Yankees Offense Due for Recession In 2008

Going into the 2007 season, there was speculation that the Yankees offense was primed to score north of 1,000 runs on the year. Yet, even with career years from Posada (+.103 OPS from 2006) and Rodriguez (+.153 OPS from 2006) the Yankees still fell short of the mark. So what happened?

Well, to put it most simply, aging. The Yankees went into 2007 with two members of their regular lineup younger than their age 33 season. And while you'd be hard pressed to see declining trends in the production of many of the aging Yankees vets going into last season, the age of 33 or 34 is typically when players begin to hit a wall.

And hitting a wall is exactly what much of the Yankees offense did in 2007. Bobby Abreu posted the worst OPS of his career. Both Matsui and Giambi posted the second worst OPS's of their career in 2007, and Damon posted the third worst OPS of his career in the same year. But those numbers don't tell the entire story.

Of all the members of the Yankees offense, Giambi's declining production is probably most concerning. Giambi figures to start the season as the Yankees starting first baseman. And even if he doesn't play the entire season in that role, he'll likely receive quite a bit of playing time there as the Yankees would prefer to DH Matsui and don't have a solid option as a backup first baseman.

Jason Giambi will be 37-years-old in 2008 and is riddled by health issues, likely related to his previous PED use. Last year, Giambi had an OPS of .790 which is well below average for a first baseman. He also struck out every 3.84 at bats, striking out more often than he got a hit. Most concerning about Giambi, however, is the way he breaks down under the wear of the season. Last year, he hit .200/.323/.429 in the second half of the season, even though he only played in 83 games, with the vast majority of his playing time coming as a DH.

Giambi's offensive decline is rather radical, but he's only one member of the offense. The decline in Abreu and Matsui's offense is also concerning. Both players are key members of the Yankees offense who both scored and drove in 100 runs last year. His OBP fell right off the table from a lofty .424 to .369. As for Matsui, his AVG and SLG fell for the second straight season in 2007.

But a continued aging process isn't the only reason the Yankees offense will take a hit in 2008. As previously stated, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both had monster career years last year. The likeliness of either one of those players putting up back to back career years are remote. They are especially remote for Posada, a catcher in his age 35 season.



And one factor which will especially hurt the Yankees offense is their decision to DH Hideki Matsui. Defensively, it may be a necessity as Matsui's defensive abilities have really fallen off. But offensively, it forces the Yankees to play Melky Cabrera in center. And Melky, more than any other Yankee, kills New York's offense.

Any outfielder who puts up an OPS of .718 should not have a starting job on a serious contender like the Yankees. Cabrera's offensive production as a regular player ranked near dead last among the league, even when compared to the weak hitting position of centerfield.

Four Reasons the Yankees Will Not Advance

The Royal Rooters spent quite a bit of their time engaged in debate about the rival Boston Braves. The Braves are now long gone and have been replaced by an even more bitter rival - the New York Yankees. So, in the spirit of The Royal Rooters, I thought I'd take a moment to put the Yankees in their place. Here are five reasons why the Yankees won't see the ALCS this year.

1. Lions In September, Mice In October - The Yankees have had some offensive trouble as well lately. Both Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera have hit below the Mendoza line in September. It's hard to predict even how their hottest hitters will do in October however.

Last year, A-Rod's best month of the year was September. He hit .358/.465/.691 for an OPS of 1.157. Come October however, A-Rod hit under .150 for the second postseason in a row. A-Rod has posted his highest strikeout total of any month this September, striking out more than once every four at bats. Could it be a sign of things to come?

The Yankees have lead the major leagues in runs scored, each of the past regular seasons. Come playoff time however, they haven't been able to average more than four runs a game in either one of the last seasons. 2006 was an especially horrendous series for the Yankees offensively, as they compiled a batting average of .246.

2. Bullpen Inferiority - The Yankees bullpen has been an issue for them all year. It's not really fair to compare the two team's bullpens. The Indians have one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Some of the bullpen arms they can trust include Betancourt (1.47 ERA), Perez (1.78 ERA), Lewis (2.13 ERA) and Fultz (3.03 ERA). Fultz is the only one of those pitchers who does not have more strikeouts than innings pitched.

When it comes to the Yankees however, they essentially only have two bullpen arms which they can trust. One of them is Mariano Rivera, but the other one is rookie Joba Chamberlain, who has never pitched in the postseason. Former Yankees set up man Luis Vizcaino, has really struggled lately. Perhaps his 77 appearances have caught up with him as he's had an ERA over 10 in September.

3. Sabathia and Carmona - Sabathia and Carmona are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league. Both pitchers were in the top 10 in the league in wins, ERA and WHIP. Sabathia could be especially tough for the Yankees. The Yankees have done poorly against lefty starters this season (19-19). They also haven't faced Sabathia in years. The Yankees will have to face those pitchers on the road, where they've gone 42-39 this year.

4. Starting Woes - Outside of Chien-Ming Wang, every member of the Yankees playoff rotation is a question mark. Pettitte, typically one of the best September pitchers in baseball, has really struggled down the stretch. In September, he's had an ERA of 5.86, a WHIP of 1.67 and a BAA of .324. That's good for his worst September in over nine years.

By the time Clemens gets the ball in game three of the ALDS, he will have gone 20 days without pitching. There have been jokes that Clemens will be pitching with his arm on a thread. His real issue however is his hamstring, which is an infamously pesky injury. The last time Clemens pitched in the postseason with a hurt hamstring, the results were disastrous. He blew up in the ALDS and then again in the World Series, lasting only 2 innings. His postseason ERA in that year of 2005, was 5.63.

And finally, we arrive at the Yankees fourth starter, Mike Mussina. Mussina lost his rotation spot after completely falling apart in August. After stringing together two quality starts in a row, Mussina again got lit up, allowing six runs on 11 hits in his last outing. He didn't get out of the fifth inning.