The Great Debate!

(Winslow Townson/Associated Press)

Jerry Crasnick opened up a huge can of worms when he dare uttered the words, "Joba Chamberlain vs. Clay Buchholz". He spoke to nine mystery personnel from the Eastern League, and reported that most of them preferred Chamberlain. And it's clear that Crasnick himself rather prefers the hefty Nebraska native. But he eluded to a great divide between talent evaluators, saying that Baseball America's Jim Callis and John Manuel are so divided on the issue, that they should duke it out in a steel cage match.

A was a bit surprised to read that there is so much debate, however, and I wonder how much of this is Callis trying to create a story. From everything I've read up until this point, Buchholz seemed rather decisively to be the preferred pitcher. Every ranking of MLB prospects that I've seen, including the rankings on Scouting Book, have ranked Buchholz as the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. And John Sickels of minorleagueball.com has echoed that sentiment. And I'll be surprised if the prospect rankings of Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus agree. But that doesn't mean the issue can't be discussed.

Clay Buchholz

The greatest strength of Buchholz is that he has three plus pitches. His strongest, and best strikeout pitch is his straight changeup. His second best pitch, which is also quite the strikeout pitch, is his dramatic hard 12-6 curve. And his third best pitch is his two-seam fastball.

Many make the mistake of saying that his straight fastball is his best pitch, as that's the pitch that he can occasionally get up to 97 mph. But Buchholz probably uses his four-seam fastball only once for every three or four times he uses his four-seamer.

Buchholz has an extreme over-the-top delivery which puts extra downward movement all of his pitches. This often makes it difficult for hitters to square up with the ball. Buchholz mixes in his pitches very well, not over relying on any one pitch, and gets an equal amount of outs on the ground and in the air.

Joba Chamberlain

The greatest strength of Chamberlain is that he can throw the ball very hard. This doesn't just mean that he can get his fastball up to triple digits. He has late zip on his fastball, and the speed of his slider makes it a strong strikeout pitch. Although, as a starter, Chamberlain's velocity will go down. Before making the change to the bullpen, Joba's fastball typically sat around 92-95 mph.

Unlike Buchholz, Chamberlain doesn't have a plus third pitch. And how he continues to develop his curveball and changeup, will likely have quite a bit to do with his future success at the major league level. Even Crasnick, who likes Chamberlain quite a bit, said that his curveball on a good day is only "above average" and on some days it's actually rather bad. Crasnick referred to Joba's changeup as a work-in-preogress. It is likely his worst pitch.

It will be interesting to see how Chamberlain mixes in his pitches as a starter, as it wasn't really something he had to do out of the pen. If he relies almost exclusively on his fastball and slider, the results could be like those of Randy Johnson in 2006.

One minor issue with Chamberlain, which doesn't exist with Buchholz, is his history of injuries. Chamberlain was quite heavy in college, and used rather heavily in the Big 10. He does have more wear on his body than the typical 22-year-old and he has had multiple injuries. It may not help that new Yankees manager Joe Girardi has a history of overworking his starters, as he did with Marlins pitchers Scott Olsen and Anibal Sanchez.

Conclusions

I think Chamberlain could immediately be a shut-down reliever at the major league level. But as a starter in 2008, he will be learning on the job. The reality of the situation is that Joba's third pitch is still pretty raw, and he may have had backwards development in it as a reliever in 2007.

I think Buchholz is a question mark as well, although I think he's proven more as a starter. I don't think it's transition to the role will be quite as rough. It's easy to be excited about these pitchers but they are very young and will be on limited innings workloads. I think a lot of people overestimate the kind of impacts these players will have in 2008.

Santana Talks Plodding Along, Sox Still Favorites

The St. Paul Pioneer Press is reporting that the Red Sox remain the favorites the land Johan Santana. As has been previously reported, the Twins would instantly accept a deal including both Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox, however, are apposed to including Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Santana.

The only real new news in the article, is that a deal may be imminent in the next few days. It's hard to tell whether that bit is based on fact, or was simply thrown in to get people to read the article, filled with mostly recycled news.

If the Red Sox could find a way to trade for Santana, without including Ellsbury, it would be a huge steal. It looks like the Twins are going to go with the same strategy that Billy Beane attempted in the Dan Haren trade. Rather than acquiring one Type A prospect, the Twins would prefer quantity to quality. Not that Jon Lester isn't a quality prospect, he was billed as the Red Sox top prospect only years ago.

Both sides will likely feel each other out for a little longer. Still, the Twins have waited things out for many weeks now and the Red Sox still have the best offer on the table. The Yankees, it appears, would not be willing to give up Joba Chamberlain and would be very hesitant to give up Phil Hughes or any high rated prospects in the lower minors. And the Twins appear to prefer Lester over Kennedy, because Lester is left-handed and has more major league experience.

Eventually, the Twins will tire of waiting things out, and likely accept the Red Sox offer. It appears more likely than not that the Red Sox will acquire the Twins ace. But anything could happen at the last minute. Perhaps the Yankees will change their mind if the Twins come to them saying they're about to deal Santana to the Red Sox.