The Polls Are Closed: What's Your Opinion On Santana?

The polls are now closed and well over 100 people have spoken. The second most popular selection in the poll was that neither Red Sox package of prospects was worth giving up for Santana. But 26 more voters (and 50% of the voters overall) said that they'd give up the Lester, Lowrie package for Santana. Only 9% of voters, however, were willing to give up Ellsbury and Lowrie in a package for Santana.

And I have to say that I actually agree with the results. While I would much prefer that the Red Sox keep Ellsbury, I would be happy with dealing Lester, Lowrie, Crisp and Masterson for Santana. I'm fully aware that Santana will come with a steep price tag, and I expect Lowrie to be a pretty good middle infielder for years to come. And Lester could potentially be a front of the rotation starter who costs more than $25 milllion a year less than Santana. But the addition of Santana to a Red Sox rotation consisting of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling and Buchholz, is just too exciting to pass up. I don't think it's realistic to expect even the best of pitching prospects to be as good as Santana. A pitcher of Santana's caliber only comes around once an era, not once every few years.

If the Red Sox were to acquire Santana, I wouldn't expect him to put up 2004 numbers. He's not going to put up a WHIP of 0.92 facing AL East hitters in Fenway Park. And I doubt that Santana will ever strike out 265 batters in a season again. But I would expect Santana to be one of the best three pitchers in the American League over the next five years. And that would give the Red Sox an absolutely lethal pitching rotation.

Of course, Santana would take up quite a bit of payroll. And there is a rather high risk in taking on a six or seven year contract with any pitcher. Just Thursday, Buster Olney said that he heard from a talent evaluator who suspects that Santana might have a health issue. But that is of course speculation at this point. Most talent evaluators probably have a different explanation for Santana's sub-par season last year.

How Does the Mets Package Stack Up?

Carlos Gomez (Jim McIsaac/Agence France-Presse)

The latest on Santana, courtesy of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, is that Twins officials have privately said that they expect Santana to be dealt by Spring Training. The article also says that while the Red Sox and Yankees are still involved, the Twins have showed the most interest in the Mets offer lately.

That Mets offer includes Carolos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The only problem is, most baseball fans I'm sure have little to no idea what kind of prospects those players are. And it doesn't help that respected prospect rankings by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus aren't due for another month. But thankfully, there's John Sickels of minorleagueball.com.

Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book. He looks at the top 20 prospects in every organization, and assigns them letter grades based on their value. When trying to compare trade packages made up mostly of prospects, these simplified prospect ratings can be very useful.

The Mets package for Santana is rumored to consist of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are attempting to get the Mets to add Fernando Martinez to the deal, but they aren't the one with leverage in the situation. The Twins have to unload Santana, they don't have the monetary resources to retain him.

So what kind of prospects are the Mets offering? Their package includes three pitchers in Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. Guerra received a rating of B+, making him the highest rated player in the package. But he's yet to pitch above the Single-A level. Molvey and Humber received grades of B and B- respectively. And both of them are likely to begin the season in Triple-A.

Carolos Gomez is the only position player in the deal. Sickels rated him a B prospect. He's kind of a toolsy outfielder with average plate discipline and little power.

So what's the positive of the Mets package? It offers more pitchers than any other package. All four players offered in the deal will also be cost controlled for many years to come. By accepting the Mets offer, the Twins would also be dealing Santana to a team outside of the American League.

On the other hand, the players in the package have virtually no major league experience. And none of the players that the Mets are offering have true star potential. There's no great position player or pitching prospect.

This makes it almost the opposite of the Red Sox package. The Red Sox are offering the package with the most major league experience when compared to all other packages available for Santana. And the Red Sox are also offering a package which has the most high quality talent out of any package available.

The Red Sox package of Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson contains two grade A- position players and a grade B pitcher. Or if the Twins want more major league experience and a wider range of players, they could go for the Red Sox package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. That package could potentially fill two rotation spots, the Twins need for a center fielder, and their need for a middle infielder who can actually hit.

Based on the talent available in the deals, I find it hard to believe that the Twins would prefer the Mets package based on the return alone. But the Twins would likely prefer to deal Santana to the National League. And Santana would prefer to go to the National League as well, where he'd likely dominate weaker hitting competition.

Red Sox Rookie Program

The Red Sox are currently holding their second annual Rookie Program. The program is designed to help prepare some of the team's best upper level talents for the major leagues. It involves work outs, drills, and programs to prepare the players for the pressures of the major leagues.

Clay Buchholz is visibly larger than he was this time last year. He's put on about 13 pounds in preparations for the wear of a full major league season. Devern Hansack was also invited to the program. He's a great story, being one of the few natives of Nicaragua ever to play in the majors. But other than that, there isn't too much news to come out of the program.

The Boston Globe did have some good pictures of the workouts and drills though.

LHP Dustin Richardson (John Tlumacki)

Richardson and Buchholz (John Tlumacki)

SS Jed Lowrie (Charles Krupa)

RHP Devern Hansack (Charles Krupa)

So, ready for Spring Training?

With Winter Winding Down, Twins Aren't Any Closer To A Deal

I'm sorry, but if you're not entertained by the Santana Saga, then you haven't been paying attention. I feel like the Twins should be nominated for a Soapy Award at this point; although they'd have some stiff competition in Hank Streinbrenner. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, or are perhaps a little confused, here's a recap of the happenings the past few days.

On Friday, the Yankees reportedly weren't talking to the Twins about Santana. Then just yesterday, the Yankees repordetly talked to the Twins, but just to let them know that they took their offer off the table. Then less than eight hours later, Hank Streinbrenner weighed in to let everyone know that while "there was no official offer on the table at this time", he hasn't taken his offer off the table.

In case that left you confused as well, Hank did in fact clarfiy the statement. According to Howlin' Hank, he couldn't have taken an offer off the table because "there wasn't an official offer anyway." Sometimes I wonder if Hank just says whatever he thinks will get him the most attention.

So what's developed since yesterday? Well, more of nothing mostly. According to the Star-Ledger Staff, neither the Mets or Yankees appear willing to make a deal with the Twins unless they lower their demands. The Red Sox have been at that same stage in negotiations for some time. So what's this mean?

All three teams appear to have made their final offers. The Red Sox are offering a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and also a package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, but not a package containing both Lester and Ellsbury. The Yankees would offer a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez, but not a package including both Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And the Mets are offering a package of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra but not a package including Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

Either team could quickly make a deal, by giving up the extra guy. But I don't see why any team would. The Red Sox likely believe that they have the best offer. Hank Streinbrenner has said that the thinks his team has the best offer. And the Mets probably don't feel a need to add a fifth prospect to their deal given the fact that they're the only National League team in the running, and they're Santana's desired landing point. Furthmore, they're probably the only team of the trhee with a realistic chance of being able to acquire Erik Bedard.

I seriously doubt that the Twins will go into the season without having dealt Santana. Whether he's bluffing or not, Santana has said that he won't accept a midseason trade. So if the Twins don't deal him before the season begins, the Twins run the risk of getting nothing but two sandwhich picks in the draft when Santana walks.

The Boston Herald, with the help of Baseball America, gave a run down on the three packages which the Twins could currently select from. The article classifies the Mets package as risky, given the fact that most of the players are years removed from being major league ready. The article also classifies the Yankees package as lightweight, given the fact that it includes one blue chip player and two throw-in caliber players.

And I think most fans outside of New York would agree with both statements. If the Twins want the safest return for Satnana, it would likely be the Red Sox package. The Red Sox package includes the most major league ready talent, and fills the most immediate needs for the Twins. The Yankees package offers the Twins a possible ace, but little else. And the Mets package offers the Twins the most overall talent, although little to none of it is major league ready.

For any Yankees fans worried about losing Phil Hughes, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Accepting a package of Hughes, Melky and Marquez probably wouldn't be in the best interests of the Twins. And there's absolutely no chance that the Yankees would give up both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a package for Santana. Although, if it's the Red Sox that acquire Santana, Yankees fans may be wishing otherwise for the next six or seven years.

Gammons Against Santana Deal

In his chat, Peter Gammons provided his opinion on a possible Red Sox trade for Johan Santana. In the words of Gammons:

"The more I’ve thought about the Santana deal, the more I’m convinced it’s not a great idea. Whether it’s the Ellsbury deal or the Lester deal, the Sox would still be giving up three young players and I don’t discount the importance that Lowrie will play in the next couple of years."

I definitely agree that a deal for Santana including Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie would not be in the best interests of the team. I love Johan Santana but dealing the Red Sox two best position prospects in order to acquire him would clearly hurt the team's future. It makes me nervous that this deal may still be on the table.

I think the Red Sox could absorb the loss of Lester a little more easily, given the team's superb pitching staff. But either way, the Red Sox will be dealing Jed Lowrie. If Lowrie's major league production is anywhere near his .850+ Minor League OPS's, Lowrie would become one of the best shortstops in baseball.

Top 5 Red Sox Prospects

1. Clay Buchholz, 23-Year-Old RHP

Clay Buchholz might just be the best pitching prospect in baseball, so he's a shoo-in for best Red Sox prospect. Buchholz to this point in his career has done everything right. Throughout the minors, he walked only 2.43 batters and struck out 11.23 hitters in every nine innings of work.

What makes Buchholz so special is the strength of his secondary pitches. The young pitcher's fastball sat in the low-90's for most of his career. At the end of 2007, however, Buchholz's fastball was sitting at 96 mph and it's his third best pitch. His arsenal of secondary pitches is what will likely make him an affective major league pitcher.

That arsenal includes two change ups, a curve ball, and a slider. His straight change up is his best out pitch. It sits at around 80 mph, about 15 mph off his fastball. Buchholz also possesses a strike out 12-6 curve ball which buckles the knees of hitters. For reference, see the last out of Buccholz's no-hitter, in which Nick Markakis sat helplessly with his bat on his shoulder.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, 24-Year-Old CF

After being a World Series hero, winning the Rookie of the Year Award doesn't sound all that exciting. But going into the season, Ellsbury is one of the most likely candidates. He's all a team could ask for in a leadoff hitter and center fielder. He's a left-handed slap hitter, who consistently puts the ball in play, gets on base, and advances on the bases once he gets on.

Ellsbury's also a defensive center fielder worthy of taking over for Coco Crisp. While he's not quite at Crisps's level, he's still one of the best defensive center fielders in the majors. His arm is only average, but it's pretty accurate. After Crisp and Damon, any arm at all is an improvement.

As of yet, Ellsbury doesn't have much power, but he is young. If he eventually develops 15-20 home run power, he has the potential to be one of the best center fielders in the majors. But as of now, his OBP and speed work perfectly at the top of the Red Sox batting order, even if he isn't going to hit home runs.

3. Jed Lowrie, 23-Year-Old SS

Lowrie possesses the plate discipline typical of so many Red Sox position players. Over his minor league career, he's gotten on base at a rate of .386. What makes Lowrie especially valuable though, is his developing power.

Lowrie slugged over .500 last year in significant time at both Double-A and Triple-A. That degree of power is incredible for a middle infielder. In fact, only 5 middle infielders slugged .500 or batter last year at the major league level. Lowrie's power, combined with the fact that he's a switch hitter, makes him a valuable commodity. So the Red Sox might look to capitalize on his trade value while it is high.

Defensively, Lowrie is an average shortstop. He could be the Red Sox shortstop of the future, but the Red Sox would like him to improve on his throwing accuracy. If he is dealt to Minnesota, he would likely start the major league season as a second baseman where his throws would be shorter.

4. Justin Masterson, 22-Year-Old RHP

Like any sinkerball pitcher, Masterson's career success is difficult to predict. But Masterson isn't the typical sinkerballer. He allows very few hits or walks, and has struck out more than a hitter an inning at every stop but Lancaster, which is notorious for being hitter friendly. Masterson's upside is tremendous.

Similar to Derek Lowe, Masterson has shown great potential both as a starter and reliever. Masterson has the strange ability to vary the speed of his sinker from 84-94, and he gets an insane amount of ground balls. He has a good slider, and a work-in-progress changeup. If he develops those pitchers further, he could make a quality top of the rotation starter.

Even at this point in Masterson's development however, he may be able to play a major league role similar to that of Julian Tavarez. Based on a team's needs, Masterson could be an average reliever or a back of the rotation starter.

5. Ryan Kalish, 19-Year-Old CF

At only 19 years of age, Kalish is already a four-tool-athlete, with the build to possibly develop power as well when he ages. Kalish was just drafted in 2006, and the organization worked with him quite a bit prior to his 2007 season. The work appears to have paid off. Looking at Kalish's Single-A line of .368/.471/.540, you'd think he played at Lancaster, but he in fact put those numbers up over 87 at bats in Single-A Lowell.


Kalish is a very exciting player for his age. He's got all the raw talent, including the ability to steal 18 bases last year in 23 games. If he develops the mental aspect of his game to match his physical abilities, he could have a bright future. He probably projects best as a right-fielder for the Red Sox, given his strong arm. If the Red Sox are patient with him and give him a full year at every level of the minors, he might be ready to take over for Drew in 2012, or perhaps even sooner.

Santana - Why the Red Sox Package Makes Sense

When news of a possible Santana deal first broke, Peter Gammons speculated that it would take a package including Chien-Ming Wang or Robinson Cano, plus a premium prospect. Months later, the Twins are struggling just to get a premium prospect. I think it's fair to say that the demand for Santana isn't as high as many expected it to be.

This is likely due to a few factors. First of all, the salary that Santana would command really limits to the teams he could be dealt to. And the list of teams that the Twins could match up with in a trade is even further limited by Santana's no-trade clause. It's unclear which teams Santana would accept being dealt to, but most likely due to financial restrictions, only a few teams showed serious interest in Santana: the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As for a Mets, they simply didn't have the prospects to be a good match. And so any Santana deal would require them to give up a major piece of their major league team such as Jose Reyes. To no one's surprise, the Mets didn't bite.

As for the Yankees, Brian Cashman has become very conservative about trading young prospects. The Twins had to fight so hard to get Phil Hughes included in a deal, that once the did, the Yankees were unwilling to budge on any more talent. The best package that the Yankees seem willing to provide is a rather weak package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez. And if Cashman had his way, Hughes wouldn't even be on the table.

So that leaves the Twins with the Red Sox. Like other teams, the Red Sox aren't willing to offer a star major league player in return for Santana. But the Red Sox do offer one thing that other teams don't, multiple quality prospects in Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. In addition to offering multiple quality prospects, the players the Red Sox are offering, would also fill the most holes for the Twins.

The Twins need a center fielder, a middle infielder, and since they've already dealt Matt Garza, they could use multiple pitching prospects. Ideally, those pitching prospects would be able to help out the major league team either in 2008, or fairly soon after.

The quantity available in the Red Sox package makes sense for the Twins for multiple reasons. First of all, the more cost controlled players the Twins receive in a deal, the more money they'll be saving on the free agent market. This has to be an utmost concern for a cost conscious team such as the Twins.

By dealing Santana for multiple quality prospects, it also diversifies the Twins investment. You could consider Johan Santana capital, and the Twins would be trading in that capital for stocks, which the they hope develop into good investments. Well, if the Twins were to trade Santana for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Marquez, what would happen if Hughes didn't work out as well as he's projected to? They'd lose almost all of the value that they received in the deal.

On the other hand, if the Twins were to acquire Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, they could still get a good deal of value out of the deal if one of those prospects didn't work out. Would the Twins be getting equal value for Santana? No. But the Twins are in a rather odd position in that regard.

If the Twins do not trade Johan Santana, they would not be able to afford him when he hits the free agent market next year. And if Santana leaves via free agency, which he almost certainly would, the Twins would receive only two sandwich draft picks for compensation. That chances of those draft picks being as valuable as Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson are very remote.

The Twins could go into the season with Santana, hoping to trade him at the deadline, but Santana has said that the wouldn't allow a trade mid-season. So the Twins will likely have to take whatever the best offer is on the table going into next season. Currently, that offer appears to be that of the Red Sox, and there are no indications that other teams are willing to offer a better deal.

I expect the Twins to play poker a little longer, hoping the Red Sox will up their offer with the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury. In the end, however, the Twins will likely have to give up their bluff, as they aren't the ones holding the cards. They simply don't have the money to afford Santana, so they'll have to get the best value possible for him. And in order to do that, they'll have to trade him soon, even though it's not the best market for him.

Buchholz Ranked As Top Pitching Prospect In Baseball

Scouting Book ranked Buchholz as the number one pitching prospect in baseball, and the number three prospect overall. He was ranked behind only Reds outfield prospect Jay Bruce and St. Louis prospect Colby Rasmus. I'm eager to see rankings from other sites such as Baseball Prospectus.

Scouting Book also ranked other Red Sox prospects. Other member of the Red Sox who were on the list include Jacboy Ellsbury (22nd), Lars Anderson (45th), Justin Masterson (47th), Michael Bowden (50th), Jed Lowrie (70th), Oscar Tejeda (90th), Daniel Bard (110th), and Craig Hansen (119th). Wait, Craig who?

Red Sox Remain In Lead For Santana

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins and Red Sox continued to talk yesterday. The Twins reportedly have the most interest in Jacoby Ellsbury, and any Ellsbury package would likely include Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, and another prospect.

Meanwhile, talks with the Yankees remain unproductive. To give you an idea of just how unproductive they've been, Kei Igawa is one of the names that has come up. As for the Mets and Angels, there really isn't any new news. Christensen even speculates that the Mets be be in trade talks simply for PR reasons.

In the end, the Red Sox may win Santana by default. A package of Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and a prospect may not be worth Santana, but it fits the needs of the Twins a lot better than a package of just Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect. Other than being cost controlled, Melky Cabrera isn't all that desirable. Defensively he's average, and offensively he ranked 10th of of the 13th in OPS among centerfielders that qualified last year.

I certainly don't like the idea of trading away Jacoby Ellsbury, but his value may never be higher than it is now. And looking at some of Santana's numbers over the years, it's easy to be persuaded.

Over the past four years, Santana has averaged 228 innings per year, an ERA of 2.89, WHIP of 0.99 and 246 strikeouts a year. Not to mention, he won two Cy Young Awards unanimously in 2004 and 2006.