has averaged 228 innings per year, an ERA of 2.89, WHIP of 0.99 and 246 strikeouts a year. Not to mention, he won two Cy Young Awards unanimously in 2004 and 2006.

Four Reasons the Yankees Will Not Advance

The Royal Rooters spent quite a bit of their time engaged in debate about the rival Boston Braves. The Braves are now long gone and have been replaced by an even more bitter rival - the New York Yankees. So, in the spirit of The Royal Rooters, I thought I'd take a moment to put the Yankees in their place. Here are five reasons why the Yankees won't see the ALCS this year.

1. Lions In September, Mice In October - The Yankees have had some offensive trouble as well lately. Both Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera have hit below the Mendoza line in September. It's hard to predict even how their hottest hitters will do in October however.

Last year, A-Rod's best month of the year was September. He hit .358/.465/.691 for an OPS of 1.157. Come October however, A-Rod hit under .150 for the second postseason in a row. A-Rod has posted his highest strikeout total of any month this September, striking out more than once every four at bats. Could it be a sign of things to come?

The Yankees have lead the major leagues in runs scored, each of the past regular seasons. Come playoff time however, they haven't been able to average more than four runs a game in either one of the last seasons. 2006 was an especially horrendous series for the Yankees offensively, as they compiled a batting average of .246.

2. Bullpen Inferiority - The Yankees bullpen has been an issue for them all year. It's not really fair to compare the two team's bullpens. The Indians have one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Some of the bullpen arms they can trust include Betancourt (1.47 ERA), Perez (1.78 ERA), Lewis (2.13 ERA) and Fultz (3.03 ERA). Fultz is the only one of those pitchers who does not have more strikeouts than innings pitched.

When it comes to the Yankees however, they essentially only have two bullpen arms which they can trust. One of them is Mariano Rivera, but the other one is rookie Joba Chamberlain, who has never pitched in the postseason. Former Yankees set up man Luis Vizcaino, has really struggled lately. Perhaps his 77 appearances have caught up with him as he's had an ERA over 10 in September.

3. Sabathia and Carmona - Sabathia and Carmona are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league. Both pitchers were in the top 10 in the league in wins, ERA and WHIP. Sabathia could be especially tough for the Yankees. The Yankees have done poorly against lefty starters this season (19-19). They also haven't faced Sabathia in years. The Yankees will have to face those pitchers on the road, where they've gone 42-39 this year.

4. Starting Woes - Outside of Chien-Ming Wang, every member of the Yankees playoff rotation is a question mark. Pettitte, typically one of the best September pitchers in baseball, has really struggled down the stretch. In September, he's had an ERA of 5.86, a WHIP of 1.67 and a BAA of .324. That's good for his worst September in over nine years.

By the time Clemens gets the ball in game three of the ALDS, he will have gone 20 days without pitching. There have been jokes that Clemens will be pitching with his arm on a thread. His real issue however is his hamstring, which is an infamously pesky injury. The last time Clemens pitched in the postseason with a hurt hamstring, the results were disastrous. He blew up in the ALDS and then again in the World Series, lasting only 2 innings. His postseason ERA in that year of 2005, was 5.63.

And finally, we arrive at the Yankees fourth starter, Mike Mussina. Mussina lost his rotation spot after completely falling apart in August. After stringing together two quality starts in a row, Mussina again got lit up, allowing six runs on 11 hits in his last outing. He didn't get out of the fifth inning.