The Fenway Park Effect - Fenway Park and Power Hitting

(Matt Campbell/European Pressphoto Agency)

While Fenway Park is a good park for scoring runs and hitting for average, it's affects on power hitting are a little different. Fenway ranked as the easiest park the American League in which to score a run (+18%) and the easiest park in the majors for right-handed hitter's batting averages (+13%). On the other hand, it ranked as the third hardest park in the league in which to hit home runs (-13%) and the second hardest park in the league for left-handed hitters to hit a home run in (-21%).

Even though Fenway's Pesky Pole is only 302 feet from home plate, Pesky Pole is a pretty small target. Fenway Park is the only park in the majors in which the right fielder stands behind the right field foul pole. Overall, Fenway Park's right field is rather spacious, with the majority of the right field wall being at least 380 feet away from home plate.

Right-center gets as deep as 420 feet in what is officially dubbed "the Triangle". The name may not sound all that creative, but it predates that of "the Bermuda Triangle" by about 50 years. People were much more creative in the 60's.

Fenway Park hasn't always hindered home runs. No one's quite sure why it has become so unfriendly to power hitters, but the change seems to have coincided with recent Fenway Park renovations. These renovations likely altered the wind currents in the park. At least that's one of the only explanations I can think of given the fact that the actual dimensions of the field itself haven't changed one bit.

It was in 2006 that I first realized dramatic differences in home/away home run totals. In that year, Red Sox regulars hit 66 home runs at home and 98 home runs on the road. So did the Red Sox just play better on the road? No, in fact they won 13 less games on the road.

Park effects don't necessarily affect wins, just statistics. Cause while it may be 13% harder for a Red Sox player to hit a home run at Fenway Park, it's also 13% harder for any of their opponents to hit a home run there. That's not to say that teams can't be built around their parks. For example, the Athletics and Padres both pitch in extreme pitcher's parks and so have built their teams around pitching.

As already mentioned, Fenway Park hinders left-handed power hitters the most. In 2006, David Ortiz hit 18 home runs at home and 36 home runs on the road. Trot Nixon hit one home run at home and seven on the road. So it shouldn't be all that surprising that when J.D. Drew came over to the Red Sox last offseason, his home run total went down from 20 to 11. He hit almost twice as many home runs on the road as he did at Fenway.

But the largest surprise to me was to what degree Fenway Park hindered home runs for right-handed batters. Is there such a thing as a cheap home run over the Green Monster? Sure, but in reality those home runs are rather rare. More often, the Green Monster works to prevent home runs. It was 7% harder for a right-handed hitter to hit a home run in Fenway Park, than it was for them to hit a home run in a home run neutral park.

That's not to say the Green Monster doesn't help double totals. Of all American League parks last year, Fenway was the easiest one to hit a double in. Overall, it was 34% easier to hit a home run in than a neutral park. So Fenway Park probably works to increase slugging percentages for right-handed hitters at least.

I wish the Bill James Handbook provided separate doubles ratings for both right-handed and left-handed hitters in Fenway Park. Then I'd have a better understanding of just how much the Green Monster works to create doubles. It would also help to explain the effects of Fenway Park on left-handed hitter's batting averages.

2008 Bill James Hitter Projections

Jacoby Ellsbury - .320/.374/.436, 78 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 42 SB

Dustin Pedroia - .300/.369/.436, 77 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI
David Ortiz - .298/.407/.587, 109 R, 40 HR, 130 RBI
Manny Ramirez - .301/.405/.552, 99 R, 33 HR, 113 RBI
Mike Lowell - .282/.349/.459, 64 R, 17 HR, 81 RBI
J.D. Drew - .278/.393/.465, 90 R, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB
Kevin Youkilis - .290/.399/.454, 89 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI
Jason Varitek - .253/.349/.418, 60 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI
Julio Lugo - .266/.331/.380, 76 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 26 SB

The Handbook loves Ellsbury. He's spectacular at hitting for average and he'll be hitting in a very batting average friendly park. In his worst minor league stint in 2006, Ellsbury still hit .295 and got on base at a rate of .375. In case you're wondering why his runs are so low, this assumes that Ellsbury plays 125 games next season.

The Handbook also projects a somewhat severe decline in Lowell's totals (-.071 OPS). I'd have to agree that Lowell is unlikely to put up a season like 2007, as it was a career year. Perhaps Fenway's friendly confines can help his offensive numbers from declining sharply as he ages. The Handbook also projects a minor sophomore slump for Pedroia (-.018 OPS).

On the flip side, the Handbook sees rebound seasons for Manny (+.076 OPS), Drew (+.062 OPS) and Lugo (+.068). I wouldn't be surprised to see Lugo bounce back even more in the 9 hole. Lowell hit .305/.353/.483 in that spot in the order last year. Those numbers are similar to the ones he put up with Tampa Bay in 2005 and 2006.

According to these projections, the average OBP of a Red Sox regular would be .375. That, however, doesn't take into account the fact that different players will get different amounts of at bats. The two members of the Red Sox likely to have the lowest OBP's (Varitek and Lugo) will get the least amount of at bats at the bottom of the order.

Who knows how accurate these specific totals will be. What's more important to me, is how likely it is that the Red Sox offense will improve next year if these overall numbers are at all accurate. Ellsbury will likely make a large difference at the top of the order, both in scoring runs and in providing depth to the lineup. Youkilis, who routinely has OBP's around .385 will be one of the batters furthest down in the order. The Red Sox would no doubt also be helped by a healthy David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.

Will the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored? Probably not. But you have to be happy when a championship team's offense is likely to improve.

Sox On the Basepaths

Kelly O'Connor

In addition to providing projections for hitters and pitchers in 2008, the Bill James Handbook also rates the base running abilities of players. James provides every hitter in the majors a baserunning rating. These ratings are based on how factors such as bases taken, advances on outs, advancing extra bases on balls put in play, stolen bases, and outs made on the basepaths.

I'll provide two numbers. The first number is their baserunning rating. The second number is the percentage of the time that a player scored once they got on base (largely dependent on their spot in the order).

Jacoby Ellsbury: +13, 31%
Dustin Pedroia: +3, 34%
David Ortiz: +5, 30%
Manny Ramirez: -1, 29%
Mike Lowell: -11, 23%,
J.D. Drew: +6, 33%
Kevin Youkilis: +10, 28%
Jason Varitek: -23, 22%
Julio Lugo: +20, 29%

Alex Cora: 33%, +3
Coco Crisp: 35%, +37

Based on this information, you could make a case for Youkilis batting second in the order. He is a much better baserunner than Pedroia. Last year, Youkilis was rated the best baserunner on the team. For the second year in a row, Varitek was the team's worst baserunner. Overall in 2007, the Red Sox ranked as the 11th best baserunning team in the majors.

Will Man-Ram Return To Greatness In '08?

What do the years 1998 and 2007 have in common? Those are the last two years in which Manny Ramirez didn't lead American League outfielders in OPS. So what can we expect from the AL's best offensive outfielder in 2008? Well, that's the "beauty" of Manny; no one really knows.

Ramirez was hurt by two things last year. Firstly, he got off to an especially slow start at the plate. In the first half of the season Manny hit just .284/.385/.465. But this is nothing new. In 2005, Manny's best offensive season with the Red Sox, he hit only .275/.361/.549 in the first half.

Ramirez isn't always in the best shape when he comes into Spring Training. Often times, he'll show up late. And when he does show up, he doesn't always look ready to play. Will things be different in 2008? Who knows.

I will say one thing though, and I mean this half jokingly, half serious. If Manny shows up to Spring Training in shape and on time this year, for the first time in many years, he could be primed for quite the year.

There are signs that Ramirez is finally realizing he isn't 30 any more. According to Peter Gammons, Manny's become a "manicle workout warrior". Manicle is Gammons' word, not mine. Gammons provides a brief first hand account of Manny's workouts, describing them as "extremely difficult."

Then, there is the second issue which hampered Manny's performance in 2007. For the second year in a row, Ramirez missed significant time due to an injury. Ramirez has typically been rather consistent with his health, playing 150+ games a season. The last two years, however, his playing time has been more like 130 games a year. Fortunately, Manny's 2006 and 2007 injuries are likely unrelated.

In 2006, Manny Ramirez suffered from patellar tendinitis in his right knee. In 2007, he suffered from a strained oblique in his right leg. Each injury caused him to miss about a month of playing time. I'm no doctor, but in my opinion, these injuries are likely related to the age of Ramirez. Patellar tendinitis specifically isn't an injury usually seen in baseball players. It is more often seen in basketball and soccer players, as it is a sign of excessive wear on the knee joint.

Manny Ramirez is going to be 36-years-old in 2008. I think he's clearly at risk for injury, but at this point in his career I wouldn't label him an injury liability. Even when he has been hurt, he's played 130+ games. Getting into better physical shape could lower his risk for injury. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see him need a little time off in the second half of 2008.

If Ramirez plays a full season in 2008, I see no reason why he couldn't hit 40 home runs and drive in 120. He finally appears to be happy in Boston, and he'll be playing for a $20 million team option in 2009. Ramirez will also have some serious OBP guys in front of him in Ellsbury (.394), Pedroia (.380) and Ortiz (.445). And after Lowell's 2007 season, pitchers and managers may be more wary of pitching around Ramirez.

But even if he misses some time to injury, he could still lead American League outfielders in OPS as he did in 2006. Oh yeah, and seal his Hall of Fame candidacy with his 500th home run. Unless, of course, he pulls a Roger Clemens.

The Michaels Report

Preamble

In the wake of the Mitchell Report, many New York fans and writers have been left with a bitter taste in their mouth. The report named a total of 17 current and former Yankees who used PEDs. And even though former Red Sox fan favorites like Roger Clemens and Mo Vaugn were named, in addition to members of the 2007 championship team like Brendan Donnelly and Eric Gagne, it still wasn't enough.

Mitchell made the critical mistake of not naming enough Red Sox players. Some New York fans have even claimed that the Mitchell Report should be dubbed "the Red Sox Report". New York Sports writer Bill Madden made Mitchell's bias obvious when he pointed out that "not one prominent recent Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewer or Texas Ranger wound up in that report?"

Now I thought George W. Bush left his job with the Rangers. I remember something about him becoming president, and a Republican at that. But you know what, good of George Mitchell, a Democrat, to be bipartisan and keep Bush's 1994 interests in mind. If Mitchell wasn't so biased in other areas, he'd be a great example for our young politicians.

So for all of you who were unsatisfied with the Mitchell Report, I've undergone my own investigation. Now I know I'm not a respected former politician, and I never helped broker peace in Northern Ireland. In fact, most people have probably never heard of me.

I'll leave the accuracy of the report for you to ponder, although I doubt it will be debated on ESPN. I will do the one thing which will make this report legitimate in the eyes of millions of New York fans; I will name Red Sox.

I will not keep you waiting any longer. Without further ado, I present to you The Michaels Report.

Information Obtained Regarding Players' Possession or Use of Steroids and Human Growth Hormone

Jonathan Papelbon: Papelbon was heartbroken when in 2005, the Red Sox made him pitch at the Triple-A level before being called up. He couldn't understand why he wasn't called up after he posted a 2.48 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP at the Double-A level. He decided it wasn't his numbers, but rather his simply wasn't making enough of an impression.

And so, in 2005, Papelbon turned to fellow Baton Rouge native, and hGH user Andy Pettitte for help. Pettitte testified as the the secondary uses of hGH. He himself didn't use them to cheat, but rather to help out his team. Like Pettitte, Papelbon tried out hGH, but after finding that his illegal drug use didn't make him seem like "more of a team player", he turned to steroids.

Steroids Papelbon found an immediate use for. While he didn't need them to bulk up, they gave him a mental edge. And with the help of roid rage, he was able to make his famous "Papelstare". Red Sox scouts immediately noticed Papelbon's stare of pure rage and promoted him to the major leagues.

David Ortiz: Ortiz was released by the Minnesota Twins after his age 26 season, in which he slugged only .500. Ortiz showed promise in the minor leagues, but the Twins didn't feel they could afford him. So in order to make sure he caught on somewhere else, Ortiz invested his fortune of an arbitration contract into thousands of dollars worth of hGH and steroids.



We know Ortiz has used PEDs for a variety of reasons. First of all, he puts up good power numbers and plays for the Red Sox. Second of all, not only does he get walk-off hits, but he does so against Mariano Rivera. Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all time. In fact, he's so good that the only people capable of getting walk-off hits against him are Bill Mueller and cheaters.

Issues arose when certain "shrinking" side effects of steroids began to take their toll on the body and ego of Ortiz. In order to battle the damaging mental affects, Ortiz undertook the nickname "Big Papi" The nickname helps compensate for parts of Ortiz which are no longer that big.

Ortiz has previously said the only things he puts in his body to be big are "rice and beans". In the Dominican Republic those are known slang terms for hGH and steroids.

Hideki Okajima: Okajima experienced severe stress on his neck in Spring Training with the Red Sox in 2007. Trainers were worried that if Okajima continued his violent head jerks, his head was in danger of falling right off. So in order prevent that from happening, he began using hGH to strengthen his neck muscles. While hGH use without a prescription is illegal, Okajima swears that his illegal drug use is only for his own safety.

In April Okajima actually admitted to his steroids use, saying he was inspired by Bonds' use in the book Game of Shadows. But his interpreter tried to protect Okajima, mistranslating the statement to say "I'm willing to be a hero in the dark". MLB.com ran a story on the quote entitled "Okajima emerging out of the shadows".

Dustin Pedroia: Not only is he a good player on the Red Sox, but he has a receding hairline as well, a clear indication of steroids use. Besides, no one who is 5'8'' could be good unless they cheated.

Conclusions

It has become clear that the Red Sox have a significant and prolonged culture of PED use. The Mitchell Report demonstrated that various former Red Sox players used PEDs. When Paxton Crawford dropped a bag on the floor of the Red Sox clubhouse, and needles came out, members of the Red Sox laughed.

This is because the Red Sox are cheaters. It wasn't enough to know that Red Sox have used PEDs, peopled needed to know names of current Red Sox players. It was unfair that more Yankees than Red Sox players were named.

And in conclusion, use of PEDs by Red Sox players helps to explain why they've been better than the Yankees lately. No wonder they've won two World Series in the last four years. An asterisk should be placed next to them, and the Red Sox AL East championship last year. Just like the "real" home run king is Hank Aaron, the real AL East Champions are the New York Yankees.

Holiday Wrap Up

Not too much new news making the rounds. This is likely due to the fact that most teams are taking time off for the holidays. Legitimate free agent and trade talk probably won't start again until after the New Year.

A few days ago, it was reported that David Ortiz didn't think the Red Sox would trade for Johan Santana. What was lost on most readers, however, is that the comment was supposed to be a joke. He followed up his statement by saying, "[Minnesota] already gave Boston too many good things already. Me, and now Santana? No way." And Rotoworld added, "don't forget Kevin Garnett and Randy Moss."

Then today, Murray Chass had an "update" on the Santana talks. According to Chass, the Twins have realized that they aren't going to get Ian Kennedy, so they've inquired on Jeff Marquez. But this is more recycling of old news than it is an update. It was reported three weeks ago that Marquez had been substituted for Kennedy in trade talks with Santana. It was also reported that the Yankees still weren't willing to make a deal, even after the substitution.

If this is new news, then I must be psychic. I've already discussed the merits of a Yankees package including Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez.

Be sure to vote on the poll to the right, concerning Jon Lester's win total next year. The poll will be closed in four days and I'll be moving on to bigger and better things.