How Does the Mets Package Stack Up?

Carlos Gomez (Jim McIsaac/Agence France-Presse)

The latest on Santana, courtesy of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, is that Twins officials have privately said that they expect Santana to be dealt by Spring Training. The article also says that while the Red Sox and Yankees are still involved, the Twins have showed the most interest in the Mets offer lately.

That Mets offer includes Carolos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The only problem is, most baseball fans I'm sure have little to no idea what kind of prospects those players are. And it doesn't help that respected prospect rankings by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus aren't due for another month. But thankfully, there's John Sickels of minorleagueball.com.

Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book. He looks at the top 20 prospects in every organization, and assigns them letter grades based on their value. When trying to compare trade packages made up mostly of prospects, these simplified prospect ratings can be very useful.

The Mets package for Santana is rumored to consist of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra. The Twins are attempting to get the Mets to add Fernando Martinez to the deal, but they aren't the one with leverage in the situation. The Twins have to unload Santana, they don't have the monetary resources to retain him.

So what kind of prospects are the Mets offering? Their package includes three pitchers in Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. Guerra received a rating of B+, making him the highest rated player in the package. But he's yet to pitch above the Single-A level. Molvey and Humber received grades of B and B- respectively. And both of them are likely to begin the season in Triple-A.

Carolos Gomez is the only position player in the deal. Sickels rated him a B prospect. He's kind of a toolsy outfielder with average plate discipline and little power.

So what's the positive of the Mets package? It offers more pitchers than any other package. All four players offered in the deal will also be cost controlled for many years to come. By accepting the Mets offer, the Twins would also be dealing Santana to a team outside of the American League.

On the other hand, the players in the package have virtually no major league experience. And none of the players that the Mets are offering have true star potential. There's no great position player or pitching prospect.

This makes it almost the opposite of the Red Sox package. The Red Sox are offering the package with the most major league experience when compared to all other packages available for Santana. And the Red Sox are also offering a package which has the most high quality talent out of any package available.

The Red Sox package of Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson contains two grade A- position players and a grade B pitcher. Or if the Twins want more major league experience and a wider range of players, they could go for the Red Sox package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. That package could potentially fill two rotation spots, the Twins need for a center fielder, and their need for a middle infielder who can actually hit.

Based on the talent available in the deals, I find it hard to believe that the Twins would prefer the Mets package based on the return alone. But the Twins would likely prefer to deal Santana to the National League. And Santana would prefer to go to the National League as well, where he'd likely dominate weaker hitting competition.

With Winter Winding Down, Twins Aren't Any Closer To A Deal

I'm sorry, but if you're not entertained by the Santana Saga, then you haven't been paying attention. I feel like the Twins should be nominated for a Soapy Award at this point; although they'd have some stiff competition in Hank Streinbrenner. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, or are perhaps a little confused, here's a recap of the happenings the past few days.

On Friday, the Yankees reportedly weren't talking to the Twins about Santana. Then just yesterday, the Yankees repordetly talked to the Twins, but just to let them know that they took their offer off the table. Then less than eight hours later, Hank Streinbrenner weighed in to let everyone know that while "there was no official offer on the table at this time", he hasn't taken his offer off the table.

In case that left you confused as well, Hank did in fact clarfiy the statement. According to Howlin' Hank, he couldn't have taken an offer off the table because "there wasn't an official offer anyway." Sometimes I wonder if Hank just says whatever he thinks will get him the most attention.

So what's developed since yesterday? Well, more of nothing mostly. According to the Star-Ledger Staff, neither the Mets or Yankees appear willing to make a deal with the Twins unless they lower their demands. The Red Sox have been at that same stage in negotiations for some time. So what's this mean?

All three teams appear to have made their final offers. The Red Sox are offering a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and also a package of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson, but not a package containing both Lester and Ellsbury. The Yankees would offer a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez, but not a package including both Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And the Mets are offering a package of Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and Deolis Guerra but not a package including Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

Either team could quickly make a deal, by giving up the extra guy. But I don't see why any team would. The Red Sox likely believe that they have the best offer. Hank Streinbrenner has said that the thinks his team has the best offer. And the Mets probably don't feel a need to add a fifth prospect to their deal given the fact that they're the only National League team in the running, and they're Santana's desired landing point. Furthmore, they're probably the only team of the trhee with a realistic chance of being able to acquire Erik Bedard.

I seriously doubt that the Twins will go into the season without having dealt Santana. Whether he's bluffing or not, Santana has said that he won't accept a midseason trade. So if the Twins don't deal him before the season begins, the Twins run the risk of getting nothing but two sandwhich picks in the draft when Santana walks.

The Boston Herald, with the help of Baseball America, gave a run down on the three packages which the Twins could currently select from. The article classifies the Mets package as risky, given the fact that most of the players are years removed from being major league ready. The article also classifies the Yankees package as lightweight, given the fact that it includes one blue chip player and two throw-in caliber players.

And I think most fans outside of New York would agree with both statements. If the Twins want the safest return for Satnana, it would likely be the Red Sox package. The Red Sox package includes the most major league ready talent, and fills the most immediate needs for the Twins. The Yankees package offers the Twins a possible ace, but little else. And the Mets package offers the Twins the most overall talent, although little to none of it is major league ready.

For any Yankees fans worried about losing Phil Hughes, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Accepting a package of Hughes, Melky and Marquez probably wouldn't be in the best interests of the Twins. And there's absolutely no chance that the Yankees would give up both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a package for Santana. Although, if it's the Red Sox that acquire Santana, Yankees fans may be wishing otherwise for the next six or seven years.

Santana News Is Back, Yanks Still Unlikely

Despite news to the contrary for the past month, many fans, and even writers have speculated that the Red Sox are only involved in Santana talks to drive up the price for the Yankees. Why would the Red Sox be involved to drive up the price for the team least involved in Santana talks? Peter Abraham reiterated today, that "there are no indications that the Yankees will suddenly get back into the mix for Johan Santana."

You have to be careful with news like this, as teams routinely provide misinformation to the media. But to anyone who still thinks the Yankees are heavily involved in Santana talks, I challenge you to provide one piece of evidence that the Yankees have been involved since the Winter Meetings. In the words of a Yankees team source, "we pulled out in Nashville, and we haven't put an offer back on the table." The New York Post, as well as several other sources, have confirmed that the two teams "have not seriously discussed players with the Twins" since the winter meetings."

The package which the Yankees offered the Twins is widely believed to involve Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez. But the New York Daily News reported back in early December, that the Yankees took that deal off the table. These seems to confirm other reports that the Yankees haven't had a deal on the table since the Winter Meetings.

So why exactly would the Red Sox be driving up the price? In reality, the Red Sox have been the team most involved in Santana talks. And without competition, there's a good chance that the Red Sox current package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson is the best offer available to the Twins. The Red Sox would be crazy not to take that deal, even if they were involved just to drive up Santana's price.

Need Links!

I have begun a link section but as of now, it looks pretty sorry. The only links I currently have are:

The newly added Baseball Time In Arlington
Boston Dirt Dogs
Boston Red Thoughts
Mets Prospectus
MetsSox
MN Twins Talk
Peter's Red Sox Forever
Pinstriped Scranton
Sox and Dawgs
Surviving Grady
The Bottom Line
The Mighty Quinn Media Machine
We Should Be GM's
Young Sports

I would like to have at least one link for every major league team, and would love to have links for minor league teams as well. I currently have links representing the Red Sox, Rangers, Mets, Twins, Phillies, Dodgers, and Scranton/Wilkes-Bare Yankees. If anyone wants me to add their link, just drop me a comment or e-mail. I'm always up for exchanging links.

Or if anyone has some good minor league team links, please let me know! Thank you.

Holiday Wrap Up

Not too much new news making the rounds. This is likely due to the fact that most teams are taking time off for the holidays. Legitimate free agent and trade talk probably won't start again until after the New Year.

A few days ago, it was reported that David Ortiz didn't think the Red Sox would trade for Johan Santana. What was lost on most readers, however, is that the comment was supposed to be a joke. He followed up his statement by saying, "[Minnesota] already gave Boston too many good things already. Me, and now Santana? No way." And Rotoworld added, "don't forget Kevin Garnett and Randy Moss."

Then today, Murray Chass had an "update" on the Santana talks. According to Chass, the Twins have realized that they aren't going to get Ian Kennedy, so they've inquired on Jeff Marquez. But this is more recycling of old news than it is an update. It was reported three weeks ago that Marquez had been substituted for Kennedy in trade talks with Santana. It was also reported that the Yankees still weren't willing to make a deal, even after the substitution.

If this is new news, then I must be psychic. I've already discussed the merits of a Yankees package including Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Jeff Marquez.

Be sure to vote on the poll to the right, concerning Jon Lester's win total next year. The poll will be closed in four days and I'll be moving on to bigger and better things.